The first casualties of Trump's trade wars are Texas cattle ranchers

[ehrnst]

KYLE, Texas - If the first casualty of war is truth, then the first casualties of trade war are the working man and woman. And first among them is about to be the iconic Texas rancher.

Here in the rolling pastures of bright, green spring grass at the edge of the Texas Hill Country, the handful of large spreads prosper from a wet winter. The short-horned Charolais breed, imported from France via Mexico, grow thick and wide, their white coats bright in the sunshine of impending spring. The Charolais makes for some of the finest grass-fed beef in the world. Now that a years-long drought has broken, ranchers can count on trucking in less of that expensive coastal grass they require in the dry months.

But the Texas cattle rancher now faces a new threat: the Trump administration's blundering, blustering trade policy. By threatening a trade war with Mexico within days of inauguration, the president helped trigger a slide in cattle futures. Mexico is a major export market. By sinking the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the new administration cut off long-sought access to the Japanese market. Now banks have raised the conditions for collateral for loans for ranchers.

Texas ranchers, though, will not be alone for long. Beef producers from Nebraska to the Dakotas face the same problems. So do grain farmers in Kansas and the snow-covered corn fields of Iowa, just like tomato farmers in California and Florida and autoworkers in Michigan, longshoremen, truckers and railway workers in Miami and Houston and Long Beach. These will be the first casualties of a trade war.

http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2017/02/16/first-casualties-trumps-trade-wars-texas-cattle-ranchers

[BSdetect]

1. scrotus rampages unchecked in so many areas

[Eliot Rosewater]

2. They will blame Obama. Somehow.

[iluvtennis]

19. Nope, this is Trump's shit show and he has to own it and we need to make sure of that...

...Hillary always preached leaving TPP in place with some mods.

Election is done and Obama is out of office. You wanted the job Don the Con (albeit you stole it), so do your job and take ownership. That's what true leader do - they own it -- that good and the bad.

[LiberalLovinLug]

34. Well they will still blame Obama regardless

They have a complete monopoly on RW hate radio in that State. And their mostly Republican voters have already been conditioned to accept any criticism of any Democrat as the Gospel truth. And that goes double for either Hillary or Obama.

They blamed Obama for the recession that BushCo. stoked to life....for years...and probably still do. And even though the Dow Jones and the employment rate both doubled under Obama, they still believe he was a 'disaster' economically. Because one of 'their' politicians or shock jocks told them so.

I think the biggest problem is repeated dis-information, the real 'fake news'. And the very real and successful method of 'the big lie'.
It is rapidly becoming two solitudes where it is traditional MSM, who have created in part the mess by abdicating their journalistic responsibility long ago for the lazy 'he said, she said' false equivalency MO, that are pitted against the alt-right fantasy 'news'.
I can see it only getting worse unfortunately, with more and more Republicans shutting out any station or network that tells them facts they don't want to hear, with encouragement from the POTUS, and tuning in to shows that lie to them to confirm their worst fears.

[Blue_true]

44. I agree, Obama will be blamed somehow by the

cattle ranchers that loose their ranch, or the Iowa corn farmers and silo operators that loose the business, or the auto workers that get laid off because of a lack or parts, or the dock workers laid off because less is going out or coming in. They won't use timelines or logic, look at the 2010 and 2014 midterms, they gave republicans Congress despite republicans doing nothing to help the country recover from the Bush debacle.

Trump is already claiming he inherited a disaster, despite the evidence that he inherited a sound economy and an effective fight against terror. The MSM sits on it's ass and let Trump lie. So, when the shit hits the fan, Trump will blame Obama and the MSM will look for any shred of evidence to support Trump's baseless claims.

[Initech]

39. We can't let them blame us for everything. We have to start fighting back.

The GOP owns Trump, this whole fucking thing is their fault, and we need to make sure everyone running GOP is connected to Trump. We cannot let them keep getting away with this, or 2018 is lost. The time to fight back is now.

[Achilleaze]

3. score another pathetic FAIL for the republican's draft-dodger in chief

[NewJeffCT]

15. You also have USFL

the football league. It was doing okay in the Spring/Summer when it didn't have to compete with the NFL. However, Trump bought into the league and insisted they compete head to head with the NFL. They went along with Trump and the league tanked and quickly went out of business.

[riversedge]

4. Kand

[VMA131Marine]

5. This is what happens when something that sounds good in a speech to the ill-informed

looks horrible in practice.

[JustAnotherGen]

6. Oh well

Things suck all around. Everyone has to take a hit during this admin - people who voted for him should have to take a hit too.

[herding cats]

7. Texas stands to lose the most in a trade war with Mexico.

Texas exports more to Mexico than any other state in the US.

Roughly 37.7 percent of all exports from Texas go to Mexico, the biggest percentage among all 50 states. That represents 5.8 percent of the state’s gross domestic product, also more than any other state.
Texas gets more imports from Mexico than any other country, roughly 33.2 percent of all of its imported goods.
A trade war wouldn’t be likely to tip either country into an economic recession. “The likelihood of a recession is quite slim for both countries since they have other trading agreements with other countries, and the U.S. economy is quite stable,” Gonzalez said. “However, a trade war with Mexico could impact U.S. agreements with other countries, as it could create global mistrust.”

http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/local/article/Report-Texas-is-the-biggest-loser-in-Mexico-10915683.php

The Texas economy is already pretty great, and Mexico is one of the key reasons.
That’s worth remembering when President Donald Trump threatens a trade war over a border wall, as he did last week. Economically, there’s more at stake for Texas than any other state in the country.

Mexico is our most important trading partner by far. In 2015, Texas exported over $92 billion worth of goods to Mexico, which was more than it exported to the next 10 countries combined. Texas imports from Mexico were almost as high, and were twice as high as from China, next on the list.
Perhaps the most impressive number: Texas exports supported over 1 million jobs in 2015, according to government estimates.
That’s almost 50 percent more export jobs than in California. And that’s more jobs than in some of Texas’ major employment sectors, including construction, manufacturing, financial activities and local education.

“Mexico is a huge part of the Texas success story,” said James Hollifield, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. “The Texas economy stands to be hit hard by Trump’s policies.”

http://www.dallasnews.com/business/business/2017/01/31/memo-president-trump-mexico-helps-make-texas-economy-first

[blogslut]

8. THIS

And our simpleton Governor, Lt. Governor, Atty General follow along with our ridiculous POTUS while our economy slips further down than it already has.

[herding cats]

10. Some people will not listen to facts and reason.

I've shared these statistics with many people who simply refuse to accept them. I have managed to crack a few people's Trump veneer with them, though. So, there's that.

[NewJeffCT]

12. Just a few voters out of every 100

is all that is needed to make a huge difference.

In November 2016, if 1 Trump voter in 100 had voted for Clinton, she not only has a huge popular vote win, but a bigger electoral margin than Trump had.

[herding cats]

20. I agree, which is why I'm not discouraged by the ones who refuse to listen.

I'm encouraged by the few who do listen.

[Dustlawyer]

21. Most of the cattle ranchers and farmers voted for him, it's only right

that they feel the pain first!!!

We need to make sure Obama and the Democrats are not blamed for Trump's picking a fight with Mexico, you know they will!

[herding cats]

23. To be fair, the agriculture industry leaders are vocal that Trump's plan will break them.

I imagine they're pushing back pretty hard by now, but I don't know if Trump will listen.

[The Sand Reckoner]

37. Much too late

to keep the next four years from being a nightmare. Hopefully they will experience enough pain and hardship to sour them to the Republican party forever, but I'm not counting on it. As long as the GOP is anti-black, anti-gay, and anti-immigrant, this ilk is likely to vote that way.

[herding cats]

38. You left off anti-abortion.

That's a big one with them, too.

[The Sand Reckoner]

45. Yep..

True that!

[Achilleaze]

64. Industrial Ag Execs (R) have shit on their own Bruno Magli loafers

republicans have no one but themselves to blame

[Wellstone ruled]

9. This is just the tip of the

collapse of the Farm Economy. Our Grain Grower friends in the MidWest are facing a disaster as we speak. Here is a little factoid,Today's Corn Futures are $3.73 per bushel,now here is what it costs on average to replace that 3.73 bushel,with all the seed,fertilizer,fuel and land rent is north of $3.92per bushel. That number is two years old,so it most likely is some what higher.

As of this past week,two of our Farmer Friends are contemplating doing Auction in order to stave off a probably Bankruptcy. The felling among their Friends and Neighbors,who BTW all voted for Trump,are scared by canceled Mexico Corn Buys as well as the Canceled China Corn,Beans,and Wheat forward purchasing orders last week.


There was a Major Implement Dealer Auction last week in the Midwest,sounds like that sale was a financial bust for any and all used equipment even after extensive advertising and bringing in the so called Guru of Farm Auctions to run this Auction.

Just the tip of the looming Farm Crisis to come this year.

[NewJeffCT]

14. Thanks for that information

We just need to make sure they don't blame it all on Obama.

[Wellstone ruled]

16. That

strategy is showing up in Letters to the Editor and Op Eds in local Papers.

You are going to see the Real SCROTUS at work when this blows up,and watch how he will ditch these folks big time. Reagan did it,Bush did it and of course Nixon never seen a farmer he liked.

[Achilleaze]

30. Thank you for the real facts. Sick of republican 'alternative facts'

...as the republicans so blatantly suckered the heartland, and now are screwing the heartland.

Why do republicans hate America's farmers?

[Wellstone ruled]

32. Simply because

they tend to be more Conservative/Religious and easily manipulated by Local Media. Spent decades doing campaigns in Rural Areas. What a interesting dynamic one encounters,if you grew up in a Rural Lifestyle that in its self makes entry in to discussions of Politics much easier.

Show up in a suit,you are either a Politician or Insurance peddler.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. Mexicans already have been organizing a boycott of US goods, especially beef.

They are going to buy from South America. Lots of cattle in Brazil and Argentina.

Canada just signed a trade treaty with the European Union and is eager to export beef there, and to China.

Lower demand for US beef means lower prices and lower futures prices.

[Skidmore]

13. Othr casulties.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/agriculture/2017/01/23/iowa-could-lose-big-if-trump-moves-lead-trade-war-experts-say/96946684/

[randr]

17. Read somewhere else that Mexico is looking to replace corn sales from American farmers as well.

I believe the article said the Mexico is a major importer of corn from the US.
Some of the impact will not be able to be stopped as Trump has already put us on every ones shit list already.

[JI7]

72. just saw an article saying they will buy from argentina

[GulfCoast66]

18. Hoisted on their own petard

I guarantee over 90% of them voted for him.

Ever farmer and rancher I know did and I know several.

[hatrack]

22. It's OK - they can water their cattle with "liberal tears" . . .

Stupid fuckers.

[dalton99a]

59. Yep. Fuck them.

[Hekate]

24. But hey, he's going to build that wall to keep us all in. ur, I mean keep the bad hombres out.

H.L. Mencken was right.

[orwell]

25. All predictable...

...International trade is a complex dynamic best left to professional politicians, trade economists, political scientists, professional diplomats...you know - competent professionals with experience.

Instead we now determine complex trade policy on bulletin boards, conspiracy sites, political forums, Cable News channels, Facebook and Twitter. The "dumberati" electorate are herded about like sheep braying in the wind, unaware of how they are manipulated by social media algorithms and professional marketing operations.

How else can you explain the rise of an incompetent con-man like Drumpf to the highest office in the land. We have never known a real trade war in our lifetimes. It ain't pretty folks. It is incredibly destabilizing both politically and economically.

We have met the enemy and he is us...

[liberal N proud]

26. Most likely trump supporters

[ginnyinWI]

27. Solution: grow vegetables, go vegetarian!

Better for your health, better for the environment!

[irisblue]

28. how many ranch hands are packing up? nt

[tblue37]

40. Probably a lot of them can feel Trump's ICE breathing down their necks anyway. nt

[mvd]

29. I'm fully against TPP. But we have someone in Trump..

who doesn't understand the ramifications or know how to compose new trade strategy. Trade war alone is not the solution.

[mvd]

33. We need to scrap TPP and put in something without the..

loss of national sovereignty, Wall Street benefit, environmental concerns and corporate world influence. Trump's other policies will cancel out any gain from dropping TPP.

[Blue_true]

46. Have you read the details of the TPP? nt

[mvd]

47. Sure

The ones allowed to be out there.

[Recursion]

57. The complete text of the TPP and its appendices has been online for over a year now

People get incredibly silly about this

[mvd]

58. After about 5 years

I'll can go over it again, as I saw parts since it took a while, but my concerns won't magically disappear. I disagreed with Obama on quite a few things, so just because he was for it, doesn't mean it is good. I sure do wish he was back in power now though! Anyway I feel like gong back to Trump bashing instead of arguing this over and over.

[Recursion]

60. Well, China is now negotiating their version of the TPP with the Pacific rim

You'll see why Obama supported the TPP once that's enacted

[mvd]

63. Sorry, I doubt it

I am not a fan of anything about it.

[Recursion]

66. Why don't you want Vietnamese workers to have independent unions?

Or Malaysian workers to have a minimum wage? What the hell is the matter with you? How can you possibly be against those things?

[mvd]

68. This convo is done.

That's just personal and wrong. We would lose jobs to those countries! And based on past agreements, no minimum wage is guaranteed. Corporations fly around any requirements. Please do not reply again.

[Recursion]

70. Please stop with the alternate facts here

We would lose jobs to those countries!

Less than we are now without a minimum wage and independent unions.

And based on past agreements, no minimum wage is guaranteed.

OMG. Alternative facts on DU too?

Learn something about how past trade deals have operated before you form an opinion next time.

[TheDebbieDee]

31. But guess who will pay if these ranchers file for subsidies

To make up for the income shortfall?

[MontanaMama]

35. Well goody good good for you Texas!

You bought and paid for this orange idiot. Somehow you'll figure out a way to blame PBO. Gah!

[Blue_true]

48. Someone pointed out that big ranchers and farmers will

apply for and get subsidies. We pay regardless of whether we eat beef or not.

[Angry Dragon]

36. aren't they glad they voted for trump

[workinclasszero]

41. All I can say to this is...

Elections have consequences assholes!!

[Blue_true]

49. They will get subsidies, we will pay. We need to

be vocal about repealing subsidies for ranchers and farmers. They need to be forced to face the consequences of their voting behavior.

[workinclasszero]

50. BS!

No welfare for the rich!

[CrispyQ]

69. Re-read Blue's post. --nt

[Missn-Hitch]

42. Good. Let the consequences become manifest.

[WhiteTara]

43. Too bad they voted for this sh*t show

If they had used their brains instead of their emotions, their lives would be better along with ours.

[Squinch]

51. Ha ha.

(Point and laugh.)

[Historic NY]

52. Let them eat coal!!!!.

[DonCoquixote]

53. a true bitter harvest

Hey all the farmers in the red states

The ones that voted for Trump!

The ones that did what the church told you to do!

The ones that want to send a special "fuck you" to Barack Obama and the rest of the nation but want to take the first few steps towards an America that worked for everybody.

Not only are you going to take a bath thanks to this, but the banks have absolutely no reason to save you, as foreign investors are already looking at your little farm and see the next drugstore with big-box market. You did this to yourself, because you got angry when Obama told the truth; you did not make it all by yourself, you needed the government to protect you from the sort of bankers and profiteers that Trump just made his cabinet picks.

I truly hate to sound vindictive, but this next part I can say as a former Pennsylvania resident. Pennsylvania, you gave 20,000 votes to Trump, which made all the difference, I hope you get hit the hardest. Nothing will go ahead and be a true harvest of your labors that you see the sort of people you supported when you voted for Trump take your land, take your money, then leave you some babbling fool will still find a way to blame Obama.

Enjoy your harvest, Trump voters.

[GoCubsGo]

54. He'll make up for it by letting them exploit public lands for pennies on the dollar.

Most of them likely voted for him. Bed. Made. Lie.

[adigal]

55. Oh, too bad. The animal slaughterers are being destroyed by their own fellow

Screw them. karma

[Recursion]

56. All 38 members of the Texas Congressional delegation oppose the wall

They also are not happy with a President who seems to alienate Texas's biggest trade partner just for fun.

[Ilsa]

67. I wonder if their constituents know that?

I kept hearing that farmers and ranchers along the borders wanted a wall, were killing people trespassing on their land.

[Recursion]

71. Not so much in TX; that's AZ and CO (and western NM)

Texas ranchers know very well where their workers are coming from and where their cows are going.

[JI7]

61. they voted for it

[Cha]

62. Most certainly did.. they own a big chunk of that

[oasis]

65. As Oprah Winfrey quietly chuckles offstage.