General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCNN Reporting 20% Tax On Mexican Imports To Pay For Wall. LET THE TRADE WAR BEGIN!
Food prices will rise because we get quite a bit from Mexico.
It they retaliate, we will lose a lot of business SENDING our imports to Mexico.
pbmus
(12,422 posts)etherealtruth
(22,165 posts)A: just about everyone (except tRump and his idiot supporters)
brooklynite
(94,736 posts)marybourg
(12,634 posts)cookies. They tasted just like the cookies of our childhood.
dalton99a
(81,590 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)China next and inflation on consumer goods and food will SKYROCKET!
mainer
(12,029 posts)there goes the guacamole in restaurants.
Hayabusa
(2,135 posts)spanone
(135,877 posts)Hayabusa
(2,135 posts)even a 20% increase in food prices is a drop in the hat for people like Trump.
spanone
(135,877 posts)Hayabusa
(2,135 posts)that have people that go to the grocery store for him.
anneboleyn
(5,611 posts)Of course the new corporate overlords won't so Trump probably won't care when his voters start crying about food prices, "let them eat cake"
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)C_U_L8R
(45,021 posts)Will Trump make up his mind!
Warpy
(111,351 posts)We know the wall won't work. We know it will fuck up animal migration. We know it's a goddamned boondoggle that will make Trump's cronies richer. We know it's not necessary because as our economy has worsened and Mexico's economy has strengthened, much of the flow has reversed.
Somebody needs to tell this man-baby NO.
And wait until suburbanites around NYC find how much their out of season fruits and veg are going to cost!
herding cats
(19,568 posts)US goods exported to Mexico in 2015 were $236 billion. There's no data for 2016 yet.
Also, in these types of disputes it's always the consumers who pay the increase in the end.
JDC
(10,133 posts)Made in Mexico and brought back in?
Vinca
(50,304 posts)Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(108,210 posts)Alhena
(3,030 posts)let's not kid ourselves, this will play very well among Rust Belt workers. Hard for us to get the presidency back without the Rust Belt.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Will be falling from the skies next week because Trumps a fucking idiot.
Sure thing.
gordianot
(15,245 posts)When you hear someone say they are voting for a candidate who says the same thing "I" say you may just get what you ask for. Causality is an arcane mystery for these people.
herding cats
(19,568 posts)Not just the increased prices in food and goods they purchase, but in lost income due to layoffs.
If Trump were to do this, Mexico would tax their imports from the US as well, or they'd simply purchase more from China and Japan.
Mexico was the United States' 2nd largest goods export market in 2015.
U.S. goods exports to Mexico in 2015 were $236 billion, down 1.6% ($3.9 billion) from 2014 but up 97% from 2005. U.S. exports to Mexico are up 468% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). U.S. exports to Mexico account for 15.7% of overall U.S. exports in 2015.
The top export categories (2-digit HS) in 2015 were: machinery ($42 billion), electrical machinery ($41 billion), vehicles ($22 billion), mineral fuels ($19 billion), and plastics ($17 billion).
U.S. exports of agricultural products to Mexico totaled $18 billion in 2015, our 3th largest agricultural export market. Leading categories include: corn ($2.3 billion), soybeans ($1.4 billion), dairy products ($1.3 billion), pork & pork products ($1.3 billion), and beef & beef products ($1.1 billion).
U.S. exports of services to Mexico were an estimated $30.8 billion in 2015, 2.7% ($807 million) more than 2014, and 36.7% greater than 2005 levels. It was up roughly 196% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). Based on 2014, leading services exports from the U.S. to Mexico were in the travel, transportation, and intellectual property (computer software) sectors.
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexico
America's exports to Mexico amounted to
$187.3 billion or 47.4% of its overall imports.
1. Machinery: $26.9 billion
2. Electronic equipment: $23.6 billion
3. Oil: $22.3 billion
4. Vehicles: $19.8 billion
5. Plastics: $15.4 billion
6. Medical, technical equipment: $5.5 billion
7. Iron or steel products: $4.9 billion
8. Organic chemicals: $4.9 billion
9. Iron and steel: $4.2 billion
10. Paper: $4.1 billion
http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top-mexico-imports.html
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,043 posts)anneboleyn
(5,611 posts)Alhena
(3,030 posts)JHan
(10,173 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(49,043 posts)Same for US computer chips going into Mexican assembled computers that the US buys.
Block car parts and rust belt auto jobs die.
Block computers and chip maker jobs die.
tRump's team is so stupid.
Vinnie From Indy
(10,820 posts)This type of sweeping economic decree always has profound unintended consequences!
It also makes for HUGE profits for people that know what Trump is going to tweet and then buy stocks accordingly.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)rainbow4321
(9,974 posts)Saw their ex President interviewed last night and the interviewer suggested this could happen, the ex Pres said basically two can play at that game, we can put an extra charge on US trade items, also. So, yes, it is heading to a trade war.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Trump raises it 20%, Mexico raises theirs 20%.
Then it goes another round etc
Trump is a madman.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)2.5 million ex-pats that live in Mexico and others who own Property in Mexico. Most of these ex pats are Retired Military and their dependents. Is Trump going to intercept their Pension Benefits? Is Trump going to Intercept money transfers to relatives? Sure as hell sounds like it.
Drahthaardogs
(6,843 posts)It will be on
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)I'd be worried if I had any $$$ in the wall street casino for sure.
tblue37
(65,488 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Many millions of folks will see theirs devastated by Trump and his gang this time as well.
Auntie Bush
(17,528 posts)HopeAgain
(4,407 posts)No more avocados?
Iggo
(47,568 posts)rzemanfl
(29,569 posts)Else You Are Mad
(3,040 posts)Is one of the best beers out there. I probably will be shipped off to a camp if Trump's administration finds out I like mexican beer.
HoneyBadger
(2,297 posts)rzemanfl
(29,569 posts)Eww, I just made myself feel a little sick. What an unpresidented situation.
jeanmarc
(1,685 posts)This is pure nihilism.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,857 posts)He could greatly increase deportations and ban certain people from immigrating here too.
And if Elected: What President Trump Could or Couldnt Do
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/04/opinion/campaign-stops/and-if-elected-what-president-trump-could-or-couldnt-do.html?_r=1
Trump can also end NAFTA all by himself since it's an agreement, not a treaty.
jeanmarc
(1,685 posts)Congress could theoretically overturn the tariff and override the simp's veto. I'm already getting fatigue from these lunatics.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,857 posts)It's the Republican way.
Unless it's some kind of Spanish Inquisition like investigation of Democrats, I mean.
sarisataka
(18,774 posts)As the Constitution does reserve the power of taxation to the House
Art 1, Sec 7-
All Bills for raising Revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives; but the Senate may propose or concur with Amendments as on other Bills.
Congress has given Presidents wide latitude to enforce taxes based on previously passed legislation but I don't believe ever as broad as Trump's proposal. Also I do not think SCOTUS has definitely ruled but I think it would be a hard sell to the Court for a President to create a new tax without it coming from the House.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,857 posts)Congress has the power over taxes here.
From the NYT link:
Can he slap tariffs on China, as he has threatened? Yes, he can. Congress has delegated to the president the power to retaliate against foreign countries that engage in unfair trade practices like dumping, leaving it to the president and trade officials to determine what that means. In 2002, President George W. Bush imposed steel tariffs on China and other countries for what many observers considered political reasons.
The World Trade Organization ruled the steel tariffs illegal in that case. But Mr. Trump could simply ignore its judgment, and indeed withdraw the United States from the W.T.O., just as President Bush withdrew the United States from the Antiballistic Missile Treaty in 2002. While hes at it, Mr. Trump could tear up the North Atlantic Treaty, which created NATO, an organization that he has called obsolete.
sarisataka
(18,774 posts)"retaliate against foreign countries that engage in unfair trade practices" will be critical. I am not aware of anyone claiming unfair Mexican trade practices.
We can of course ignore the WTO or ICJ but won't win much sympathy by doing so. It could risk a wider trade war as well.
I do not know if Mexico would have standing to bring a case to the US Supreme Court for an unconstitutional tax. I think they would get a surprisingly fair hearing on the matter as Congress would have to intervene or risk losing a power to the Executive.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,857 posts)Trump's been calling trade unfair for awhile during his campaign, so I'd look there for his likely angle. I can't remember if he pointed to cost of living differences or what.
He's probably going to try all the things he mentioned during the campaign, at least everything within his power.
Tariffs, massive deportations, restricted immigration, etc.
If we go back even further in time, to his "ideas" of the 80's, the idiot might even hope to disarm every country of nuclear weapons except the USA and Russia. Good luck with that, but we're dealing with someone with a short attention span, poor impulse control and an enormous ego who "doubles down" when someone points out his errors.
MarvinGardens
(779 posts)Buckeye_Democrat
(14,857 posts)Despite the controversial nature of the proposal, which is likely to be met by stiff opposition from business leaders in the US, Spicer said the proposal is one "we've been in close contact with both houses (of Congress) in moving forward and creating a plan."
The last I checked, Congress seemed more willing to raise money to pay for a wall in other ways.
https://morningconsult.com/2017/01/26/ryan-mcconnell-say-congress-will-try-fund-trumps-wall/
Charles Bukowski
(1,132 posts)When it comes to Mexico, we export nearly as much as we import.
Texas businesses near the border are shitting bricks right now.
rainbow4321
(9,974 posts)He promised it when the interviewer suggested that the US could enact a tariff to get the wall money.
He got real close to his webcam and was adamant with a realllly angry face.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Else You Are Mad
(3,040 posts)Has the resources to actually win a trade war with America. Imagine the shit show that would occur if China calls Trump's bluff. Trump is used to 'negotiating' with contractors that settle because Trump would bankrupt them in litigation. China does not yield or fuck around, and no amount of tweets will intimidate them. And, the average american citizen is totally fucked.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)We won't have to imagine it very long I bet.
democratisphere
(17,235 posts)gordianot
(15,245 posts)Idiots are running amok in The United States.
HoneyBadger
(2,297 posts)LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)To show the rest what would happen if they dared defy him. The peso is falling off a cliff.
He settled on Mexico, unfortunately, and they will suffer for it. Pray for the people of Mexico, it won't be pleasant for them.
Iggo
(47,568 posts)sarisataka
(18,774 posts)They are not coming here to buy the imports back.
A tariff is a restriction tax that limits trade. It costs Mexico nothing directly, US consumers are the ones who pay. Indirectly it will cost Mexico by however much trade is lost from US consumers switching from Mexican imports to other products but if Mexico expands trade with other countries to make up that loss, a very likely scenario, they are out nothing.
Calista241
(5,586 posts)Let's say Mexico wants to ship stuff to China as an export to offset loss of trade with he US.
The first thing they'll have to do is talk to China and come to an agreement. Those things do not happen quickly.
THe second thing they'll have to do is build or expand a deep water port to allow for all the new shipping requirements.
Then, they'll have to build railroads to move all those cars and other goods from factories on the US border (mostly near Tijuana) to the new port on the Pacific Ocean.
After that, they're going to have to build and acquire cargo ships to move that material from Mexico to China. Cargo ships today are ALWAYS on the water transporting goods. If they aren't, the ships owners are losing money, and how often to you think shipping companies want shit just sitting around losing money? There is no downtime, and those ships are in high demand with schedules booked out years in advance. Those companies, today, know exactly what that ship is going to be carrying and where it's going 3 years from now. The amount of ships needed to transport $500B in goods is enormous.
Mexico is literally up shit creek with no paddle.
OnDoutside
(19,972 posts)So they need to up their efforts at marketing to sell elsewhere. Yes it will take time, but there's no point throwing their hands up without a fight. Ireland had similar problems as we still sell about 40% of our exports to the UK. A hard brexit will cause us a lot of problems, but we just have to get on with it and develop new markets.
sarisataka
(18,774 posts)and others doing some expedited negotiations just to tweak Trump's nose.
Also I do not see Mexico completely cutting off trade nor US consumers stop purchasing every Mexican product. Many will bite the bullet and pay the higher amount. So it is only the lost portion that will need redistribution.
The infrastructure is a higher hurdle but Ferromex is a well run operation with facilities at Mexicali. It is a long run from there to Lazaro Cardenas. Yet Mexico's busiest port is already in the midst of a near $1t expansion.
International shipping is not easy for us to control. While we have the 5th largest fleet by number of ships, we are 21st in tonnage. Panama, Liberia, Marshall Is. and Hong Kong each have over 10x our capacity. We can probably count MI to back us, HK will go where China wants and given the choice, Panama would probably switch tonnage from the US to Mexico for both historical and cultural reasons.
Likely Mexico's economy takes a short term bump but the greatest risk is long term. Mexico may find they don't need the US quite as much and we would have to pay higher prices to make up the loss.
Chico Man
(3,001 posts)First thing that came to mind when I read your post.
Calista241
(5,586 posts)They typically don't build these ports with an insane amount of excess capacity. And it can currently facilitate 3.6m tons of cargo per year.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)You cannot make unilateral changes to an approved treaty
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Torture is against the Geneva convention and Dump was bragging yesterday about how he loves water boarding and we will be using that.
How long before he and the republicans pull us out of the UN and tell them to get out of NYC and the country?
grantcart
(53,061 posts)If they lose then huge fines accumulate and they could recover by liens on US judgements.
They never anticipated a US government that would cheat.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)as president either but here we are.
Plus his damn party controls all three branches of government till 2018 at least.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,857 posts)It's an agreement, not a treaty.
Trump could pull us out of the WTO too, for that matter.
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-american-presidents-power-over-nafta/
Despite the complexity of the agreement, the mechanics of withdrawing from NAFTA are simple. Article 2205 of the agreement says: A Party may withdraw from this Agreement six months after it provides written notice of withdrawal to the other Parties. If a Party withdraws, the Agreement shall remain in force for the remaining Parties.
The withdrawal process from NAFTA is clear and uncomplicated. The deeper question is: who in the United States gets to make that decision? Can the president, without consulting Congress, withdraw the U.S. from NAFTA simply by dispatching a letter to Mexico and Canada and waiting six months?
The U.S. Constitution is silent on this question. The Constitution covers treaties not agreements and NAFTA is not technically a treaty. It is the North American Free Trade Agreement. Within the framework of U.S. law, NAFTA is what is called a congressional-executive agreement (CEA). One of the major differences between treaties and CEAs in the United States is how they are made law. Article 2, Section 2 of the Constitution says the president shall have power, by and with the advice and consent of the Senate, to make treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur. CEAs, on the other hand, are not mentioned and are approved by a simple majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Even if NAFTA were a treaty, the Constitution would not make the situation much clearer. This is because the Constitution says nothing about who has the power to terminate a treaty. The question also has not been answered by American jurisprudence.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)It would violate several key GATT principles
Non-discrimination. It has two major components: the most favoured nation (MFN) rule, and the national treatment policy. Both are embedded in the main WTO rules on goods, services, and intellectual property, but their precise scope and nature differ across these areas. The MFN rule requires that a WTO member must apply the same conditions on all trade with other WTO members, i.e. a WTO member has to grant the most favourable conditions under which it allows trade in a certain product type to all other WTO members.[46] "Grant someone a special favour and you have to do the same for all other WTO members."[30] National treatment means that imported goods should be treated no less favourably than domestically produced goods (at least after the foreign goods have entered the market) and was introduced to tackle non-tariff barriers to trade (e.g. technical standards, security standards et al. discriminating against imported goods).[46]
2.Reciprocity. It reflects both a desire to limit the scope of free-riding that may arise because of the MFN rule, and a desire to obtain better access to foreign markets. A related point is that for a nation to negotiate, it is necessary that the gain from doing so be greater than the gain available from unilateral liberalization; reciprocal concessions intend to ensure that such gains will materialise.[47]
3.Binding and enforceable commitments. The tariff commitments made by WTO members in a multilateral trade negotiation and on accession are enumerated in a schedule (list) of concessions. These schedules establish "ceiling bindings": a country can change its bindings, but only after negotiating with its trading partners, which could mean compensating them for loss of trade. If satisfaction is not obtained, the complaining country may invoke the WTO dispute settlement procedures.[30][47]
As for leaving the WTO, that is the least likely option. Almost half of all WTO disputes are made by the US and I understand that our success rate is very high, that we have won 100% of the cases brought against the EU.
This is a peer review paper that concludes that the WTO serves US industry interests. If Trump leaves it then he would open up US industry to action by national courts, something the US has been fighting for 4 decades.
http://www.freepatentsonline.com/article/Management-International-Review/171851365.html
Significantly, the United States does best in the early phases of a dispute, where politics, not law, is the key governing characteristic. It is here where power and resource asymmetries are at their most striking, with many smaller countries worried about angering trade lobbies in the US Congress and about losing access to the American market. US performance declines somewhat once the formal process has started; as the rules of the game become clearer and apply to both parties; US scope to apply pressure for an early, mutually agreed solution fades away. However, even at the later, more legalistic stages of the disputes process, the United States does very well, especially given the large number of cases it is involved in. Once the US is involved in litigation, its behaviour as a defendant is to utilise all routes of appeal available. Stoler (2004) and Iida (2004) both note that a key objective of the Uruguay Round negotiations was to restrain US unilateralism--especially the use of Section 301 of the US Trade Act. Iida argues that the disputes process has indeed, 'been most effective in "disarming" Section 301' (Iida 2004, p. 222). The data presented here suggest another explanation: the US has not needed to resort to 301 because the disputes process serves American interests very effectively. The WTO matters to international business; it adjudicates on a variety of national trade laws that affect firm performance and competitiveness. The data here suggest that, at minimum, the disputes process works well for American firms.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,857 posts)Thanks for the other information.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)GATT and the WTO is the worlds multilateral instrument that adjudicates trade disagreements and prevents countries form instituting unilateral increases (or decreases, known as dumping) of tariffs.
Just because we have a bilateral agreement with someone doesn't mean that we are exempt from GATT/WTO principles, rules or adjudication.
This is easily proved because long after NAFTA was passed the US continued to lodge complaints against Mexico (though not many) through the WTO dispute process.
This is the last one:
https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds308_e.htm
We could leave WTO but that would leave US companies vulnerable without a binding dispute process, one that has served US interests very well, and I don't think there would be any support for that.
Calista241
(5,586 posts)Their intent to withdraw from NAFTA next week when Trudeau come to he White House.
Trump is going to strong arm Canada into withdrawing also. And he's going announce they're working in new trade agreements with both Canada and the U.K. To demonstrate that he's not anti-trade.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)They were very strong the TPP because it will give them free trade to Australia and New Zealand as well as ASEAN and the Asian Tigers.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/30/eu-canada-sign-ceta-free-trade-deal-trudeau-juncker
The EU and Canada signed a free trade deal on Sunday that was almost derailed last week by objections from French-speaking Belgians , exposing the difficulties of securing agreement from 28 member states as Britain prepares for Brexit talks.
The European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said there was no parallel between the deal struck with Canada and looming Brexit talks.
I dont see any relation between what we are signing today and the Brexit issue, Juncker said, before greeting Canadas prime minister, Justin Trudeau, in Brussels
Trudeau and top EU officials signed the comprehensive economic and trade agreement, known as Ceta, paving the way for most import duties to be removed early next year. However, the treaty needs the approval of at least 38 national and regional parliaments, including the UKs, to take full force.
Calista241
(5,586 posts)Canada does less than $5B in trade with Mexico and over $300B in trade with the US. Trade with the US accounts for over 75% of the Canadian exports.
The U.K. Is Canada's third largest partner at $12B, and the next largest EU trade partner is Germany at #9 with under $3B in trade.
In addition, Canada has a second Free Trade Agreement with the US already in place should one or both parties withdraw from NAFTA. This was agreed to in 1987 before NAFTA.
Trump has made sure to send warm and fuzzy signals to the Canadians, and right now we both have pretty much equal trade with neither country having a trade deficit.
sinkingfeeling
(51,474 posts)Else You Are Mad
(3,040 posts)First week freshman taking an ECON 101 class to please explain to Trump why this is a bad idea.
Yavin4
(35,446 posts)Anyone else here see a pattern?
Else You Are Mad
(3,040 posts)Once Trump finds out that Canada has significant fossil fuel reserves, he will try to bully his way into taking them.
HoneyBadger
(2,297 posts)So Trump gets $15 billion for the wall in 3 months?????
Or looking at it from another angle, the import deficit is $97 billion, 20% is nearly $20 billion.
Which works out to $15 billion for the wall in 9 months?????
The top export destinations of Mexico are the United States ($291B), Canada ($24.5B), China ($7.89B), Spain ($6.18B) and Brazil ($5.35B). The top import origins are the United States ($194B), China ($58.7B), Japan ($15.8B), South Korea ($13.4B) and Germany ($12.8B)
sinkingfeeling
(51,474 posts)tariff will raise prices on goods.
sarcasmo
(23,968 posts)Bengus81
(6,932 posts)It's like when gas skyrocketed,the price at the pump wasn't the only increase you paid.
Thrill
(19,178 posts)trying to defend this as a good thing.
Think about that. Regular working folks too stupid to realize they're cheering on all their goods going up in prices. But no wages increase to combat it
dgibby
(9,474 posts)I think the Mormons have the right idea about maintaining a year's worth of food/supplies.
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(108,210 posts)He's not making Mexico pay for the wall. He's making American consumers pay for it.
But the Trumpanzees will gladly bend over and pay for it.
Atman
(31,464 posts)These people are so fucking stupid.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)If this does turn into a trade war, they will lose.
http://statisticstimes.com/economy/countries-by-projected-gdp.php
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,043 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(49,043 posts)GoCubsGo
(32,094 posts)Does Trump really believe that Mexico, China, and manufacturers who move abroad are going to pay those tariffs, rather than passing it off on the consumers? Or, is he counting on his sycophants to not understand that they will be the ones paying those taxes whenever they buy those products?
HoneyBadger
(2,297 posts)Though I suppose that we can after we seize them. How to collect?