Trump's growth projections leave economists in disbelief

[DonViejo]

Source: The Hill

By Peter Schroeder - 10/23/16 05:47 PM EDT

Economists are dubious of Donald Trump’s claim that he could more than triple economic growth if elected president.

Trump has repeatedly blasted the gross domestic product (GDP) numbers under President Obama as pathetically low, promising he would change the trajectory by building a “tremendous economic machine.” He reiterated those claims during the third presidential debate Wednesday, after the government reported the economy grew 1.4 percent in the second quarter of the year. “We’re bringing GDP from, really, 1 percent … and if she got in, it will be less than zero,” he said. “But we’re bringing it from 1 percent up to 4 percent. And I actually think we can go higher than 4 percent. I think you can go to 5 percent or 6 percent,” Trump said.

Such claims are not mere rhetoric from Trump, as many of his economic proposals, including his broad tax cuts, depend on robust growth to cover the costs. Without it, his plans would add trillions of dollars to the deficit and likely damage the economy. Trump’s bold claims are eliciting scoffs from economists, who argue that such numbers are difficult if not outright impossible to meet.

“His growth expectations are not realistic. The economy's potential growth is 2 percent, and to get stronger growth will require immigration reform that provides a path to legalization for the undocumented and a significant increase in skilled legal immigration. He is strongly opposed to this,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Even then, (immigration reform) will increase potential growth to closer to 2.5 percent. We may be surprised and get stronger growth, but it wouldn't be prudent to count on it.”

-snip-

Read more: http://thehill.com/policy/finance/302271-trumps-growth-projections-leave-economists-in-disbelief

[moonscape]

1. Silly economists. Trump will decree it. So shall it be. n/t

[forest444]

2. Sounds like Bush's "ownership society."

SHortly after which the median household lost 40% of net worth, 9 million jobs disappeared, and the economy collapsed (by 5% officially - but that's assuming 1% inflation, and it was a LOT more than that in the Bush regime).

You gotta hand it to Republicans: their projections are very reliable - they're always diametrically opposed to the actual results.

[TexasBushwhacker]

3. Better to have slow, sustainable growth

than boom and bust. While I certainly believe we need immigration reform, I'm not keen on importing many thousands more skilled workers. There's not much incentive for our young people to get education/training in critically needed areas if they know they will have to compete with imported workers who will do anything to get here. I think it's unfair competition for older workers as well. Why keep an older worker with years of experience, who's kept their skill set up to date, if you can import 2 workers for the same price?

[forest444]

4. Well said.

Immigration and H1b visas are like everything else: one can have too much of a good thing, and people can be turned against an otherwise good idea as a result - hence, the Trumps, Macris, and Le Pens of the world.

[Roy Rolling]

5. "Trump's America"

"When I'm president, 2 plus 2 will equal FIVE. it will be a hugely great. No longer will America be shortchanged by a rigged number system.

Just look at these growth projections...."

---Imaginary Donald talking to imaginary accountants who check his numbers before he spouts off

[PSPS]

6. It surprises me that the media still treats what Trump says seriously.

[keithbvadu2]

7. A businessman who lost almost a billion dollars in one year is going to do such fantastic things

A businessman who lost almost a billion dollars in one year is going to do such fantastic things with our economy?

Bush had a MBA and ruined our economy in 2008.

Even he never lost a billion dollars of his own.

[Stonepounder]

8. I'm not a stupid person. I read a lot, am college educated, etc.

So, someone explain to me why we need "...a significant increase in skilled legal immigration". We got all kinds of skilled folk getting laid off and being replaced with H1B people. We've got college educated kids living in their parents basements (sorry Bern), working way below their pay grade and trying to pay off student loans. My DIL has a Masters and has a GOOD job, but figures she will get her student loans paid off just about the time she retires.

But to grow the economy we need to import skilled labor? WTF?

[Pakid]

9. After Trump destroys the news media

whoever is left will be more than happy to report what our Fuhrer tells them to report. Grow will be whatever he says it is no questions will be asked or allowed.

[gordianot]

10. It must be lonely in the bunker.