Greek Referendum Polls Close: "No" Ahead With 51.5% Of The Vote; 48.5% For "Yes"

[magical thyme]

Source: Zero Hedge

At 7pm local time the Referendum polls closed. Here is what the early exit polls predict:
•GREEK POLLS CLOSE IN REFERENDUM ON BAILOUT
•GREEK REFERENDUM: NO SEEN AHEAD, MRB OPINION POLL SHOWS
•'NO' SEEN GETTING 51.5% VS 48.5% FOR YES IN GPO REFERENDUM POLL
•'NO' SEEN WITH 49% VS 46% FOR `YES' IN METRON OPINION POLL
•NO SEEN AHEAD WITH 49-54% VS 46-51% FOR YES: MRB GREEK POLL
•GREEK REFERENDUM: NO SEEN AHEAD, MARC OPINION POLL SHOWS

2 hours until the first official results are out but if this result remains unchanged, CNBC may have to bring its "markets in turmoil" producers early from holiday vacation.


Read more: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-05/greek-referendum-polls-close-no-ahead-515-vote-485-yes

---

I prefered the 60% from the other source.

[brooklynite]

4. Syriza has called for a "no" vote...

...they claim that a "no" vote will give them negotiating strength. The European Central Bank claims that a "no" vote will require Greece to leave the Euro Zone.

nb - Greece has already defaulted on their debt payments; if the ECB doesn't provide a bailout, the results are going to be very messy for the Greek economy.

[PoliticAverse]

7. Hey they're not in "default" they're "in arrears"...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/01/business/international/greece-is-placed-in-arrears-as-the-imf-spells-default.html?_r=0

[magical thyme]

5. "No" is a win for Syriza

It means the Greek people are rejecting more austerity offered by the Troika.

THe thing is, the recently revealed IMF report made it clear that they've known since the beginning of this mess that without debt restructuring, the loans had no chance of working. In other words, they deliberately set Greece up to collapse. They deliberately forced them to take on more loans to pay the older loans, without restructuring the debt, in order to increase their indebtedness to the point that the country collapsed. They knowingly, deliberately destroyed the Greek economy.

The IMF report was written back in 2010. The Troika deliberately hid this knowledge. It only was leaked last week.

Syriza refused the most recent offer because it did not include debt restructuring. It was just more "kicking the can down the road." It was an attempt to privatize the country -- to force them to sell all public assets at bankruptcy prices. To literally starve the Greeks into oblivion.

[Hoyt]

28. Why would "they" do that?

[magical thyme]

30. Shock Doctrine: to force Greece to privitize everything

water, utilities, the freakin' Parthenon, you name it. Everything.

It was an economic hit job. See "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" for full understanding.

[Hoyt]

32. Who is going to invest in Greece, any time soon?

[magical thyme]

33. Russia signed a deal with them within the past couple of weeks for their southern route gas pipeline

through Greece en route to Italy. They have multiple routes already through Germany; now Germany will lose its monopoly.

China has been in talks with Greece about having a port there. Plus they had hinted at assistance via the EU and very recently (last week?) hinted at direct assistance. They are cash- and gold-rich and have provided loans to bad credit risk countries before.

And the BRICs bank just got started.

So yes, Greece has options. Unlike their terrible history with Germany, they share cultural identity and strong historical ties with Russia through the Orthodox church. I don't know about their younger generations, but for the older generations (who are the ones who largely voted yes out of fear) that will have meaning.

And for the oldest who lived through the Nazi slaughter of 500,000 Greeks during the occupation, the forced debts to Germany by the Nazis, the Greek forgiveness of loans for German restoration followed by Germany's refusal to repay the original debts as war reparations, too the Western-backed coup of their democratically elected, leftist government...well, I think strengthening their ties with Russia will have meaning as well.

[Hoyt]

34. I bet Russia has them sign a strict Investor Dispute agreement. Seriously, I would not want to

depend on Russia for my future. But it might be a good fit for Greece.

[geek tragedy]

9. No means Grexit, yes means austerity.

Greeks are pretty much determining how they want to be screwed.

[Ed Suspicious]

14. Good for them. I'd choose the fuck you method of getting screwed which would be exit from

the austere scam as well.

[geek tragedy]

16. That's probably the best approach.

They need to control their own currency. If you don't control your own currency, you're not fully sovereign.

[brooklynite]

2. CAUTION: This is NOT an Exit Poll!!!

Per the BBC, the Greek Government didn't have money to pay for one. This was a Phone Survey during the voting period; it may not be an accurate reflection of actual voting.

[former9thward]

3. I believe the markets have already priced in a 'no' vote.

I doubt there will be 'turmoil' tomorrow. The market goes down most of the time on Monday's anyway.

[magical thyme]

21. Ameriprise disagrees

The market right now hasn’t priced in a potential ‘no’ vote,” said David Joy, the Boston-based chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial Inc., which oversees $815 billion. “If we get one, we’re going to see another round of downside volatility in excess of what we saw on Monday. The move would be more violent.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-05/trillion-dollar-asset-managers-warn-greece-fallout-no-blueprint-means-all-kinds-unce

[former9thward]

24. Current stock futures for Monday.

Dow down 29. We'll see.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures

[magical thyme]

25. it could go up if investors see it as a "safe haven"

personally, I just expect a lot of sloshing around as people yank their money out of the EU and look for a place to put it. I don't think they were expect a No or such a massive show of support for Syzira.

China's market has been sharply down all last week. Maybe it will go over there; maybe over here. Who freakin' knows?

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. No 'exit polls'; your source (an anonymous blogger, not a news site) has updated to show that

It now says "Here is what the early forecasts predict:", and not "what the early exit polls...".

Maybe this is better suited to GD, since it's not proper news from a reliable source.

[fasttense]

8. Thanks for posting Magic

Sounds like a victory for Greece coming soon

[Bosonic]

10. Why not wait for the actual results, not long now

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/e/public/index.html?lang=en#

[magical thyme]

13. thank you for the link. 14% in and 60% OXI! nt

[Jack Rabbit]

11. OXI!

ό??!

For those of you who are subject to a case of bad nerves, you might want to find something else to do for a few hours and check in later. It's going to be close.

Try doing something comparatively relaxing this afternoon. Like skydiving.

[Baclava]

15. No vote still ahead, 60/40, with 20% counted

live updates

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/05/greeces-eurozone-future-in-the-balance-as-referendum-gets-under-way--eu-euro-bailout-live#block-55996b9be4b00bdd27707dcb



Athenians watching referendum exit poll results in a cafe near Syntagma square

[Yo_Mama]

18. It's not close at all. Very solid "NO".

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-33400127

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/e/public/index.html?lang=en#{%22cls%22:%22main%22,%22params%22:{}}

53% in, 61% say "No"

No matter which option one thought should win, it's good to have a definitive answer one way or another.

[Jack Rabbit]

19. Yes, I am surprised

Pleasantly surprised. The polls I saw last night indicated the Ayes would win in a squeaker.

Yanis Varoufakis says he now expects a quick deal. Nevertheless, one should underestimate the bullheadedness of greedy, crooked bankers, either on Wall Street or in Europe.

[Yo_Mama]

22. I don't think this is about bankers any more - it's about nationalism

The Germans are prepared to recognize a rather large loss now to forestall the possibility of larger losses later from other countries.

They may well have miscalculated. It's not clear that the Italian and Spanish people may not rebel.

As it is I am sure the Germans are going to try to make the results of this rebellion against the financial bailout regimen as grim as possible for Greece, just as they did for Cyprus. They want heads on pikes to scare the other bailout countries into submission.

[libdem4life]

23. Totally. The proud birthplace of thought and intelligence in the Modern World. They would have to

sell off those historical places.

Heads on pikes refers to the Barbarians who came before...and is accurate. Italy and Spain and Portugal, too. Britian never has been too fond of the Euro, and France is wavering some.

Today, I believe the world took a new turn...globalization is flawed...TPP and NAFTA and whatever Obama just signed and all that...when we find out what has been given away, the US might not be too far behind. (See Bernie Sanders)

[Yo_Mama]

26. Yeah, just look at Italy.

Italian Debt to GDP is 132% right now. Obviously this is not going to help matters - when Greek debt is written down, Italy's debt will rise to about 135% or on that order. France's debt to GDP is 95%. It will get to 97% or 98% or so, and the last couple of years government spending has been well over 55% of GDP, so France might be the next big domino to fall.

Spain will get to about 100%, but Spain is in better shape with good GDP growth and government spending well under 50% of GDP. Spain can handle it. If acute German/Greek hostilities result, Spain's economy might get a net benefit from shifting of tourism from Greece to Spain.

Mostly, this is about Italy, which is why Draghi is head of the ECB. Italy can't pay its debt either.

Some of the smaller European countries have a huge amount to lose in this.

But the bottom line is that Germany does not want to throw any more good money after bad, and furthermore if Greece got a restructuring it would be impossible for them to stifle Italian popular demands for one, so that is that.

[libdem4life]

29. Thanks for the stats...didn't know the numbers. But Spain has elected Podemos

an anti-austerity (aka Leftist) party similar to Syriza. Have heard the term Brexit, too...they never like the Euro and fought it hard. Think there is a lot more going on behind the scenes than we know. It's no wonder Germany/EU/ECB/IMF must make everyone toe the line, or suffer mightily.

[Yo_Mama]

31. For once in my life, I wish I were an NSA snooper

The European conversations tonight would be fascinating.

You're absolutely right - there must be a huge amount of negotiation and positioning going on behind the official scene.

[iandhr]

12. Squeaker

[Yo_Mama]

17. K&R for visibility for this useful thread. n/t

[GliderGuider]

20. 62% now reporting, 61.3% NO

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/e/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"main","params":{}}

05-07-2015 22:27
Registered 5.764.786
Reporting 62,02 %
Voted 60,66 %
Invalid/Blank 5,74 %
No 61,33 %
Yes 38,67 %

Looks like a landslide to me. But the aftermath????

[Baclava]

27. Germany: Greeks Have 'Torn Down Last Bridges'

Deputy chancellor Sigmar Gabriel sounds an ominous note as Greeks appeared to have convincingly voted No in their EU referendum

Sigmar Gabriel told the Tagesspiegel newspaper: "With the rejection of the rules of the eurozone ... negotiations about a programme worth billions are barely conceivable."

He said Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza government were "leading the Greek people on a path of bitter abandonment and hopelessness".

Mr Gabriel, who is also Germany's economics minister, said Mr Tsipras had "torn down the last bridges on which Greece and Europe could have moved towards a compromise".

http://news.sky.com/story/1513796/germany-greeks-have-torn-down-last-bridges

------------------