New Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Clinton ahead in Pennsylvania

[molova]

Source: Morning Call

emocrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters as Republican Donald Trump continues to struggle among groups key to winning the state, according to a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released Saturday.

The survey, conducted Sept. 12-16, shows Clinton leading the presidential race here with support from 47 percent of likely voters who say they intend to vote for her or are leaning that way. Trump is at 38 percent, while 11 percent say they'd pick neither of the major-party choices, and 4 percent are not sure.

Clinton's lead narrows slightly to 8 percent when third-party candidates are included, with 40 percent for her, 32 percent for Trump, 14 percent for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and 5 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

Read more: http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-trump-clinton-poll-20160917-story.html

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It is good news that this poll was conducted entirely after the pneumonia incident.
For context, Obama won PA against Romney by 5.4%.

Hillary is in a very, very good position to become President.

[Grown2Hate]

1. Right. She wins PA, VA, and CO (all solid) and she SQUEAKS in. Any other state (OH, FL, IA, NV)

would all just be gravy at that point. I don't start panicking until I see one of those three going to Trump consistently. I'd LOVE a landslide, but I'll take Hillary in a squeaker as well. As long as we defeat Mussolini 2.0.

[vadermike]

2. Cookin!

VA looks solid I know there was that crappy landline only CO poll that had trump up right after the Pnemijia scare But I suspect she's up there too out of the others NC we might get before OH which is a nice change As Romney won NC last time If I remember correctly higher number of college educated in NC as opposed to OH based in demographics and AA? GOTV !!

[dsc]

8. The reversal of relative fortunes in NC and Ohio are quite striking

In 2012, in NC we lost the governorship, the Lt Governorship, lost the general assembly by veto proof margins and Obama lost. In Ohio, Brown won reelection handedly and Obama carried the state handedly. This year, in NC we are close to certain to win the governorship, could win the lt governorship and knock the gop out of the council of state, Clinton is a better than even shot at winning the state, and Burr is scared enough that the national GOP is spending a kings ransom to save his seat. In short, we could win every statewide race here including the Supreme court. Ohio is looking to be quite the mess sadly.

[vadermike]

12. Cool

U think the three are going to be interrelated Pres , GOV and LT Gov in NC motivating Dems to sweep all three cause of mCrory , Trump and general GOP unpopularity at the state level as well ? Lookin good !

[yellowcanine]

14. I still think Hillary will win Ohio. Kasich's opposition will hold down the Trump vote.

Kasich is not going to endorse Trump, imo. The latest round form Priebus pretty much assures that. It is personal now for Kasich. Big strategic mistake on the part of Priebus.

[vadermike]

3. NV

I think she will get.. We are hard to poll here Hispanics will vote in large numbers against Cheeto

[book_worm]

4. Excellent! This is right after her alleged health scare, too.

[democrattotheend]

5. That is very comforting

This poll was taken entirely after the 9/11 incident. 8 points is a bigger lead than Obama won PA by in 2012. If she wins by 8 in PA she will win comfortably nationwide.

[onehandle]

6. Just one of many states that Trump cannot win without. We have her back here. nt

[Charles Bukowski]

7. Trump's "surge" has been overstated.

It was really more a temporary decline in Clinton's support by less die-hard voters. They weren't really switching to Trump though.

Also, Trump's disastrous Friday will undoubtedly bolster her in the polls. If HRC enters the debates with the momentum, all the better. Then... she'll crush him.

[bucolic_frolic]

9. As I recall

that is usually a rightward leaning poll, so this really is goooooooooooood news

[LenaBaby61]

10. New Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Clinton ahead in Pennsylvania.

The MOE @ 5.5 is a bit large, but just scanning the methodology of the poll and seeing that it has a broader cross-section of people they polled, just off the top it seems like a solid poll.

[Liberal_in_LA]

11. Excellent

[DeminPennswoods]

13. 47% Dems

M Call has been doing this poll for awhile. Keystone/Pennsylvania Poll is the gold standard here, but Muhlenberg is a solid poll.

This poll does look like it might have over-sampled Dems, but it's a little hard to tell since many people in western Pennsylvania are still registered Dems (DINOs). The LV screen is simply "definitely/very likely" to vote. So perhaps it shows the "enthusiasm" gap shifting.