Globe poll: Trump and Sanders see their leads slip, while Clinton and Rubio rise

[brooklynite]

Source: Boston Globe

Both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are seeing challengers push into their New Hampshire primary leads, according to a new poll from The Boston Globe and Suffolk University.

After a disappointing second place finish in the Iowa caucus, Trump maintained his lead over his Republican counterparts with 29 percent support. On his heels is Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 19 percent, a jump from the 10 percent support he had in the last Globe/Suffolk poll in late January.

Rubio’s rise comes at the expense of other candidates, though. Ohio Gov. John Kasich finished third in the poll with 13 percent, followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 10 percent. Sen. Ted Cruz, fresh off a win at the Iowa caucus, comes in fifth place in the poll with single digits, just ahead of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ben Carson.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has pulled to within single digits of Bernie Sanders in the Globe/Suffolk poll. The Vermont senator has the support of 50 percent of the New Hampshire voters sampled, while Clinton comes in with 41 percent.

Read more: http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2016/02/05/globe-poll-trump-and-sanders-see-their-leads-slip-while-clinton-and-rubio-rise/ixLPKK3WxiwBRuWXFtwGBM/story.html?p1=feature_sec_hp

[itsrobert]

1. I don't believe it. All the unscientific online polls have Sanders by 40 points

we shall see.

[Beacool]

2. I think that Sanders will win NH.

But, I think that not by the huge margin that the polls have been showing up to now.

Which is fine. Win some, lose some. What's important is the delegate count as the primaries progress.

[NurseJackie]

10. The fact that he's losing ground in NH (his own back yard with tailor-made ...

... voters that suit his demographics) should be of great concern to his campaign. He'll never be able to survive the primaries ... and if he can't survive the nomination process, then there's no way he'd survive the general election.

His "base" is the typical NH resident ... but that's not what America looks like (or thinks like). Bernie's campaign has a short shelf-life ... the sell-by date is very near.

Go, Hillary!

[riversedge]

14. right.

[safeinOhio]

3. Boston Globe article on how bad polls are.

On Friday, the firm Public Policy Polling released a survey saying that 30 percent of Republican voters nationwide would support bombing “Agrabah,’’ a fictional kingdom featured in the Disney movie “Aladdin.’’

The obsession over polls comes at a time when they may be less accurate, with some notable errors over the past several election cycles. In 2012, Romney’s campaign was confidant in the general election against President Obama based on its own internal polling, but it underestimated turnout for traditionally Democratic constituencies.

Most of the preelection polling in the Kentucky governor’s race last month showed Democrat Jack Conway with a slight lead; Republican Matt Bevin won by 9 points.

One major challenge for pollsters is ensuring they capture the sentiments of voters, particularly younger and poorer ones, who no longer have hard-wired telephone lines and only use cellphones.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/12/25/explosion-polling-early-primary-states-fueling-obsession-with-horse-race-politics/8bIVSb392uRqr9eSIgFsyM/story.html

I say enough with recent polls

[kcjohn1]

4. Haha

"Pulled within single digits"

Their last poll on Jan 22 had Sanders up by 9. Seems like nothing has changed since their last poll.

[Attorney in Texas]

5. The Democratic national and NH polling are moving exactly as you would expect from a tie in Iowa.

In the upcoming states where Sanders has a lead (NH, Vermont), the gap will narrow, and where Clinton has a lead (most states where the campaigns haven't brought into full focus yet - including New Mexico, South Carolina, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, etc.), the gap will narrow.

I like that trade off since Sanders will win NH anyway. On the PredictWise (aggregating various betting market data for candidate futures), they are pretty much giving away Clinton stock in NH.

[magical thyme]

6. Yet CNN/WMUR poll shows Sanders lead increase in NH

(CNN)Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders continues to hold a wide lead over Hillary Clinton among likely New Hampshire primary voters, according to a new CNN/WMUR tracking poll conducted entirely after the Iowa caucuses.

Sanders stands at 61% support, up slightly from the 57% he held in a late January CNN/WMUR poll conducted before he and Clinton divided Iowa caucusgoers almost evenly on Monday night. Clinton holds 30%, down a tick from the 34% she held before the caucuses. Both changes are within the poll's margin of sampling error.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/04/politics/new-hampshire-poll-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton/index.html

[emulatorloo]

8. That same poll predicted a Bernie blow-out in Iowa

I expected a Bernie blow-out in Iowa but it didn't materialize. That being said, Bernie will win NH

[magical thyme]

15. I'd call the 2 polls a wash. 4 other polls put Bernie +15-20

WBUR/MassINC Bernie +15
UMass/7News Bernie +15
ARG +16
NBC/WSJ/Marist +20

[emulatorloo]

16. FWIW 15 to 20pts "feels" more real to me.

Not that my 'feelings' matter ha ha.

[magical thyme]

21. Reuters/Ipsos just confirmed Quinniapac's national poll -- virtual tie...even better

Bernie still lags in name recognition, with 25% of (and 40% of non-Dems) not familiar with him, versus 100% name recognition for Hillary!

[TheBlackAdder]

7. Post-Iowa, Pre-NH Debate, No details on methods. A lottery ticket can get hopes up too. nt

[houston16revival]

9. Voters are in a Throw the Bums Out Mood

They probably lie to pollsters 25% of the time

Establishment candidates are not wowing their parties

If this mood persists, it could be Trump v. Sanders, or Rubio
unless GOP Party Bosses throw away their candidates and
insert Paul Ryan like they did in the House

Democrats in Congress can do fine if incumbents lose big time,
because many Dems are in stronger seats.

[beachbumbob]

11. Looks better each day for Hillary in nh...

If Bernie doesn't win by 20% or more...it's a win for Hillary....

[closeupready]

12. Clinton's supporters here say polls don't matter, so who cares.

[Plucketeer]

13. Hillary can wish in one hand....

[riversedge]

17. Hillary is great at multi-tasking and complex thinking.

[Plucketeer]

18. And other stuff.

Yeah, she's just FULL of talents. Why here comes on right now!

[CoffeeCat]

19. I've heard that about her

In fact, I think there's film of her accepting a Goldman Sachs check while she does the warmonger shuffle with Robert Kagan, the founder of the neocon movement.

Aren't we so blessed as a nation?

[Reter]

20. Hillary supporters are getting desperate

Hillary is fading fast in all of the polls. Bernie is gonna crush her in NH. She has zero chance of winning there, give it a rest.