Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

TomCADem

(17,378 posts)
Fri Oct 28, 2016, 12:16 PM Oct 2016

Clinton lead shrinks, even as nearly 6 in 10 expect her to win, Post-ABC tracking poll finds

Source: Washington Post

Donald Trump has gained on Hillary Clinton during the past week, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll, solidifying support among core Republican groups as well as political independents.

Roughly 6 in 10 still expect Clinton to prevail, while the poll finds shrinking concerns about the accuracy of the vote count and voter fraud in the election.

Clinton holds a slight 48-44 percent edge over Trump among likely voters, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 4 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 1 percent in the survey completed Sunday through Wednesday. Clinton held a six-point edge in the previous wave and a 12-point edge in the first wave of the tracking poll by ABC News Sunday (50 percent Clinton vs. 38 percent Trump). In a two-candidate contest, Clinton holds a five-point edge over Trump, 50 to 45 percent.

Trump’s growth in support from 38 percent to 44 percent is fueled by shored-up support among Republican-leaning voting groups as well as a significant boost among political independents. Trump has made up ground among whites, particularly those without college degrees and women. Trump now leads by a 30 percentage point margin among white voters without college degrees, up from 20 points from this weekend. White women now tilt toward Trump by 48 to 43 percent after leaning 49 to 43 percent in Clinton’s favor before.



Read more: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/28/clinton-lead-shrinks-even-as-nearly-6-in-10-expect-her-to-win-post-abc-tracking-poll-finds/?client=safari



The MSM had returned once again to giving Trump 24/7 coverage. Turn on CNN and what will be the subject? Trump. Also, no mention of taxes, environment, or actual policies.
21 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Clinton lead shrinks, even as nearly 6 in 10 expect her to win, Post-ABC tracking poll finds (Original Post) TomCADem Oct 2016 OP
Does this include people that may have been among the 17 million who have already voted? George II Oct 2016 #1
ugh -- just ugh Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #2
Please stop flooding DU with your "concern" posts Democat Oct 2016 #19
And The Bundy Group was acquitted in Oregon? busterbrown Oct 2016 #3
the 2012 Obama campaign had particular disdain for this poll, just sayin' ... nt geek tragedy Oct 2016 #4
Looks like the media need to squeeze Helen Borg Oct 2016 #5
Nate Silver addressed this yesterday Algernon Moncrieff Oct 2016 #14
That was yesterday. Helen Borg Oct 2016 #15
Disturbing vadermike Oct 2016 #6
The media is spinning a tightening race narrative Algernon Moncrieff Oct 2016 #16
The Gadsden tea-baggers have been emboldened Saviolo Oct 2016 #7
F**K the Washington Post. Just GOTV and we will win. If every Democrat, Woman, still_one Oct 2016 #8
That's is why I hate when polls start us out with Proud liberal 80 Oct 2016 #9
The Tracking format killed Gallup's reputation molova Oct 2016 #10
Being continually wrong killed Gallup's reputation Algernon Moncrieff Oct 2016 #17
Polls always converge as election day approches... getagrip_already Oct 2016 #11
Do you only post 'bad news for Hillary' polls? Kingofalldems Oct 2016 #12
Do Not Risk Complacency TomCADem Oct 2016 #21
Normally, I'd find this disturbing, but I think their + 12 was an outlier Algernon Moncrieff Oct 2016 #13
Trump lovers won't like this poll: Kingofalldems Oct 2016 #18
Who could have predicted THIS shift in the narrative? 6000eliot Oct 2016 #20

vadermike

(1,415 posts)
6. Disturbing
Fri Oct 28, 2016, 12:28 PM
Oct 2016

He gained a lot hope it's not a trend State polls look good but they are lagging I hope this is wrong otherwise I don't know what to say

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,780 posts)
16. The media is spinning a tightening race narrative
Fri Oct 28, 2016, 12:58 PM
Oct 2016

Nate Silver explained yesterday that polls are all over the road, and that's normal. He also explained that Trump's chances can't be completely discounted mostly because there is a chance that all of the pollsters have utilized a methodology that is somehow fundamentally flawed. And he also explained that the media wants a tightening poll narrative.

See this post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512549665

Saviolo

(3,270 posts)
7. The Gadsden tea-baggers have been emboldened
Fri Oct 28, 2016, 12:31 PM
Oct 2016

By the Bundy decision in Oregon.

They're looking at that and seeing a world full of possibility for angry armed white guys, so now they're figuring maybe they should go out and vote Trump. Trump gets a few more news cycles, the GOP gets some fundraising, and the media gets something closer to the horse race they so deeply desire.

Meanwhile anyone rational holds their heads and pops aspirin like they're candy.

Expect to see more of this:



Time to get out there and redouble the efforts to GOTV for Democratic voters. I'm terrified that there are people leaning back now and saying "Nah, Hillary's got this! No way can she lose!" instead of digging in on those last-minute voters.

still_one

(91,967 posts)
8. F**K the Washington Post. Just GOTV and we will win. If every Democrat, Woman,
Fri Oct 28, 2016, 12:34 PM
Oct 2016

and Person of Color who can vote, votes, we WILL WIN

Proud liberal 80

(4,167 posts)
9. That's is why I hate when polls start us out with
Fri Oct 28, 2016, 12:38 PM
Oct 2016

A huge lead. With the divided electorate a 12 point lead was never true. Where it is now has probably always been the truth

 

molova

(543 posts)
10. The Tracking format killed Gallup's reputation
Fri Oct 28, 2016, 12:38 PM
Oct 2016

It will kill the polling reputation of ABC/WaPo as well.

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,780 posts)
17. Being continually wrong killed Gallup's reputation
Fri Oct 28, 2016, 01:01 PM
Oct 2016

They never adjusted to the age of wireless phones, and under sampled key demographics for 3 election cycles.

getagrip_already

(14,255 posts)
11. Polls always converge as election day approches...
Fri Oct 28, 2016, 12:41 PM
Oct 2016

They don't want to be outside the pack at the end, since pollsters will be graded on the final weeks of predictions. So they make subtle changes to move towards the pack. They don't care about being right, they care about not being an outlier.

They make a lot of money running polls. And they don't want a junk poll rating.

Relax, it happens every cycle.

Kingofalldems

(38,361 posts)
12. Do you only post 'bad news for Hillary' polls?
Fri Oct 28, 2016, 12:52 PM
Oct 2016

Another still on the front page of LBN:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141609031

Perhaps you could combine all of them into one thread.

TomCADem

(17,378 posts)
21. Do Not Risk Complacency
Fri Oct 28, 2016, 01:35 PM
Oct 2016

...and I would rather risk running up the score, rather than doing victory laps only to find that the election is unnecessarily close due to voter suppression and complacency.

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,780 posts)
13. Normally, I'd find this disturbing, but I think their + 12 was an outlier
Fri Oct 28, 2016, 12:52 PM
Oct 2016

+4-6 is kind of the national number I've seen elsewhere.

Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»Clinton lead shrinks, eve...