Tesla's Model 3 sedan gets over 325,000 reservations

[Zorro]

Source: Reuters

Electric car maker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) said on Thursday it had received more than 325,000 orders for its new Model 3 sedan in the first week of bookings.

The reservations, which can be made by paying a refundable deposit of $1,000 (£710.8), correspond to about $14 billion (£9.95 billion) in implied future sales, the company said.

There is, however, no certainty that Tesla would be able to convert all its orders into sales as many of those could be cancelled.

The orders for Model 3, Tesla's first mass-market car which will sell at an average price of $42,000, are "very positive" and reflect tremendous enthusiasm for the car, analysts said.


Read more: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teslas-model-3-sedan-gets-172644332.html

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This is a pretty phenomenal response.

[Melurkyoulongtime]

1. Awesome!

One of the RWers I know spouted off the other day about how Tesla is "going to ruin it for the rest of the automakers". And I thought to myself "Oh, you mean the ones that been given decades to wean themselves off the oil & gas industry teat? They did that to themselves!" I'dve said it out loud but I'm having to temporarily live w this person and it's best just to let go right now, lol.

[Avalon Sparks]

2. Me Want! Me Want!

I want one so bad!

They look so freaking awesome.... I've never wanted a car so bad. I'm a Honda Chick, perfectly content with my Civic - until NOW!!! Damn you Tesla......... naming a car after my favorite scientist too.

If I ever decide to get one I'll wait to they get the kinks out though.... maybe 3 or 4 years.

[truthisfreedom]

3. $325M in down payments.

I think it will work out ok.

[joshcryer]

6. That should pay for a quarter or an eighth of the necessary rampup costs.

But yeah. I expect a few of them will withdraw their downpayments if Musk can't deliver.

[SunSeeker]

4. That is impressive.

[JohnnyRingo]

5. Something doesn't add up

These cars won't be delivered until 2017 to begin with, but I don't see how Tesla can ramp up production to deliver over 300,000 cars even by then. Sure, some of the "Big 3" can meet such sales figures of some of their very best sellers, but only through a global network of dealers which Tesla doesn't have, and by building them in multiple locations, which Tesla also doesn't have.

I don't know if the figure is inflated as I suspect, or if Tesla will have to disappoint many and return payments. Doesn't it seem odd that over 300k people have $1,000 to plunk down on what I consider an average looking sedan that they can't even see for another year? Wouldn't most just wait until they're available to buy? If Tesla actually accepted this money up front from that many people, it may just end up being a sort of interest free loan that they have a year to pay off.

As a humorous aside, Tesla wanted to name the car the Model E to fit the format of their Models S & X. Their line-up would then be the S-E-X, but Ford put a stop to that by claiming they own the designation Model E. Tesla went with Model 3 instead, but uses three horizontal bars for the 3. It's the same three bars in the Tesla logo that they use for an E. Now Tesla is announcing a future Model Y. Think about that.

Admittedly clever.

[Kokonoe]

7. I agree it is impossible.

Tesla would need to hire thousands of employees and build an assembly line.

Mid 2018 would be a more accurate delivery date.

[JohnnyRingo]

8. I don't know about impossible...

...but that's a lot of newly developed cars to build in one model year.

As an example, GM builds the very popular Chevy Cruze near here in Lordstown Ohio. Last year they sold 225,000 units from that one state of the art mega plant working three shifts. Musk has one factory that already builds both the S and X models and appears to be planning on squeezing in another assembly line for the E. That California Super Plant is absolutely huge, but if those presale numbers are real, Tesla will never be able to complete the transactions in one or even two years, yet he's apparently holding their money.

Once again, who throws down a thousand bucks for a car they can't have for a year? I don't know anyone who can or would do that. It's still just a car, and it's hard to believe anyone plans that far ahead on a purchase.

I've learned not to doubt Elan Musk's abilities, but the company isn't currently set up to deliver on this one.

[Kokonoe]

18. Well, I was being generous to Tesla.

they will need to ramp up production, and they know it.
It is simply fraud to take $1,000 dollars and promise a date off more than a year.
I agree with you, but this is a great car, with neoliberal wall street marketing.

[rjsquirrel]

31. They are talking about through 2020 to deliver that many

TEsla never said they'd deliver that many by 2017.

[whatthehey]

9. They will wait.

I waited two years for my first EV - the Leaf. People in other states waited nearly 3. A groundbreaking car will always have a wait list. And looks are a silly reason to buy a car (I think the 3 is quite pleasing to the eye, but taste is always subjective). Nobody (sane) buys a wrench or hammer based on attractiveness. A car is there to function and perform. Interior design whuich affects comfort or ewrgonomics may be worth considering but exterior in aesthetic terms is immaterial good or bad.

[JohnnyRingo]

11. Did you pay anything up front?

When you placed your order did the dealer ask for a thousand bucks for the right to order a Leaf that you'd wait for two years on delivery? I imagine not, but perhaps that's a new way to buy cars. Personally, I don't know anyone who can afford to float a grand on a car they can't see for years to come. I'm not sure I know anyone who knows now what they'll want in two years either.

I even question Tesla's abilty to deliver in two years. GM builds the very popular Chevy Cruze near here in Lordstown Ohio in a state of the art mega plant where they work three continuous shifts to produce about a quarter million units a year. That's a lot of cars and they stretch the limits of production, but Musk apparently plans on outperforming that by a third at his existing plant where X and S models are already built. I hate to doubt Elon Musk on anything he endeavors, but all those deposits may end up being a short term no interest loan to the company if he has to make refunds in two years.

As for the Model E itself, saying it'll sell big because it has mediocre looks isn't much of a selling point to anyone other than those who consider their car no more than a necessary evil (cupholders!). By the company's own account, the real cost with popular options after energy rebates will likely be in the $50k range. Is that really "the people's car" anymore? Most car makers strive to keep their vehicles under $30k because that's the price most working class buyers can swing. A $35k car is considered a luxury conveyance by most Americans.

I'm a car guy, and not only do I buy cars based on how they look, I buy my tools by much the same measure. Snap-On wrenches are the best. There's no way I would own Pontiac Aztec, a Toyota Cube, or a WalMart socket set just because of value. I don't want to limit my driving to nighttime hours when no one will see me.

[whatthehey]

12. Yes. Deposits were necessary.

And again looks are subjective, not at all the main or een notable reason for Tesla's present or future success, and in fact widely praised in the industry and among owners and non-owners alike. Your dislike is a small minority POV, and a really really weird criterion for tools let alone cars. Without getting into armchair psychology I'm genuinely curious about why the appearance of a wrench is important. I'm no expert but I believe Snap-On have a good reputation for quality and function. Would you buy one for looks if they didn't? Why?

I mean I suppose there is a possible glimmer of a reason for caring about car looks if someone is seeking the approval and plaudits of shallow folks for some reason (picking up sexual partners perhaps or impressing fellow fans of whatever look is in vogue), but even if that's the case, tastes really are subjective and I've heard just about every car called ugly by some group of people, so what happens if that group is the one whose approval is being sought? I mean Jesus there are the silly ricer-boys who think 3' high wings on the rear of FWD Hondas with ludicrous bucket-sized fart pipes dragged along behind inevitably dinged up cartoonish plastic body flares that drag going over a quarter lying on the road are the height of sex appeal, and plenty agree with them. But what if the set who one needs to impress are in favor of mirrored chrome wheels the size of those on a Wells Fargo stagecoach surmounted by paper thin tires attached to bright green 90s Impalas with chrome handles and wheel arches? Or ready to swoon only when presented by diesel powered townie trucks which need a 3-step ladder to enter and have more spotlights than Carnegie Hall? Even ignoring the fringes there are plenty who think men only belong in pick ups, soccer moms belong only in bloated SUVs, and only girls drive convertibles? Camaro fans who think Mustangs are ugly or Mustang fans who reverse the equation?

I know most people who make the "I want a car to look good" argument eventually pretend it's about their own personal opinion, and most will grudgingly admit that's subjective, but you've already shut that door by saying you wouldn't want to be seen by others in a car considered ugly. But there are Cube fans and Aztek fans who may find your taste ugly, so is it majority approval you seek? The Tesla would certainly supply that so it can't be that rationally speaking.

Hell I've gone from the Leaf that almost everybody thinks is weird (I kind of like the quirkiness) to the Modrl S almost everybody thinks looks great (I can take it or leave it personally depending on mood) and I just swapped out my convertible from a Mustang generally considered archetypally masculine (it was decent looking in my view if a bit staid) to a Beetle, likewise feminine to most folks (I thinks it's cute enoiugh, but trying a bit too hard to be retro-bubbly). I've relatively recently had a Miata, a 4WD Supercrew, an XK8, an E class, a Roadmaster, a Pacifica, etc etc. And I've not had one that somebody didn't tell me was too feminine, too much of a penis extention, too redneck, too nouveau-riche, too eco-warrior, too planet destroying, too young for me, too old for me, too boring or too ostentatious (pretty easy bonus points for guessing which is which). No-onewill ever make others universally happy or impressed by aedthetic choices as personal as cars so it's just flat out silly to try or care.

[JohnnyRingo]

15. I'll not argue a moot point...

...it's clear you see autos and car design differently than me, but instead I'll explain my own view to be clear.

There are design houses that specialize in creating sculptures that become rolling automobiles. Companies like Pininfarina, Mulliner, and Karman sell their visions for good money to companies that want to produce something that appeals to those who want something distinctive, Something beyond a bubble that suffices to exist as a motoring machine based only on mileage, safety, and Consumer Reports ratings. Even GM still relies on Fisher Body to seek a certain brand "look" that entices buyers. I'd say auto aesthetics are pretty mainstream and competitive, but there are manufacturers that cater to those who don't care. To wit:

A neutral colored KIA is a great example of a car that could dash from any accident and leave no description behind. The KIA was designed in house by engineers who kept an eye to function over form when they built a car that could wear any Asian grille badge without notice. They have no soul or character and there's hardly a reason to personify the car with a name. I suppose Jane Doe, my KIA something or other would do, but the car doesn't snarl or smile. It doesn't have a line one would want to trace with their palm or used to ponder a camera angle. Not to be too harsh, it is a car that was designed by bean counters for people who see a car as merely a necessary evil of monthly expense and conveyance. I get that.

I'll give Tesla some credit for their roof line on this Model E. No one is currently doing that all glass fastback and it adds curb appeal to an otherwise plain visage. I understand Tesla sacrificed all but about a foot of the trunk lid for that distinction so I hope that doesn't cause distress to those who Tesla owners who demand practicality over beauty.

As for preferring good looking tools, if you needed a wrench and I placed an SK socket wrench and a generic one from WalMart side by side, I know which one you'd pick. Only one of them actually looks like it can do the job. I use my tools a lot, and I want that.

I don't drive this because of penis or ego problems, indeed I get more attention from 15 year old boys who like cars than women, and I've owned Triumphs all my adult life. I like it for it's unmistakable design by Kamm and the joy of constant wrenching. Like I said, I'm a car guy. from a different world than yours. That doesn't make you wrong.

[Ready4Change]

30. I get you.

I know the mindset you are from (mine is MG, rather than Triumph, based. Same illness, different strain.)

However, we (you and I) are far from the average consumer. When I get outside my psuedo-gearhead circle of friends, I enter a world where people want a car to take them from A to B with out intruding on their experience. A tuneful exhaust note, nimble suspension, peaky engine are all BAD things.

Now, I know that sounds crazy to us (you and I), but I see it all the time. Car makers advertise how their interior and ride isolate passengers from the outside world, to the point they can't hear the sirens of emergency vehicles. That's what people WANT. Boggles my mind, but it's a fact on the ground that should not be ignored.

However, they are still consumers. And one thing consumers like is something they can show off to other consumers. These early adopters are frothing at the mouth for the weeks or months they and they alone will have the new Tesla in their garage. Oh sure, similarly priced new BMWs may have better performance numbers, may be more convenient for long trips, and may not have the new car design teething problems this new Tesla is likely to have. But these buyers won't care. They'll have shiny road bling, at least for a little while, and that is well worth committing the money they would eventually pay anyway early.

Me, personally, I loved the Tesla Roadster. Monetarily it was not in the cards for that moment in time. I still think lustfully about it though.

[JohnnyRingo]

35. Glad to hear you're an MG guy

It's good to find someone here with the bug.

I have that '71 TR6 right now and work part time through my GM retirement at a place here in NE Ohio called "Team Triumph" where we dismantle Brit sports cars, warehouse the parts, and ship them around the world. I worked shipping at Delphi for years and know my way around British cars, so it's a worthwhile place to spend my waning days:

http://www.teamtriumph.com/

It's a small place with an incredible stockpile of original and rebuilt parts. When someone calls, they talk to Scott himself, one of the most knowledgeable British car specialists in the state. Besides rare OEM parts, Scott discounts Moss Motors by 10%. He's a cancer survivor and one of the nicest and most honest people I know.

And some of the warehouse:



As for a new Tesla, I have not bought a new car in my life, and I don't think I can go with an electric because by the time I can buy one the batteries would be near end of life. As it is, my 2000 Eldorado is long in the tooth, but I'm pretty sure it'll go more than a hundred miles at a time. I'm not so sure a 15 year old Tesla with depleted cells would do that.

[Ready4Change]

36. Nice work if you can find it! :)

Looks like nifty place.

I had an MGB as my first car. It was a pile of rusted junk the whole time I owned it, but I loved every second of it. I then has a series of more practical cars. Then, with my wifes encouragement no less, I bought a new Miata. It's not as light and spritely as I recall the MG being, but compared to other new cars its night and day in the Miata's favor.

I think about getting another old MGB as a project car. But my wife saw some Austin Healey 3000s at a car show and fell in love with them. So I might have to go that route. Darn.

[jberryhill]

27. Yeah I did this when Smart was introduced to the US

Now, granted, there was Daimler Chrysler behind it, but the US production models were about two years off when I put down a deposit.

I believe the deposits were refundable, but a lot of people were just happy to stay in the front of the line for an indefinite time in the future.

[rjsquirrel]

32. If you can't afford to float a grand for a couple of years

Maybe you shouldn't be buying a new car of any sort.

This is a cheap car relatively speaking at around 40k. Anyone who can afford a nice car can afford a grand deposit. And anyone who can't should be buying used.

[PasadenaTrudy]

13. Plenty here in CA

have an extra grand laying around.

[JohnnyRingo]

16. Maybe I'm an idiot to live in Ohio.

I should be an idiot in California where all the money is. I imagine for every thousand bucks lying around there are already 100 people trying to con them out of it though.

Elon Musk is apparently really good at that. hahaha

I kid Elon, and I do concede that the roof line on the Model E is uniquely attractive. No on else is doing the all glass fastback right now and it adds curb appeal to an otherwise mundane design. I'm not sure I'd still want one in a year or two, but I guess it's refundable at no interest or fee.

[jberryhill]

28. The alternative is to wait...

...but with all of the initial production earmarked, then you are still looking at a long wait between order and delivery - a really long wait.

For that reason, there are some who are putting down those deposits for the chance to flip them when they do come out.

With enough pre-orders, you can put it on eBay for more than what you paid - and there will be someone willing to pay for convenience.

[JohnnyRingo]

29. Yeah, good point

If Tesla used dealerships they'd be marking up the prices themselves like Ford dealers did to the 2002 Thunderbird.

[IronLionZion]

17. Most everything Musk has done has been impossible so far

yet he still managed to do it somehow.

I'm still wondering how big oil hasn't killed it yet. It wasn't too long ago that the American auto industry was on its deathbed and needed a bailout.

[daleo]

20. Electric cars are intrinsically much simpler than ICE cars

So, one can't assume the production schedule comparisons are valid.

[JohnnyRingo]

22. I saw a show about the Tesla Super Plant

and I know better than to doubt Musk's resolve to endeavor.

I suspect he plans to meet production quotas with the use of robotic assembly. However, once the line starts spewing out cars at faster than one a minute as he's proposing, quality problems invariably arise, regardless of how they're put together. At least that's been the rule in the past.

As for an electric being more simple, one has to consider that the engine pod arrives at the line fully assembled from another part of the plant (or another factory altogether). It's just plugged in like an electric unit as the car proceeds to final so assembly shouldn't be easier. Everyone is building an electric now, but no one has approached the yearly numbers for this Model E, including Tesla. Musk only plans to build 80,000 Models S and X this year combined.

As an aside, I see money to be made in the aftermarket industry printing fake grilles or faces for the smoothed over front end on the Model E. That ominous blank space just begs for custom personalizing.

[daleo]

23. Well, engine pods don't grow on trees

Even if parts are sourced from different plants, they totality of the car's complexity doesn't change. In fact, that adds to complexity, due to logistics and transportation issues.

And it's not just the engine that's more complex - the transmission, and drive train in general are much simpler with electric cars. Also, no pollution controls needed.

[JohnnyRingo]

25. It's probably not worth arguing about...

...but just because there's an electric power pod it doesn't mean it's faster to build or that quality can be assured at such an accelerated production rate.

You'd perhaps be surprised how many car companies use the completed engines from other manufacturers. Chevy alone uses more Toyota engines than any other company and plug & play is just one advantage. Don't assume that just because an electric has fewer moving parts it's easier to build. These Tesla motors are high tech and labor intensive. I believe Tesla also has to import battery packs.

Then there's the pollution controls. It's not the '80s anymore, and emissions control is engineered into the engine through efficiency. That's why modern engines develop so much power per liter while delivering a high MPG rating. The companies didn't start out making high mileage cars, they worked instead to make engines that burned everything shoved into the cylinder to avoid pollution so making a car clean doesn't add to meaningful production time

I give Musk a lot of credit, and I'm not at all opposed to electric cars. I'd own one myself but I don't buy new cars and I wouldn't want one with diminished battery life. However, I still think this 350k units in a little over a year is not achievable. I don't know if those are real figures or a ploy to advance the stock price ahead of development, but that sounds like an unusually high presale figure. As I said, GM sells about 250k Chevy Cruises a year working a modern plant three shifts a day seven days a week. Musk wants to up that by 30% with no compromise to quality.

I think a lot of people will be getting a refund before 2017.

[daleo]

24. Here's an after market idea

During the interval while charging stations are still relatively uncommon, but EVs are becoming common, an enterprising person could make money providing a rolling recharge service for people who run out of juice on the road. A truck with a generator and some specialized electronics would do the trick, I imagine.

[JohnnyRingo]

26. Actually, I think that'll be a must in the near future

What would someone do if they pushed their luck, as people tend to do, and deplete the battery in the middle of BFE? I guess one could tow the car home and put it on the charger, but what if that's too far?

A SuperCharger on a truck that could get the car going in 15 minutes would be a life saver, especially in winter. From there a driver may have 50 good miles to get where they're going.

[dembotoz]

10. sort of like the list for packer season tickets

when my first grandkid was born my son put him on the season ticket waiting list.
i know i will not live long enuf to see it.

thought it would be kinda cool to add my name to the tesla list but alas a thousand bucks is too much for kinda cool

[Native]

14. How has the resale value on these cars been?

everything i'm reading is saying that resale on all electric cars is typically as poor as it gets because as soon as one mfg comes out with a ground breaking range, the next year's model or another mfg's new car, will have significantly more range.

[Zorro]

19. Resale value on the Model S has been pretty strong

There's really no other competition with comparable range.

[IamMab]

21. Saturn 2.0 nt

[rjsquirrel]

33. No way

I owned a Saturn. Worst car I've ever driven. Utter crap. No I didn't buy it, I'm not dumb. I got it for free and it took two years to kill it.

Teslas are being ranked as some of the best cars ever made for performance, safety, and style.


It's not even a close comparison. One is a car. A really good car. The other is GM playing a joke on Americans.

[IamMab]

34. I have a friend who put a down payment on one of the Model 3s. I just hope Tesla still exists to

deliver it someday.

[Throd]

37. My Saturn still runs great. Maybe it was the owner.

[rjsquirrel]

38. That was the weird thing about Saturns

They would keep "running" despite being terrible cars to drive and falling apart cosmetically. I had to try hard to kill mine dead. I suppose that is a good thing in some universe. But I hated its ungainly, underpowered plastic soul.

[Throd]

39. I'll have to agree with you there.

The car runs great but looks like a complete beater. All the trim around the windows has fallen off and the ass fell out of the driver's seat so I had to cram a pillow in there. I want to get a new car but this one refuses to die. First world problems...