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CNN Reporting 20% Tax On Mexican Imports To Pay For Wall. LET THE TRADE WAR BEGIN! (Original Post) KittyWampus Jan 2017 OP
He will starve us before we can get him impeached... pbmus Jan 2017 #1
Q: who could have predicted this? etherealtruth Jan 2017 #2
I anticipate a black market smuggling operation in "real sugar" Coca Cola. brooklynite Jan 2017 #3
We used to cross the border to buy Mexican marybourg Jan 2017 #6
Spread the good news. dalton99a Jan 2017 #4
Trade war...here it comes!! workinclasszero Jan 2017 #5
Oh no!! Avocado tax! mainer Jan 2017 #7
This is a VERY bad idea... Hayabusa Jan 2017 #8
trump and his goons didn't think beyond wanting to wound the Mexican president spanone Jan 2017 #12
Not to mention Hayabusa Jan 2017 #16
i'm sure don hasn't been in a grocery store in.......possibly never. spanone Jan 2017 #17
Shit, he has people Hayabusa Jan 2017 #20
Yeah but not for his voters. His voters will definitely feel the impact of a trade war anneboleyn Jan 2017 #38
Your link says 70% of our fresh produce comes from Mexico. KittyWampus Jan 2017 #21
So... we're paying for it ???!!! C_U_L8R Jan 2017 #9
Oh, FFS Warpy Jan 2017 #10
Two can play that game herding cats Jan 2017 #11
Is this a tariff on things like cars JDC Jan 2017 #13
Don hasn't thought this through. His suits are made in Mexico. Vinca Jan 2017 #14
Does he ever think anything through? Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Jan 2017 #82
Worried this will help him win the Rust Belt again in 2020 Alhena Jan 2017 #15
It won't if they're paying 20% more for food. KittyWampus Jan 2017 #23
Right because all those 30 dollar an hour factory jobs for HS dropouts with full bennies workinclasszero Jan 2017 #25
The rust belt will pay, precarious trade balances are at stake. gordianot Jan 2017 #34
Oh, they'd suffer from this, too. herding cats Jan 2017 #51
US Mexico trade analyzed by sector and import/export in billions of dollars Bernardo de La Paz Jan 2017 #94
It won't when tariff realities hit their wallets. They will scream when wal-mart prices jump anneboleyn Jan 2017 #60
Probably so, hope so anyway Alhena Jan 2017 #64
maybe some folks will finally understand how trade works ( silver lining) JHan Jan 2017 #76
Nope. Mex car parts go into US car assembly jobs. Bernardo de La Paz Jan 2017 #96
Trump is going to cause the US econoomy great harm !!! Vinnie From Indy Jan 2017 #18
How long before Mexico retaliates with a 20% tax on stuff from the USA? workinclasszero Jan 2017 #19
Mexico saw this coming... rainbow4321 Jan 2017 #33
Sure workinclasszero Jan 2017 #58
Interesting how this will play with those Wellstone ruled Jan 2017 #22
Stock market tanks tomorrow Drahthaardogs Jan 2017 #24
Uh oh.... workinclasszero Jan 2017 #26
If you have a pension or a 401K, you do. nt tblue37 Jan 2017 #91
Nope it got wiped out by the last republican administration workinclasszero Jan 2017 #92
So it looks like we pay for the wall after all...Through higher prices for food and other things. Auntie Bush Jan 2017 #27
Holy Guacamole!!! HopeAgain Jan 2017 #28
Thank goodness we grow our own here in California. Iggo Jan 2017 #44
There will be a run on Mexican beer. n/t rzemanfl Jan 2017 #29
Sol beer... Else You Are Mad Jan 2017 #61
I like Corona Light HoneyBadger Jan 2017 #69
Unless you're a woman, then he may have other ideas about what to do with what you drink. rzemanfl Jan 2017 #84
Which idiot 'free trade' Republicans are going to vote for this? jeanmarc Jan 2017 #30
They don't need to vote. Presidents have the power to create tariffs. Buckeye_Democrat Jan 2017 #37
It's not an expressed right in the Constitution, but it seems it is law somehow jeanmarc Jan 2017 #42
I doubt Congress will do anything if they don't have to. Buckeye_Democrat Jan 2017 #46
It is questionable sarisataka Jan 2017 #47
Tax on Americans... or tariffs on imports? Buckeye_Democrat Jan 2017 #52
That phrase sarisataka Jan 2017 #71
We'll see how it goes. Buckeye_Democrat Jan 2017 #79
He will seek a congressional vote (per CNN) MarvinGardens Jan 2017 #83
A vote, or just wanting their input for a plan? Buckeye_Democrat Jan 2017 #86
Mexico is bound to retaliate with a 20% tariff of their own. Charles Bukowski Jan 2017 #31
Yup..the ex Pres promised that in an interview last night rainbow4321 Jan 2017 #35
Wait till he gets around to China workinclasszero Jan 2017 #39
China... Else You Are Mad Jan 2017 #67
You are so right friend workinclasszero Jan 2017 #72
Wonder when the Mexican President will build a wall to keep deplorable Americans out of Mexico. democratisphere Jan 2017 #32
Maybe Mexico will form an alliance with China. gordianot Jan 2017 #40
Anything that Mexico manufactures, China can do for less HoneyBadger Jan 2017 #54
I feel bad for Mexico. His behavior indicated he wanted to make an example of a country LittleBlue Jan 2017 #36
So Mexico hikes its prices 20% and we end up where we start out: Paying For The (Ineffective) Wall? Iggo Jan 2017 #41
How does this make Mexico pay? sarisataka Jan 2017 #43
Trade doesn't expand with other countries that fast. Calista241 Jan 2017 #49
Mexico already has trade agreements with other countries OnDoutside Jan 2017 #62
I could see countries like China sarisataka Jan 2017 #65
Ensenada Chico Man Jan 2017 #95
Yep, so they'd have to expand the port. Calista241 Jan 2017 #98
Not legal. WTO has jurisdiction grantcart Jan 2017 #45
Fuhrer Trump don't need no stinkin WTO workinclasszero Jan 2017 #48
Except that the US set up the system and up until now has won all its cases but one grantcart Jan 2017 #53
I never anticipated a reality show clown/con man/Russian mole workinclasszero Jan 2017 #75
Yes he can, sadly. Buckeye_Democrat Jan 2017 #55
WTO doesn't enforce NAFTA, it enforces GATT grantcart Jan 2017 #73
Article 2205, right in the NAFTA agreement. Buckeye_Democrat Jan 2017 #80
NAFTA is a bilateral or multilateral agreement grantcart Jan 2017 #88
I would imagine both Canada and the US will be announcing Calista241 Jan 2017 #56
Extremely doubtful, Canada just signed a free trade agreement with the EU grantcart Jan 2017 #77
Canada will not put their access to the US market at risk Calista241 Jan 2017 #90
Wonder how his supporters will react to Walmart doubling prices? sinkingfeeling Jan 2017 #50
Can we please get some... Else You Are Mad Jan 2017 #57
Mexico and China Bad. Canada and Russia Good. Yavin4 Jan 2017 #59
Don't worry.. Else You Are Mad Jan 2017 #68
We import $291 billion from Mexico each year, 20% is nearly $60 billion HoneyBadger Jan 2017 #63
Mexico won't really be paying for it. Americans will because any sinkingfeeling Jan 2017 #70
Here comes the inflation, get ready for fruit to skyrocket. sarcasmo Jan 2017 #66
20% will be the tax,and then the Kroger food "tax" Bengus81 Jan 2017 #74
Whats sad is his idiotic voters are out there on twitter and places Thrill Jan 2017 #78
Looks like a good time to stock up on non-perishables. dgibby Jan 2017 #81
Trump the stupid fuckhead Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Jan 2017 #85
Way to KILL the auto industry. Atman Jan 2017 #87
Mexico's economy is 1/15th the size of ours. Motown_Johnny Jan 2017 #89
Spicer said "the President made a decision". An hour later he said it was "only one option". . . . n Bernardo de La Paz Jan 2017 #93
S&P 500 down for the day, was even until the announcement. Bernardo de La Paz Jan 2017 #97
Trying to figure out who is the cluesless one here. GoCubsGo Jan 2017 #99
It is a shame that we cannot put a 20% tax on illegal cartel imports HoneyBadger Jan 2017 #100

marybourg

(12,634 posts)
6. We used to cross the border to buy Mexican
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:01 PM
Jan 2017

cookies. They tasted just like the cookies of our childhood.

anneboleyn

(5,611 posts)
38. Yeah but not for his voters. His voters will definitely feel the impact of a trade war
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:26 PM
Jan 2017

Of course the new corporate overlords won't so Trump probably won't care when his voters start crying about food prices, "let them eat cake"

Warpy

(111,351 posts)
10. Oh, FFS
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:06 PM
Jan 2017

We know the wall won't work. We know it will fuck up animal migration. We know it's a goddamned boondoggle that will make Trump's cronies richer. We know it's not necessary because as our economy has worsened and Mexico's economy has strengthened, much of the flow has reversed.

Somebody needs to tell this man-baby NO.

And wait until suburbanites around NYC find how much their out of season fruits and veg are going to cost!

herding cats

(19,568 posts)
11. Two can play that game
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:06 PM
Jan 2017

US goods exported to Mexico in 2015 were $236 billion. There's no data for 2016 yet.

Also, in these types of disputes it's always the consumers who pay the increase in the end.

Alhena

(3,030 posts)
15. Worried this will help him win the Rust Belt again in 2020
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:08 PM
Jan 2017

let's not kid ourselves, this will play very well among Rust Belt workers. Hard for us to get the presidency back without the Rust Belt.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
25. Right because all those 30 dollar an hour factory jobs for HS dropouts with full bennies
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:15 PM
Jan 2017

Will be falling from the skies next week because Trumps a fucking idiot.

Sure thing.

gordianot

(15,245 posts)
34. The rust belt will pay, precarious trade balances are at stake.
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:21 PM
Jan 2017

When you hear someone say they are voting for a candidate who says the same thing "I" say you may just get what you ask for. Causality is an arcane mystery for these people.

herding cats

(19,568 posts)
51. Oh, they'd suffer from this, too.
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:42 PM
Jan 2017

Not just the increased prices in food and goods they purchase, but in lost income due to layoffs.

If Trump were to do this, Mexico would tax their imports from the US as well, or they'd simply purchase more from China and Japan.


Exports

Mexico was the United States' 2nd largest goods export market in 2015.

U.S. goods exports to Mexico in 2015 were $236 billion, down 1.6% ($3.9 billion) from 2014 but up 97% from 2005. U.S. exports to Mexico are up 468% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). U.S. exports to Mexico account for 15.7% of overall U.S. exports in 2015.

The top export categories (2-digit HS) in 2015 were: machinery ($42 billion), electrical machinery ($41 billion), vehicles ($22 billion), mineral fuels ($19 billion), and plastics ($17 billion).

U.S. exports of agricultural products to Mexico totaled $18 billion in 2015, our 3th largest agricultural export market. Leading categories include: corn ($2.3 billion), soybeans ($1.4 billion), dairy products ($1.3 billion), pork & pork products ($1.3 billion), and beef & beef products ($1.1 billion).

U.S. exports of services to Mexico were an estimated $30.8 billion in 2015, 2.7% ($807 million) more than 2014, and 36.7% greater than 2005 levels. It was up roughly 196% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). Based on 2014, leading services exports from the U.S. to Mexico were in the travel, transportation, and intellectual property (computer software) sectors.
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexico


Top 10 Mexican Imports from the US

America's exports to Mexico amounted to
$187.3 billion or 47.4% of its overall imports.

1. Machinery: $26.9 billion
2. Electronic equipment: $23.6 billion
3. Oil: $22.3 billion
4. Vehicles: $19.8 billion
5. Plastics: $15.4 billion
6. Medical, technical equipment: $5.5 billion
7. Iron or steel products: $4.9 billion
8. Organic chemicals: $4.9 billion
9. Iron and steel: $4.2 billion
10. Paper: $4.1 billion

http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top-mexico-imports.html

Bernardo de La Paz

(49,043 posts)
96. Nope. Mex car parts go into US car assembly jobs.
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 07:18 PM
Jan 2017

Same for US computer chips going into Mexican assembled computers that the US buys.

Block car parts and rust belt auto jobs die.

Block computers and chip maker jobs die.

tRump's team is so stupid.

Vinnie From Indy

(10,820 posts)
18. Trump is going to cause the US econoomy great harm !!!
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:11 PM
Jan 2017

This type of sweeping economic decree always has profound unintended consequences!

It also makes for HUGE profits for people that know what Trump is going to tweet and then buy stocks accordingly.

rainbow4321

(9,974 posts)
33. Mexico saw this coming...
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:21 PM
Jan 2017

Saw their ex President interviewed last night and the interviewer suggested this could happen, the ex Pres said basically two can play at that game, we can put an extra charge on US trade items, also. So, yes, it is heading to a trade war.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
58. Sure
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:50 PM
Jan 2017

Trump raises it 20%, Mexico raises theirs 20%.

Then it goes another round etc

Trump is a madman.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
22. Interesting how this will play with those
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:12 PM
Jan 2017

2.5 million ex-pats that live in Mexico and others who own Property in Mexico. Most of these ex pats are Retired Military and their dependents. Is Trump going to intercept their Pension Benefits? Is Trump going to Intercept money transfers to relatives? Sure as hell sounds like it.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
92. Nope it got wiped out by the last republican administration
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 07:13 PM
Jan 2017

Many millions of folks will see theirs devastated by Trump and his gang this time as well.

Else You Are Mad

(3,040 posts)
61. Sol beer...
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:54 PM
Jan 2017

Is one of the best beers out there. I probably will be shipped off to a camp if Trump's administration finds out I like mexican beer.

rzemanfl

(29,569 posts)
84. Unless you're a woman, then he may have other ideas about what to do with what you drink.
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 06:43 PM
Jan 2017

Eww, I just made myself feel a little sick. What an unpresidented situation.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,857 posts)
37. They don't need to vote. Presidents have the power to create tariffs.
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:24 PM
Jan 2017

He could greatly increase deportations and ban certain people from immigrating here too.

And if Elected: What President Trump Could or Couldn’t Do
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/04/opinion/campaign-stops/and-if-elected-what-president-trump-could-or-couldnt-do.html?_r=1

Trump can also end NAFTA all by himself since it's an agreement, not a treaty.

jeanmarc

(1,685 posts)
42. It's not an expressed right in the Constitution, but it seems it is law somehow
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:28 PM
Jan 2017

Congress could theoretically overturn the tariff and override the simp's veto. I'm already getting fatigue from these lunatics.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,857 posts)
46. I doubt Congress will do anything if they don't have to.
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:33 PM
Jan 2017

It's the Republican way.

Unless it's some kind of Spanish Inquisition like investigation of Democrats, I mean.

sarisataka

(18,774 posts)
47. It is questionable
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:39 PM
Jan 2017

As the Constitution does reserve the power of taxation to the House

Art 1, Sec 7-
All Bills for raising Revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives; but the Senate may propose or concur with Amendments as on other Bills.

Congress has given Presidents wide latitude to enforce taxes based on previously passed legislation but I don't believe ever as broad as Trump's proposal. Also I do not think SCOTUS has definitely ruled but I think it would be a hard sell to the Court for a President to create a new tax without it coming from the House.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,857 posts)
52. Tax on Americans... or tariffs on imports?
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:43 PM
Jan 2017

Congress has the power over taxes here.

From the NYT link:

Can he slap tariffs on China, as he has threatened? Yes, he can. Congress has delegated to the president the power to retaliate against foreign countries that engage in unfair trade practices like dumping, leaving it to the president and trade officials to determine what that means. In 2002, President George W. Bush imposed steel tariffs on China and other countries for what many observers considered political reasons.

The World Trade Organization ruled the steel tariffs illegal in that case. But Mr. Trump could simply ignore its judgment, and indeed withdraw the United States from the W.T.O., just as President Bush withdrew the United States from the Antiballistic Missile Treaty in 2002. While he’s at it, Mr. Trump could tear up the North Atlantic Treaty, which created NATO, an organization that he has called “obsolete.”

sarisataka

(18,774 posts)
71. That phrase
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 06:11 PM
Jan 2017

"retaliate against foreign countries that engage in unfair trade practices" will be critical. I am not aware of anyone claiming unfair Mexican trade practices.

We can of course ignore the WTO or ICJ but won't win much sympathy by doing so. It could risk a wider trade war as well.

I do not know if Mexico would have standing to bring a case to the US Supreme Court for an unconstitutional tax. I think they would get a surprisingly fair hearing on the matter as Congress would have to intervene or risk losing a power to the Executive.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,857 posts)
79. We'll see how it goes.
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 06:21 PM
Jan 2017

Trump's been calling trade unfair for awhile during his campaign, so I'd look there for his likely angle. I can't remember if he pointed to cost of living differences or what.

He's probably going to try all the things he mentioned during the campaign, at least everything within his power.

Tariffs, massive deportations, restricted immigration, etc.

If we go back even further in time, to his "ideas" of the 80's, the idiot might even hope to disarm every country of nuclear weapons except the USA and Russia. Good luck with that, but we're dealing with someone with a short attention span, poor impulse control and an enormous ego who "doubles down" when someone points out his errors.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,857 posts)
86. A vote, or just wanting their input for a plan?
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 06:52 PM
Jan 2017
Despite the controversial nature of the proposal, which is likely to be met by stiff opposition from business leaders in the US, Spicer said the proposal is one "we've been in close contact with both houses (of Congress) in moving forward and creating a plan."


The last I checked, Congress seemed more willing to raise money to pay for a wall in other ways.
https://morningconsult.com/2017/01/26/ryan-mcconnell-say-congress-will-try-fund-trumps-wall/

 

Charles Bukowski

(1,132 posts)
31. Mexico is bound to retaliate with a 20% tariff of their own.
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:20 PM
Jan 2017

When it comes to Mexico, we export nearly as much as we import.

Texas businesses near the border are shitting bricks right now.

rainbow4321

(9,974 posts)
35. Yup..the ex Pres promised that in an interview last night
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:23 PM
Jan 2017

He promised it when the interviewer suggested that the US could enact a tariff to get the wall money.

He got real close to his webcam and was adamant with a realllly angry face.

Else You Are Mad

(3,040 posts)
67. China...
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:59 PM
Jan 2017

Has the resources to actually win a trade war with America. Imagine the shit show that would occur if China calls Trump's bluff. Trump is used to 'negotiating' with contractors that settle because Trump would bankrupt them in litigation. China does not yield or fuck around, and no amount of tweets will intimidate them. And, the average american citizen is totally fucked.

 

LittleBlue

(10,362 posts)
36. I feel bad for Mexico. His behavior indicated he wanted to make an example of a country
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:24 PM
Jan 2017

To show the rest what would happen if they dared defy him. The peso is falling off a cliff.

He settled on Mexico, unfortunately, and they will suffer for it. Pray for the people of Mexico, it won't be pleasant for them.

sarisataka

(18,774 posts)
43. How does this make Mexico pay?
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:29 PM
Jan 2017

They are not coming here to buy the imports back.

A tariff is a restriction tax that limits trade. It costs Mexico nothing directly, US consumers are the ones who pay. Indirectly it will cost Mexico by however much trade is lost from US consumers switching from Mexican imports to other products but if Mexico expands trade with other countries to make up that loss, a very likely scenario, they are out nothing.

Calista241

(5,586 posts)
49. Trade doesn't expand with other countries that fast.
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:41 PM
Jan 2017

Let's say Mexico wants to ship stuff to China as an export to offset loss of trade with he US.

The first thing they'll have to do is talk to China and come to an agreement. Those things do not happen quickly.

THe second thing they'll have to do is build or expand a deep water port to allow for all the new shipping requirements.

Then, they'll have to build railroads to move all those cars and other goods from factories on the US border (mostly near Tijuana) to the new port on the Pacific Ocean.

After that, they're going to have to build and acquire cargo ships to move that material from Mexico to China. Cargo ships today are ALWAYS on the water transporting goods. If they aren't, the ships owners are losing money, and how often to you think shipping companies want shit just sitting around losing money? There is no downtime, and those ships are in high demand with schedules booked out years in advance. Those companies, today, know exactly what that ship is going to be carrying and where it's going 3 years from now. The amount of ships needed to transport $500B in goods is enormous.

Mexico is literally up shit creek with no paddle.

OnDoutside

(19,972 posts)
62. Mexico already has trade agreements with other countries
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:56 PM
Jan 2017

So they need to up their efforts at marketing to sell elsewhere. Yes it will take time, but there's no point throwing their hands up without a fight. Ireland had similar problems as we still sell about 40% of our exports to the UK. A hard brexit will cause us a lot of problems, but we just have to get on with it and develop new markets.

sarisataka

(18,774 posts)
65. I could see countries like China
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:58 PM
Jan 2017

and others doing some expedited negotiations just to tweak Trump's nose.

Also I do not see Mexico completely cutting off trade nor US consumers stop purchasing every Mexican product. Many will bite the bullet and pay the higher amount. So it is only the lost portion that will need redistribution.

The infrastructure is a higher hurdle but Ferromex is a well run operation with facilities at Mexicali. It is a long run from there to Lazaro Cardenas. Yet Mexico's busiest port is already in the midst of a near $1t expansion.

International shipping is not easy for us to control. While we have the 5th largest fleet by number of ships, we are 21st in tonnage. Panama, Liberia, Marshall Is. and Hong Kong each have over 10x our capacity. We can probably count MI to back us, HK will go where China wants and given the choice, Panama would probably switch tonnage from the US to Mexico for both historical and cultural reasons.

Likely Mexico's economy takes a short term bump but the greatest risk is long term. Mexico may find they don't need the US quite as much and we would have to pay higher prices to make up the loss.

Calista241

(5,586 posts)
98. Yep, so they'd have to expand the port.
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 07:24 PM
Jan 2017

They typically don't build these ports with an insane amount of excess capacity. And it can currently facilitate 3.6m tons of cargo per year.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
48. Fuhrer Trump don't need no stinkin WTO
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:40 PM
Jan 2017

Torture is against the Geneva convention and Dump was bragging yesterday about how he loves water boarding and we will be using that.

How long before he and the republicans pull us out of the UN and tell them to get out of NYC and the country?

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
53. Except that the US set up the system and up until now has won all its cases but one
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:45 PM
Jan 2017

If they lose then huge fines accumulate and they could recover by liens on US judgements.

They never anticipated a US government that would cheat.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
75. I never anticipated a reality show clown/con man/Russian mole
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 06:18 PM
Jan 2017

as president either but here we are.

Plus his damn party controls all three branches of government till 2018 at least.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,857 posts)
55. Yes he can, sadly.
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:47 PM
Jan 2017

It's an agreement, not a treaty.

Trump could pull us out of the WTO too, for that matter.

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-american-presidents-power-over-nafta/

Despite the complexity of the agreement, the mechanics of withdrawing from NAFTA are simple. Article 2205 of the agreement says: “A Party may withdraw from this Agreement six months after it provides written notice of withdrawal to the other Parties. If a Party withdraws, the Agreement shall remain in force for the remaining Parties.”

The withdrawal process from NAFTA is clear and uncomplicated. The deeper question is: who in the United States gets to make that decision? Can the president, without consulting Congress, withdraw the U.S. from NAFTA simply by dispatching a letter to Mexico and Canada and waiting six months?

The U.S. Constitution is silent on this question. The Constitution covers treaties – not agreements – and NAFTA is not technically a treaty. It is the North American Free Trade Agreement. Within the framework of U.S. law, NAFTA is what is called a congressional-executive agreement (CEA). One of the major differences between treaties and CEAs in the United States is how they are made law. Article 2, Section 2 of the Constitution says the president “shall have power, by and with the advice and consent of the Senate, to make treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur.” CEAs, on the other hand, are not mentioned and are approved by a simple majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Even if NAFTA were a treaty, the Constitution would not make the situation much clearer. This is because the Constitution says nothing about who has the power to terminate a treaty. The question also has not been answered by American jurisprudence.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
73. WTO doesn't enforce NAFTA, it enforces GATT
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 06:15 PM
Jan 2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Trade_Organization

It would violate several key GATT principles


Non-discrimination. It has two major components: the most favoured nation (MFN) rule, and the national treatment policy. Both are embedded in the main WTO rules on goods, services, and intellectual property, but their precise scope and nature differ across these areas. The MFN rule requires that a WTO member must apply the same conditions on all trade with other WTO members, i.e. a WTO member has to grant the most favourable conditions under which it allows trade in a certain product type to all other WTO members.[46] "Grant someone a special favour and you have to do the same for all other WTO members."[30] National treatment means that imported goods should be treated no less favourably than domestically produced goods (at least after the foreign goods have entered the market) and was introduced to tackle non-tariff barriers to trade (e.g. technical standards, security standards et al. discriminating against imported goods).[46]
2.Reciprocity. It reflects both a desire to limit the scope of free-riding that may arise because of the MFN rule, and a desire to obtain better access to foreign markets. A related point is that for a nation to negotiate, it is necessary that the gain from doing so be greater than the gain available from unilateral liberalization; reciprocal concessions intend to ensure that such gains will materialise.[47]
3.Binding and enforceable commitments. The tariff commitments made by WTO members in a multilateral trade negotiation and on accession are enumerated in a schedule (list) of concessions. These schedules establish "ceiling bindings": a country can change its bindings, but only after negotiating with its trading partners, which could mean compensating them for loss of trade. If satisfaction is not obtained, the complaining country may invoke the WTO dispute settlement procedures.[30][47]


As for leaving the WTO, that is the least likely option. Almost half of all WTO disputes are made by the US and I understand that our success rate is very high, that we have won 100% of the cases brought against the EU.

This is a peer review paper that concludes that the WTO serves US industry interests. If Trump leaves it then he would open up US industry to action by national courts, something the US has been fighting for 4 decades.


http://www.freepatentsonline.com/article/Management-International-Review/171851365.html

Significantly, the United States does best in the early phases of a dispute, where politics, not law, is the key governing characteristic. It is here where power and resource asymmetries are at their most striking, with many smaller countries worried about angering trade lobbies in the US Congress and about losing access to the American market. US performance declines somewhat once the formal process has started; as the rules of the game become clearer and apply to both parties; US scope to apply pressure for an early, mutually agreed solution fades away. However, even at the later, more legalistic stages of the disputes process, the United States does very well, especially given the large number of cases it is involved in. Once the US is involved in litigation, its behaviour as a defendant is to utilise all routes of appeal available. Stoler (2004) and Iida (2004) both note that a key objective of the Uruguay Round negotiations was to restrain US unilateralism--especially the use of Section 301 of the US Trade Act. Iida argues that the disputes process has indeed, 'been most effective in "disarming" Section 301' (Iida 2004, p. 222). The data presented here suggest another explanation: the US has not needed to resort to 301 because the disputes process serves American interests very effectively. The WTO matters to international business; it adjudicates on a variety of national trade laws that affect firm performance and competitiveness. The data here suggest that, at minimum, the disputes process works well for American firms.




grantcart

(53,061 posts)
88. NAFTA is a bilateral or multilateral agreement
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 06:58 PM
Jan 2017

GATT and the WTO is the worlds multilateral instrument that adjudicates trade disagreements and prevents countries form instituting unilateral increases (or decreases, known as dumping) of tariffs.

Just because we have a bilateral agreement with someone doesn't mean that we are exempt from GATT/WTO principles, rules or adjudication.

This is easily proved because long after NAFTA was passed the US continued to lodge complaints against Mexico (though not many) through the WTO dispute process.

This is the last one:

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds308_e.htm

We could leave WTO but that would leave US companies vulnerable without a binding dispute process, one that has served US interests very well, and I don't think there would be any support for that.

Calista241

(5,586 posts)
56. I would imagine both Canada and the US will be announcing
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:48 PM
Jan 2017

Their intent to withdraw from NAFTA next week when Trudeau come to he White House.

Trump is going to strong arm Canada into withdrawing also. And he's going announce they're working in new trade agreements with both Canada and the U.K. To demonstrate that he's not anti-trade.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
77. Extremely doubtful, Canada just signed a free trade agreement with the EU
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 06:20 PM
Jan 2017

They were very strong the TPP because it will give them free trade to Australia and New Zealand as well as ASEAN and the Asian Tigers.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/30/eu-canada-sign-ceta-free-trade-deal-trudeau-juncker

The EU and Canada signed a free trade deal on Sunday that was almost derailed last week by objections from French-speaking Belgians , exposing the difficulties of securing agreement from 28 member states as Britain prepares for Brexit talks.

The European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said there was no parallel between the deal struck with Canada and looming Brexit talks.

“I don’t see any relation between what we are signing today and the Brexit issue,” Juncker said, before greeting Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, in Brussels

Trudeau and top EU officials signed the comprehensive economic and trade agreement, known as Ceta, paving the way for most import duties to be removed early next year. However, the treaty needs the approval of at least 38 national and regional parliaments, including the UK’s, to take full force.

Calista241

(5,586 posts)
90. Canada will not put their access to the US market at risk
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 07:02 PM
Jan 2017

Canada does less than $5B in trade with Mexico and over $300B in trade with the US. Trade with the US accounts for over 75% of the Canadian exports.

The U.K. Is Canada's third largest partner at $12B, and the next largest EU trade partner is Germany at #9 with under $3B in trade.

In addition, Canada has a second Free Trade Agreement with the US already in place should one or both parties withdraw from NAFTA. This was agreed to in 1987 before NAFTA.

Trump has made sure to send warm and fuzzy signals to the Canadians, and right now we both have pretty much equal trade with neither country having a trade deficit.

Else You Are Mad

(3,040 posts)
57. Can we please get some...
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:48 PM
Jan 2017

First week freshman taking an ECON 101 class to please explain to Trump why this is a bad idea.

Else You Are Mad

(3,040 posts)
68. Don't worry..
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 06:01 PM
Jan 2017

Once Trump finds out that Canada has significant fossil fuel reserves, he will try to bully his way into taking them.

 

HoneyBadger

(2,297 posts)
63. We import $291 billion from Mexico each year, 20% is nearly $60 billion
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 05:57 PM
Jan 2017

So Trump gets $15 billion for the wall in 3 months?????

Or looking at it from another angle, the import deficit is $97 billion, 20% is nearly $20 billion.

Which works out to $15 billion for the wall in 9 months?????


The top export destinations of Mexico are the United States ($291B), Canada ($24.5B), China ($7.89B), Spain ($6.18B) and Brazil ($5.35B). The top import origins are the United States ($194B), China ($58.7B), Japan ($15.8B), South Korea ($13.4B) and Germany ($12.8B)

Bengus81

(6,932 posts)
74. 20% will be the tax,and then the Kroger food "tax"
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 06:18 PM
Jan 2017

It's like when gas skyrocketed,the price at the pump wasn't the only increase you paid.

Thrill

(19,178 posts)
78. Whats sad is his idiotic voters are out there on twitter and places
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 06:21 PM
Jan 2017

trying to defend this as a good thing.

Think about that. Regular working folks too stupid to realize they're cheering on all their goods going up in prices. But no wages increase to combat it

dgibby

(9,474 posts)
81. Looks like a good time to stock up on non-perishables.
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 06:33 PM
Jan 2017

I think the Mormons have the right idea about maintaining a year's worth of food/supplies.

Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

(108,210 posts)
85. Trump the stupid fuckhead
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 06:45 PM
Jan 2017

He's not making Mexico pay for the wall. He's making American consumers pay for it.

But the Trumpanzees will gladly bend over and pay for it.

GoCubsGo

(32,094 posts)
99. Trying to figure out who is the cluesless one here.
Thu Jan 26, 2017, 08:14 PM
Jan 2017

Does Trump really believe that Mexico, China, and manufacturers who move abroad are going to pay those tariffs, rather than passing it off on the consumers? Or, is he counting on his sycophants to not understand that they will be the ones paying those taxes whenever they buy those products?

 

HoneyBadger

(2,297 posts)
100. It is a shame that we cannot put a 20% tax on illegal cartel imports
Fri Jan 27, 2017, 12:42 PM
Jan 2017

Though I suppose that we can after we seize them. How to collect?

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