Cease-Fire In Peril As Rebels Trap 5,000 Ukrainian Troops
Source: Washington Post
SVITLODARSK, Ukraine — The Ukrainian military admitted Tuesday that it no longer had full control over the strategic railway hub of Debaltseve, as rebel leaders claimed to have seized broad swaths of ground in street-by-street combat, including the train station.
The apparent gains in Debaltseve by pro-Russian separatists came as they and Ukrainian forces picked up the pace of their artillery battles, trading fire in areas around the city despite a three-day-old cease-fire under which the two sides were to remove their heavy weapons from the front lines starting Tuesday.
During the day, the Ukrainian military was seen and heard firing projectiles from multiple rocket launchers along a highway leading to Debaltseve, while evidence of shelling from rebel positions also was apparent, especially near a power plant outside Svitlodarsk, where one shell hit a gas pipe, causing a fiery explosion.
The worsening situation posed a critical challenge to the continued viability of the cease-fire, which never really took effect around Debaltseve, although it was observed at other points along the front lines since going into effect Sunday. And before the fighting in and around Debaltseve potentially unravels the fragile peace elsewhere in eastern Ukraine, the government faces the question of what to do about the 5,000 troops all but trapped in the contested city.
Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/clashes-over-ukraine-rail-hub-test-pledges-to-begin-weapons-withdrawal/2015/02/17/8c7be78c-b6a0-11e4-aa05-1ce812b3fdd2_story.html
Putin Tells Kiev To Let Troops Surrender As Ukraine Ceasefire Unravels
(Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin told Kiev to let its soldiers surrender to pro-Russian rebels, who spurned a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and fought their way on Tuesday into the town of Debaltseve, encircling thousands of government troops.
A peace deal reached at all-night talks in the Belarussian capital Minsk last week had all but unravelled, with both sides failing to begin pulling back heavy guns as required after the rebels refused to halt their advance.
Putin, whom Western countries accuse of directing the rebel assault with Russian soldiers and weapons, said Kiev should allow its soldiers to surrender to the advancing rebels.
"I hope that the responsible figures in the Ukrainian leadership will not hinder soldiers in the Ukrainian army from putting down their weapons," Putin said.
"If they aren’t capable of taking that decision themselves and giving that order, then (I hope) that they won’t prosecute people who want to save their lives and the lives of others.”
more...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/18/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKBN0LL0OM20150218
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oldandhappy
(6,719 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Only thing that matters is tanks on the ground, and at what point Ukraine can defend its own borders. That means conceding territory it can't defend, and putting the rest into NATO.
former9thward
(32,009 posts)So that option is out.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)And will never honor them.
Sit down with Putin, and negotiate a partition of Ukraine with him. He gets to annex everything on one side, and the other side gets NATO tanks.
East Ukraine is lost to this latest round of the proud Russian tradition, centuries-long, ofinvading and terrorizing its neighbors and taking their land by force.
NATO is the only thing that's ever stopped them. So that's where this is going.
OnlinePoker
(5,720 posts)Look how well that worked out.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)Eastern Ukraine but it is an important strategic position for the pro-Russian East Ukrainian forces. Just based on the map, this looks like it would be aggression primarily by the pro-Russian forces. But I cold be wrong. It just looks that way. They may be headed toward Donetsk and then to the Black Sea from the North as well as trying to consolidate additional territory in Eastern Ukraine.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)in the middle of the front.
There is no peace as long as there are 5000 troops basically inside the eastern line. It destroys any trust.
Not that it means that the east is in the right either. But it is just the fact that this is a big problem.
The question will be what happens once they have Debalsevo. That will be where the rubber meets the road.
There is going to be no succession unless the war doesn't stop. So the line is not as important for Kiev. Let the line straighten out and then move to federalization.
Federalization for Ukraine simply means that the region does not have mayors and oblast governors that are installed by Kiev. They get elected. In fact, Ukraine really should go to a federal setup because installing governors is one of the mechanisms that corruption uses (the governors/mayors funnel back funds to the bank accounts in Kiev in exchange for the favor and their own enrichment).
The orange hole inside the pink area is the "cauldron" that is causing the trouble.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)They should have negotiated this issue about this particular location. Let's see what happens. The straight line bit would have been something to talk about during the negotiations if that was what Russia wanted.
I'm for the federalism. I've been reading a fascinating book, Paris, 1919, Six months that changed the world. It is about the negotiating of the Treaty of Versailles at the end of WWI.
Ukraine is not a specific issue in the book, but the situation in Ukraine is much like the description of Eastern Europe and various areas that had to be defined in terms of nationality. The goal (especially of the Americans and Wilson in particular) was self-determination. In fact, that was not an easy concept to put into practice because people within geographic areas spoke different languages. This was especially true in what was until the Clinton administration Yugoslavia. But it was also true of Poland. Much of central Europe is a hodge-podge of small groups of people who speak a language living next to another group of people speaking a different language. Ukraine is apparently no exception to this. Hard to define "nationality" in a situation like that.
Federalism works in our country although nearly all of us accept English as the major language. It also works in Austria which borders on Eastern Europe.
As a Californian, I am very happy that we get to elect our own governor. I would hate to have to be governed by the rest of the country within my own city or state. We are often considerably more liberal than say Arizona -- especially on issues like the status of immigrants, climate change, same-sex marriage, etc.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)But yes, if things don't calm down if/after Debaltsevo is under rebel control, it gets much more difficult to imagine a peaceful resolution in the near future.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)stay there and then negotiate the issue after the cease-fire is really holding. The town is not that strategic to the rebels unless they want to control the rail line. They should be more concerned about getting peace if peace is what they want.
If the rebels make a huge deal out of the presence of those troops and do not permit a negotiated and orderly withdrawal or exchange or peaceful resolution of the situation, they are demonstrating a lack of desire to resolve issues peacefully.
The presence of those Ukraine troops in that location is more an excuse for continuing to fight for the Russian-supported separatists than it is a real issue.
The situation will resolve itself quickly because the Russian-supported rebels are basically in control of that area. They can afford to surround the 5,000 troops and wait it out patiently until the situation is resolved through negotiation.
The world will be watching this. It will be a way for Putin to demonstrate whether he wants war or peace. If he relaxes about the presence of the Ukraine troops there, it is a sign he wants peace. If he makes a big deal about getting them out, it is a sign he wants war.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)I have the impression that Putin is a rather arrogant, impulsive person who takes things very personally.
Merkel is a very practical person, very patient and persistent but careful.
I would put my odds on Merkel, but I don't think she cares all that much about what happens in the Ukraine. She is just trying to be fair. Putin wants to prove something. Just what it is I do not know, but it probably is not worth the lives lost.
Ukraine might try to work toward being a neutral state in the current situation in Europe. That worked very well for Austria after WWII. And Switzerland has made fortunes out of its neutrality.
By neutrality, I mean economically neutral as well as militarily neutral. I don't know enough, however, about the situation in the Ukraine to know if that is possible. It takes shrewd leadership to play the neutrality card. In Ukraine's situation it would be idea. The Ukraine could then play one side against the other. It could also open up communication between Russia and other countries and that could help lead to a more peaceful central Europe. But I don't know whether Ukrainians have the national character to be able to carry that off. The Austrians and Swiss do, but then they are to a great extent mountain people who are very independent in a strange way.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)difficulty.
There is a lot of emotional engagement by the international community (on both sides) and that increases the difficulty. I expect this will take quite a while. Lots of "bad blood" involved. But we should continue to push for peace, and then push for Democracy which will ultimately be the answer.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)Duckhunter935
(16,974 posts)http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/141281
The "pro-Russians" are trying to take back some land they recently lost before the cease fire. That is not adhering to the cease fire they signed in the south either.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)
pampango
(24,692 posts)that are installed by Kiev."
I would agree. I believe that Putin appoints all governors in Russia. That is not a system that Ukraine should emulate.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I can find no reference to this area being exempt, or requiring Ukrainian national troops to withdraw. This is a CLEAR violation of the ceasefire.
msongs
(67,406 posts)
MattSh
(3,714 posts)Besides US propaganda?
Thanks in advance.
Think, think, think. NATO, the EU, Ukraine, and the USA have thoroughly broken the place. Why should Putin volunteer to fix it? What Putin wants is NO GENOCIDE OF ETHNIC RUSSIANS living in Ukraine. Genocide is what the Ukraine government is pursuing and was their plan from the very beginning.
cheapdate
(3,811 posts)Genocide, of course, being the systematic, mass, wholesale slaughter of an entire population.
Duckhunter935
(16,974 posts)the only one that is close is Russia with the Crimean Tartar's. They are being harassed, murdered and not allowed to return if abroad and the leaders have been banned from returning home for 5 years.
cheapdate
(3,811 posts)50,000 dead and over a million fleeing to Russia is not enough proof?
cheapdate
(3,811 posts)In 2014, before the outbreak of major fighting?
bemildred
(90,061 posts)"Last night, reports put the death toll from the conflict at 50,000 – 10 times previous estimates."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russias-growing-threat-after-ukraine-fears-grow-that-baltic-states-could-be-vladimir-putins-next-targets-10032378.html
Not at the level that I consider it confirmed fact either, but on the other hand the official numbers are no doubt low.
It is still only scattered about in Western media that I can see, and it may stay that way.
cstanleytech
(26,291 posts)of the Crimean Peninsula and that they have been supporting these so called rebels both with supplies and actual military assistance in combat with Russian troops.
As for your claims of genocide when did these claims start? Was it before or after the invasion from Russia?
MattSh
(3,714 posts)suggested they should nuke the east of Ukraine to rid it of 8 million ethnic Russians. Luckily Ukraine doesn't have nukes any more.
Hromadske TV (financed by the Dutch and US govt) journalist suggesting there are 1.5 million "surplus" people in the east of Ukraine.
The militantly pro-Ukrainian Dnipro Battalion leader- turned-MP Yuri Bereza has promised to "burn down Crimea, with all of its residents if needed," vociferously refusing to “liberate the peninsula in a somewhat cultural manner.” The saber-rattling politician, did not specify who might need the people to be burnt and why.
The threat was voiced in a live broadcast on the Ukrainian national TV channel 1+1.
And the US overthrow of the duly elected government happened BEFORE the Crimean vote to leave Ukraine and join Russia occurred.
ON EDIT: Oh, and PM Yatsenyuk calling ethnic Russians residing in East Ukraine "subhumans" a very Nazi and Hitlerian description.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)That is a blatant lie, repeatedly hurled about by the Russian government and its agents.
The corrupt president Putin bought fled to keep himself from going on trial, and to keep the money he had stolen.
The US did not overthrow him. That is a childish fantasy with zero factual basis peddled by people who hate the US and love Vladimir Putin.
I would tell you to have a little shame, but Putin's cheerleaders have none.
Man from Pickens
(1,713 posts)I really hope you're being paid to post your war propaganda, because if you actually believe it that is really, really sad.
The Nuland "F the EU" recording is damning, and utterly forbids your wildly bizarre interpretation of events.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)nonsense offends you folks playing for Team Putin.
Man from Pickens
(1,713 posts)There are more ways to view the world than being in lockstep with one power or another.
Any independent analysis shows that the US is the prime mover in the conflict in Ukraine, and pretending it is otherwise will only convince people you are either ignorant or dishonest.
This "with us or against us" attitude is straight out of the Bush administration, and you should be ashamed for putting it forth under your own handle.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)
cstanleytech
(26,291 posts)
Xolodno
(6,395 posts)...some of his posts over time on this issue have been practically "giddy" with the idea of a new possible Cold War. I don't bother with him anymore....and even put his buddy Tommy C on full ignore.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)you can add that twenty billion dollars in there as well. It's about as relevant as that tape.
Duckhunter935
(16,974 posts)Lets see some proof or you will proven that you are just again not telling the truth.
Lets see it, I dare you, in fact I double dog dare you
HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)Last edited Wed Feb 18, 2015, 11:36 PM - Edit history (1)
polly7
(20,582 posts)I'm behing?? better learn to spell.
HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)polly7
(20,582 posts)Do you have a little corner I should be staying in?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)polly7
(20,582 posts)NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)So yeah, LOL warmonger apologists.
polly7
(20,582 posts)You bet.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)Not the folks pulling out every Kremlin trick in the book to justify the invasion and annexation of Crimea.
You got us! 
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(101,319 posts)that has to suck up to Russia, with the West footing the bill for reconstruction:
You can’t blame Western negotiators or journalists for thinking this is what is going on, because it’s what the Ukrainians are bound to tell them. That doesn’t mean it is the underlying truth. The evidence so far is that what Russia actually wants is indirect influence over the whole of Ukraine, and for the West to pay for it.
...
The Ukrainian army and volunteer units have been fighting a war of containment, in two parts. One is military: stop the separatists breaking out into a wider area. Another is political, psychological and economic: create effectively a new border between Kiev-controlled and separatist-controlled Ukraine, disavowing any responsibility for pensions or essential services there, giving up any attempt to collect taxes, accepting the separatists’ rejection of Kiev-organised elections.
...
Hence his current strategy: to create a puppet state, a region that is both a Russian protectorate and part of the Ukrainian body politic; over which the majority of Ukrainians have no real control, but which has powers to shape Ukrainian national policy, and which the majority of Ukrainians are obliged to pay to rebuild. And since Ukraine is, financially, dependent on the West, it is the West that would pay.
http://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2015/02/12/james-meek/what-does-russia-want/
bemildred
(90,061 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Renounce any sovereignty over it while building a firewall around it.
Too bad, so sad for those on the wrong side of said firewall.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko says government forces have withdrawn from the flashpoint town of Debaltseve, where pro-Russian rebels have been battling troops for control for weeks.
Speaking from a snowy airfield in Kiev before leaving for the front lines, Mr Poroshenko praised Ukrainian forces for fulfilling their duty in defending Debaltseve and said they had shown the world "the true face of the bandits and separatists who are supported by Russia".
"This morning the Ukrainian armed forces together with the National Guard completed an operation for a planned and organised withdrawal from Debaltseve. As of now we can say that 80 per cent of our units have left," Mr Poroshenko said in an audio message released by his press service, adding that two more columns were expected to pull out.
http://www.watoday.com.au/world/ukraine-pulls-troops-out-of-the-flashpoint-town-of-debaltseve-20150218-13ints.html
bemildred
(90,061 posts)ARTEMIVSK, Ukraine (AP) -- Ukraine has pulled most of its troops out of Debaltseve, the president confirmed Wednesday. Dozens of troops were seen retreating and Russia-backed separatists reported taking hundreds of soldiers captive as they continued their onslaught on the strategic railroad junction in eastern Ukraine.
The army has withdrawn out 80 percent of its troops from the town and two more columns have yet to leave, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on his official Twitter account. He denied claims by the rebels that the Ukrainians were encircled and said the troops were leaving Debaltseve with their weapons and ammunition.
"Debaltseve was under our control, it was never encircled. Our troops and formations have left in an organized and planned manner," he said in televised comments.
Poroshenko spoke at a Kiev airport as he traveled to eastern Ukraine to "shake hands" of the soldiers who were pulled out of Debaltseve.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_UKRAINE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-02-18-06-03-56
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)to gain by unsettling them. I would say the same about Kiev, but they have no way of benefiting from more combat.
A durable partition of Ukraine with secure and fortified borders is the only workable solution to all of this. Draw a line somewhere between Kiev and Donetsk, one side is Russia the other NATO.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)snooper2
(30,151 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)... yeah, this is my surprised face:
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I thought I'd ask you to criticize the rebels, since you weren't volunteering to do so. If you have, please point it out and I'll be happy to tender an apology.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)And my appetite for trite old web cliches and attempts at insult and baiting is limited.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)... own fairly strident support for the Russian-backed rebels has invited some criticism. This IS, after all, a discussion forum. And if you are going to post your position publicly, you must expect criticism if that position is controversial, as yours is. If I seem a bit snarky with you, it's because I don't think you're a serious critical thinker. It seems to me, you only want to engage with information which would seem to support your own position and point of view. Your refusal to even post a "yeah, they broke the ceasefire, I wish they wouldn't have" could just stem form the discomfort of feeling you must defend an indefensible position (that was the discomfort I was referring to), or it could be that you don't have any actual criticism of it. By not responding, you tend to reinforce what your critics might already think about you and your position.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)I hope that feels better now.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)Feb 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed over the phone on Wednesday the implementation of a peace deal to end the conflict in east Ukraine, the foreign ministry said in a statement.
"The minister pointed out the importance of direct dialogue between Kiev, Donetsk and Luhansk, including a speedy end to armed clashes in the area of Debaltseve, and reiterated the obligations of the Ukrainian authorities to (conduct) constitutional reform and provide Donbass with a special status," the ministry said in a statement.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/18/ukraine-crisis-lavrov-kerry-idUSR4N0T102D20150218?rpc=401
bemildred
(90,061 posts)PARIS
The French government has insisted the ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia is "not dead" after pro-Russian separatists seized the key city of Debaltseve in eastern Ukraine.
French Government spokesperson Stephane Le Foll told reporters in Paris that the truce, signed last week in Minsk, "was not dead" and that France would do "everything to keep the agreement alive".
He said: "We will continue, we know we have some problems, we know that not everything has been settled.
"But between the situation just before the Minsk agreement and the situation now ... there has been progress."
http://www.aa.com.tr/en/rss/467364--france-says-ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal-not-dead
bemildred
(90,061 posts)The German government said on Wednesday that pro-Russian rebels' advance into the eastern Ukrainian city of Debaltseve was a serious breach of ceasefire terms agreed last week in Minsk.
The German government said on Wednesday that pro-Russian rebels' advance into the eastern Ukrainian city of Debaltseve was a serious breach of ceasefire terms agreed last week in Minsk.
“This will bring great suffering, further serious need to the people of the region,” government spokesman Steffen Seibert in a press statement.
The news came as American senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham accused Chancellor Angela Merkel of giving in to Russian President Vladimir Putin too easily.
http://www.thelocal.de/20150218/ukraine-debaltseve-government-condemns-ukraine-rebel-advance
bemildred
(90,061 posts)The Minsk Agreement of February 12, 2015, was arranged by the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine and contained important provisions concerning future treatment of citizens in the Russian-speaking, Russia-cultured eastern districts of Donetskand Luhansk oblasts in Ukraine where there has been vicious fighting between separatist forces and government troops supported by militias.
Most Western media did not report that the accord was signed by the leaders of the provinces (oblasts) of Donetsk and Luhansk as well as representatives of Russia and Ukraine, but the former two matter greatly in implementation of its provisions.
To the disappointment of much of the West, and especially the United States, it appears that the great majority of the inhabitants of these regions are to be granted much of what they have been seeking (with robust support by Russia), which includes the right to speak and receive education in their birth-language; restitution of pension payments and other central revenue moneys that were stopped by the Kiev government; constitutional reform of Ukraine including "approval of permanent legislation on the special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk"; and free local elections in the oblasts.
The way to peace will not be easy but the substance of the accord will go far to convincing the people of the eastern oblasts that they will not in future be treated as second-class citizens. They will be permitted an appropriate degree of decision-making in their regions, and if there is goodwill on the part of the Kiev government there is reason to believe that fair governance could apply. A major problem, however, is the attitude of the United States and Britain concerning Russia and Ukraine.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-01-180215.html
bemildred
(90,061 posts)MOSCOW, Feb. 18 (Xinhua) -- Russia on Wednesday urged all confronting parties in eastern Ukraine to stop hostilities everywhere in line with the Minsk agreements reached last week.
"We stand for the omnipresent (ceasefire), including in the Debaltsevo area," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters, stressing that there are no alternatives to the ceasefire in Ukraine.
Although the ceasefire is generally observed by conflicting sides up till now, there are attempts to break through the Debaltsevo encirclement through military forces rather than negotiations, according to Lavrov.
He expressed hope that the situation in Debaltsevo, where about 8,000 Ukrainian troops have been reportedly surrounded, would not be used to derail the peace process in Ukraine.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/europe/europe/2015-02/18/c_134005749.htm
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)
