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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat might Trump do in North Korea?
One scenario I can imagine Trump considering is a massive bombing raid, using our entire fleet of B-52s, each carrying massive guided conventional bombs. I have little doubt that we have precisely detailed information about where all NK military assets are. Some are, no doubt, in deep underground bunkers, but not all.
This would be an attempt at a decapitation raid, with Kim Jung Un as a primary target. I suspect, though, that we don't know his exact location, since he's as paranoid a leader as you'll find anywhere. Well, almost, anyhow.
This type of preemptive attack would be just the sort of thing Trump would find attractive. I'm not sure what his military advisers would think of the plan, but that really doesn't matter all that much to Trump. He could order it and it would be carried out.
Let's hope that someone is able to convince him not to pull a stunt like that.
Zoonart
(11,876 posts)The generals are our only hope here. I think that Mattis and the other generals in the WH are already chaffing at being pushes around by the political apparatchiks.
Is a military coup in our future?
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)would take place. I really can't.
Jonny Appleseed
(960 posts)We're dealing with a Cerberus where each head has a different agenda. One head wants to continue guarding hell, another head wants to change hell by restricting the nationalities and race of the souls allowed in, and the final head wants to leave hell to drill for oil (which is ironic because hell is perfectly capable of being sustainable on renewable sources of energy such as its molten lakes of fire).
Wounded Bear
(58,698 posts)certainly an attempt to take out all of the missile launchers capable of launching regional/long range missiles.
Seoul is a big target, and it's in range of conventional artillery, of which NK has many, many units along the DMZ. They would certainly strike back and there would be thousands of casualties, mostly civilians and many of them US citizens in the city working and living.
Ugly scenarios abound.
exboyfil
(17,865 posts)From Wikipedia:
North Korea has thousands of artillery pieces near the DMZ. Experts believe that 60 percent of its total artillery is positioned within a few kilometers of the DMZ acting as a deterrent against any South Korean invasion because of the damage they could inflict on Seoul and suburbs like Paju (population 427,668) which is only 10 kilometers from the DMZ. In the event of all-out war it is believed that North Korea could fire 500,000 rounds of artillery on northern Seoul within the first hour.[37]
I have to hope, if we are insane enough to start a war, that all the wealth that SK and the US have spent on their military will translate in a significant advantage. Do we have a way to take out that artillery?
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)at Dien Bien Phu, ca. 1954.
exboyfil
(17,865 posts)Just ask the British in Boston.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)Historic NY
(37,452 posts)KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)come from?"
d_r
(6,907 posts)tunnels that they can transport through
jpak
(41,758 posts)They could quickly kill thousands and render Seoul uninhabitable for a long time.
http://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-has-stockpiles-nerve-gas-south-korea-warns-560246
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)Last edited Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:47 AM - Edit history (1)
scenario?
d_r
(6,907 posts)the underdog is SOUTH Korea
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)the President of Samsung likes to look out of the windows of his house at the shanty towns at the bottom of the hill and has been quoted as saying he prefers that view to any other. IOW, the President of Samsung is just as bad or worse than Trump.
This is the utter moral shit we are preparing to defend?
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)Who do you know who has some sort of intimate relationship with the President of Samsung and knows what he says in private?
Of course, you're not going to reveal that, even if your source exists. But, it does raise questions. If you have such a source, you're very well connected. If not, then you're just guessing like the rest of us.
I wonder which it is...
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)its security services for leftist activities. Apparently, though, this statement by Samsung's president was made to, and reported in, the South Korean press. He made no attempt to sugarcoat his opinion. My friend asked me to boycott Samsung products because of this and other regressive policies pursued by Samsung.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)I don't "root" for warfare of any kind.
I'm not a fan of North Korea, though. Not in any way. Not at any time.
xor
(1,204 posts)Even if American losses are low, millions of South and North Koreans civilians would be caught in the crossfire. I can't say I see anything good coming from that. I wish North Korea would stop poking the idiot ape in the white house.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)I suspect not all that many.
jpak
(41,758 posts)October 19/15: Boeings GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) will undergo a second phase redesign, known as the Enhanced Threat Reduction IV, with a contract anticipated soon external link external link. With no plans to competitively procure the weapon, the next GBU-57 contract expected to be for the redesign, qualification and testing of the weapon will be a sole-course acquisition. The bunker-busting bomb has been in development since 2004, with early tests conducted by the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency. The hard-penetrating weapon is intended to be carried on B-2A Spirit stealth bombers, thought to be capable of carrying two of the weapons in internal bays.
<more>
We probably have a bunch
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)I have no way to find out about such things. Typically, they're classified information.
I'm just mentioning a scenario that might have entered Trump's tiny little brain.
jpak
(41,758 posts)MineralMan
(146,325 posts)I think.
North Korea has developed some nuclear weapons, but I don't know what they have actually deployed in a ready state. It would not surprise me, though, if we had that information, along with a lot of other information. Despite NK being so tightly closed and paranoid, I imagine our intelligence about NK's military capability and order of arms is pretty thorough.
The wild card here is Trump, himself. And that's a weird, unpredictable wild card. I doubt he has much knowledge of military actions at all, and most of what he does have is probably wrong. He can get briefings from the military now, though, and I'm sure he has requested plans for actions that could be taken against North Korea.
However, I think he is apt to ignore advice and run with whatever strange plan he has concocted in his fevered little brain. He's not one to dwell on possible consequences, either. I'd be interested in hearing if there has been any uptick in activity at military installations in the Pacific region. I haven't heard anything so far, though.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)Of course, we have a lot of other conventional weaponry.
jpak
(41,758 posts)1 plutonium processing facility
1 ICBM missile test site.
20 is enough
Doodley
(9,119 posts)MineralMan
(146,325 posts)Even Trump is not that stupid.
maryellen99
(3,789 posts)"What's the point of having Nuclear Weapons if you can't use them"? Yes I think he is that stupid and will use them.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)simply say, "No, Mr. President. We aren't going to do that, sir, with all due respect. You're going to need to get Congress to approve such a thing."
The President is the Commander in Chief, but such a thing has never been tested. I could be wrong, but I believe that would be a point of refusal by the military. The President could order it, but it would still have to be carried out, and he can't do that. He doesn't know how to do that. So, the Chiefs of Staff could thwart such an order. It has never been tried, though, so I'm just going on common sense with my belief.
maryellen99
(3,789 posts)I'm terrified
Moostache
(9,897 posts)They would likely see such an order as the ultimate test of loyalty to their oath and would execute it unhesitatingly. That is exactly why we have civilian control and authority over the military, because the very act of being in the military drums the humanity and reason out of the active participants. It is believed that there is no other way to be an effective fighting force than to adhere to a strict chain of command and following of orders without question.
Time and time again, from the time of the Greeks and Romans to the Ottomans and Napoleon to the conquest of the native peoples of North America, to the massacre pits of trench warfare, to the Nazi's and Stalin to My Lai and others, to Abu Gharib....history is replete with tales of the military's capacity for horrific action in the name of "orders". (Civilians in time of war have no better track record of compassion or restraint either...)
If it comes to shooting and we are taking heavy losses of life (as in the firebombing of Seoul and South Korea and Tokyo and Japan), then I do not see anything at all that would restrain our Orange SHit-gibbon "leader" from ordering a nuclear strike. And I do not see anything in the military culture or chain of command that would stop it either. They do not consider restraint or thoughtful contemplation part of the job description...
maryellen99
(3,789 posts)PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)Well, we can start with VP 'Pentecostal Pence' for one. I believe his Cabinet is crawling with 'em too.
No idea though, how many 'end-timers' are in the top Brass.
hatrack
(59,592 posts)I wouldn't be so confident.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)such an order would be followed.
Paladin
(28,271 posts)RKP5637
(67,112 posts)other nations. It could prove a horrific scenario.
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)Would Seoul then become rubble from N. Korea artillery fire? Does Kim launch his medium range birds to Japan? Mated with nukes, or not?
I remember reading that young Kim's father told him that, " If you know you're going down, you have nothing to lose, so take everyone you can down with you."
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)However, dealing with NK's ability to attack Seoul would have been part of that planning, I'd think, don't you?
True Dough
(17,314 posts)is to limit the damage to Seoul. Even a perfectly coordinated effort is unlikely to prevent North Korea from launching some missiles southward. We can keep our fingers crossed that those missiles land in locations that lead to minimal damage. After all, North Korea is well armed, but much of their technology still lacks pinpoint accuracy.
Under such a scenario, we should be prepared for a significant loss of life in the south, however. Just a question of whether it reaches the tens of thousands or maybe even the hundreds of thousands.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)Truly he doesn't.
dalton99a
(81,568 posts)as happened many times to individual visitors
Heartstrings
(7,349 posts)My 7 year old grandson is going to spend this Summer in Japan with his Japanese side of the family...
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)Maybe your Grandson can invite his Japanese relatives to come over here instead?
Course, the N. Koreans are feverishly working on delivering a long range missile capable of reaching the West Coast (San Francisco-Portland-Seattle) that experts think is maybe a year or two away from becoming a reality. But no one knows for sure, it could be ready even sooner.
Heartstrings
(7,349 posts)he was going to go to school with his cousins, they have the 2nd best educational systems globally...perfect his 2nd language...not too mention the families yuuuge! I'm scared for them as well...
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)"Diplomacy has failed with North Korea- military action is 'on the table'."
Johonny
(20,879 posts)and a few cheap labor plants for his daughter.
dalton99a
(81,568 posts)They've been waiting for an attack for decades.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)to deal with such air defenses, and NK is not known for the reliability of its military installations, really. What NK has is mostly Chinese, with some old Soviet technology still hanging around.
jpak
(41,758 posts)dalton99a
(81,568 posts)Their radar capability is relatively modern.
jpak
(41,758 posts)n/t
dalton99a
(81,568 posts)The reality was many Iraqi pilots didn't know how to fly, and most preferred to avoid direct combat. A lot of it was piss-poor training and poorer motivation. The North Koreans are a different bunch.
jpak
(41,758 posts)They would shot down in short order.
dalton99a
(81,568 posts)Their hardware has been expanded and upgraded in recent years. For example, their guidance system is now harder to jam.
jpak
(41,758 posts)no need to even get near their air defenses.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)That's why they're still in the arsenal, and their countermeasures have been upgraded again and again. They're not particularly vulnerable to a country like North Korea, which does not have the most recent armaments that might be used against them.
They're not dive bombers, after all. They can stand very far off and still be enormously deadly and accurate.
Historic NY
(37,452 posts)jpak
(41,758 posts)with 15 seconds warning.
Tomahawks out-range the Kh-35 and there is no reason to put them in their range.
Golden Raisin
(4,612 posts)given the particularly volatile personalities and egos of Kim Jong-un and Trump. If the generals don't convince or prevent Trump from a massive bombing of North Korea we can possibly expect a side order at home of either martial law, cancellation of elections, etc. Bannon is just itching for an excuse to bring it all down in flames.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)Trump needs right at the moment. That, to me, makes something like this seem more likely to occur. Trump is possibly on the edge of some major setback. I'm not sure what that might be, exactly, but he's walking a thin line in many areas.
A big military action works as a distraction, and always has. However, it would also have the potential to bring him down very quickly if it went wrong. But, Trump's an optimist when it comes to his own ideas. He's always sure they'll work out just great. He's a "tremendous thinker," you know. He has "wonderful ideas."
Frankly, I'm not looking at this as some sort of appropriate thing for him to do. I'm thinking about it as being something he might do to distract from an impending political disaster for himself.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.274 , Jul 2, 2000
Couple of problems though. Seoul would be instantly obliterated by masses of artillery pre-aimed and ready to roar at a second's notice and the evil dictator of NK has nukes.
Seoul's Vulnerability Is Key to War Scenarios
A U.S. strike on the North may provoke a catastrophic retaliation against South's capital.
By Barbara Demick, Times Staff Writer
SEOUL -- When the U.S. military tries to explain the difficulty of using force to stop North Korea's development of nuclear weapons, the oddly poetic phrase it turns to is the "tyranny of proximity."
The phrase, which has been in the lexicon of the U.S. forces in South Korea for years, stems from the imposing array of conventional artillery that the North Koreans have dug into the hills just north of the demilitarized zone, a mere 30 miles from this capital city of 12 million. The nightmare scenario is that if the United States opts for a more forceful approach to curb North Korea's nuclear ambitions, the communist regime would retaliate not only against the 38,000 American troops stationed in South Korea, but also against South Korea itself.
http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/bioter/seoulsvulnerability.html
dalton99a
(81,568 posts)in a very short time.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)No nukes needed.
The NK dictator would probably try to hit mainland Japan with those if he thinks hes going down for good.
dalton99a
(81,568 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Interestingly, Seoul's population density is almost twice that of New York City, four times higher than Los Angeles and eight times higher than the density of Rome.
http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/seoul-population/
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)get a feel for Donald Trump's erratic decision-making. He's not put together all that well, and really doesn't seem to consider all factors before taking action. He thinks only in the short-term, and rarely considers consequences.
That's why I'm concerned about a scenario like this one. As for North Korea's nuclear capabilities, I have no idea whether they have deployed any workable nuclear devices that could be used. I'm sure the IC has that information, though. I also imagine that we know the precise location of all of the conventional arms that threaten Seoul. How much of that we could neutralize immediately, I don't know. I'm sure a number of plans have been created, though, as exercises. That's what the military does when it's not engaging in immediate conflicts.
None of that, however, matters to Trump. If he needs a massive distraction to pull his ass out of some fire, he'll create it. That's his style.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)As soon as his batshit insane budget gets passed by the republican Congress and the economy goes down the shit-tubes.
spanone
(135,861 posts)he's deranged. the 'Obama wiretapp' is all the proof needed.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)RKP5637
(67,112 posts)bigger than Kim Jong-un's ... that, sadly, is the level at which Trump functions IMO. It could also give him the distraction he wants to pull himself (in his mind) out of the shit storm he's created during such a short time in office.
Bannon and his ilk would rejoice if martial law were to be declared across the US if institutions were to tumble as the US possibly braced for an all out war if such a scenario were to escalate totally out of control.
There is one thing for certain, something is bound to happen with the massive egos in N.K. and the WH.
wiggs
(7,817 posts)MineralMan
(146,325 posts)That ends up being done after the fact these days. The President has the War Powers Act. It gives him huge leeway in using the military, especially in the case of an "emergency situation."
I don't know what goes on in Trump's mind. Probably neither does he, actually.
wiggs
(7,817 posts)If we knew that attack from NK was imminent and beat them to the punch, then that would be legal and pre-emptive.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)its legal and moral rights now to launch pre-emptive strikes on the South and the 38,000 U.S. troops stationed in the DMZ. They would not even need a U.N. Security Council blessing to do so.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)I'm sure. I don't have a lot of detailed information, frankly, so I'm just trying to put myself in Trump's mind and see what he might be considering. This is just weird enough and scary enough for him to do. As I said above, he may know that he needs a massive distraction to divert attention away from some upcoming information release.
If that's the case, I would not put it past him to do something like this.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)If you think it has a legal and moral right to attack South Korea, I'm even more concerned. I can't remember a lot of people who have expressed such support here, but I do remember a couple.
In any case, I'm not supporting any such attack by the Trump administration. I think it would be a horrible mistake. However, I believe that it within his limited capabilities to think that it would serve as a useful diversion. Do not mistake my musing about this as any sort of support for such a thing.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)do not require U.N. Security Council approval. (Preventative wars do require said Sec. Council approval.) Tillerson and Trump have just created an imminent threat of aggressive war, to which DPRK is entitled under international law to respond. Or are you saying that only the U.S. gets to claim the protections of international law? If so, you should be upfront about that.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)I'm speculating on what Trump might do. It is my opinion of what might happen.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)to defend herself, especially against a fascist POS like Trump?
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)wiggs
(7,817 posts)to pull the plug if things ratchet up
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)destroying Seoul.....our crazy forcing their crazy to do crazy and then that is that folks as who knows how China and Riussia would react to Trump's nuking of north korea in retaliation...
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)He also doesn't care about Seoul, really.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)faced with onslaught of a million man army with 8 million in reserves, trumps answer would be nukes...you gotta remember who does trump have around him...they are all nutcases hoping for such a confrontation
chelsea0011
(10,115 posts)Whatever he does will escalate the issue.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)chelsea0011
(10,115 posts)MineralMan
(146,325 posts)It rarely is. It's highly classified stuff. And rightly so.
California_Republic
(1,826 posts)MineralMan
(146,325 posts)maryellen99
(3,789 posts)wiggs
(7,817 posts)when they have to but when they can.
In their minds, hierarchy is everything.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)which he may well be right now, it would be hard to find a bigger distraction, except maybe for wiping out Iran's nuclear capabilities altogether, which is another possibility that's probably whirling around in his spinning brain.
It's just that North Korea is particularly newsworthy right now, and Tillerson has been in Japan and South Korea and is in China today. I don't know what the conversations entail, but the media is being kept at a distance on this trip.
I have a sense of foreboding over all of this, to be quite frank.
liberal N proud
(60,339 posts)He would love to drop a nuke on someone.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)A lot will depend on who Trump is listening to. If he listens to the Generals, they'll advise him to forget that nonsense. If he's listening to Bannon, on the other hand, he might hear a different line of advice, since Bannon is certifiably nuts.
I'm hopeful that good sense will prevail, but very worried that it will not.
Motley13
(3,867 posts)might do, I fear he will take us with him & what better way than to start a war?
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)the White House. If he thinks a military distraction will do the job, then he will create one. A lot depends on how worried he is about some news forcing a showdown with the Republicans in Congress. That news might exist and just be waiting to break. If that's true, then he's likely to create a massive distraction to prevent him from being forced out of the White House.
What are the Russians saying to him? The channels of communication are thinner than they were before the election, but are still operating, I'm sure. That may matter more than anything else.
longship
(40,416 posts)Very thoughtful thread.
An attack on DPRK would likely end in disaster. Or worse.
One thing, though. I do not think that DPRK has a deliverable nuke. Their tests were all very low yield, almost within the range of conventional explosives. Intelligence would clearly tell whether they were in fact nuclear detonations. But that info would be classified. Still, seismic measurements would tell as a nuclear explosion has a very specific signature. That data might be publically available.
I must presume that DPRK has at least the makings of a dirty bomb, however.
Thanks, MM. you've stimulated some interesting discussion here.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)Trump is the wild card in all of this. He defies prediction, sadly, and is capable of doing things we'd all thing were irrational.
That is a great source of worry for me.
longship
(40,416 posts)MineralMan
(146,325 posts)Kimchijeon
(1,606 posts)But I also realize that Bannon would love it, hence I'm really worried.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)Sadly, we have no means to help Trump understand why.
He is beyond reason.
bathroommonkey76
(3,827 posts)MineralMan
(146,325 posts)Or at least horribly damaged. Trump, however, probably doesn't see that as a reason not to attack North Korea. Trump probably doesn't even understand where Seoul is, really, in relation to the border.
He is that disconnected from reality. He probably also imagines Seoul as a sleepy little city. He may know that South Korea is the home of Samsung, but he may not even know that. Surely he doesn't know that Hyundai/KIA are major exporters of automobiles to the United states and have factories here that employ US workers.
What Donald Trump doesn't know is just about everything. And he has no interest in learning, either.
bathroommonkey76
(3,827 posts)North Korea has one of the world's largest stockpiles of chemical weapons-- sarin, mustard, tabun and hydrogen cyanide would be volleyed over into SK within minutes. NK would use everything in its arsenal if they feel threatened by the United States and SK.
You're right about Trump's mental illness. But I do think he is smart enough to know that winning/ending the Korean War would make him a hero in GOP circles. Trump needs this gratification from within the GOP and his supporters to survive.
He hears their cheers 24 hours a day. If we gained access to his thoughts I'm sure we'd see the imaginary confetti falling, ticker tape parades, and chants of "Trump, Trump, Trump" reverberating across all of the TV speakers across the world.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)You're right. Whatever he decides will be based primarily on its impact on Donald Trump, and not much else. That is what makes him so dangerous, because what is good for him is generally not good for everyone else.
Bayard
(22,128 posts)PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)Recommended viewing. (Holy 'Bombs Away' Batman!)
General Hayden starts at 0:42.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)They're well worth listening to.
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)On one Morning Joe episode (wish I could find it now), Scar posed a question to General Hayden regarding safeguards or checks preventing Donald from launching nuclear birds out of their silos or from submarines, etc.
Scar basically asked him if a decision for a nuclear strike would have to go through appropriate channels to get an OK or approval.
General Hayden said, "No, he can do it and do it quickly." The system and policy is specifically and intentionally designed for immediate action. The time from decision to launch is about 4 minutes. Once anything is launched, there's no calling it back nor ability for self-destruct either.
Now, I'm thinking this is all premised on assuming a President is of sound mind, which we don't have presently.
Should he decide to go nuclear first strike, I'm hoping somebody in close proximity will be a patriot, take one for the team (planet) and do what's necessary with their service weapon. I'm serious.
L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)The minute Trump tries to start a war, it is over for him. He lacks the necessary respect for people to do what he says under such circumstances.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)I am, however, not certain that you are correct. That worries me. A lot.