TargetSmart/William & Mary Release Florida Poll of Early and Likely Voters
Source: TargetSmart/William & Mary
CONTACT: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
11/1/16
Coleman Bass TargetSmart Communications, LLC (443) 676-1803 Press@TargetSmart.com
TargetSmart/William & Mary Release Florida Poll of Early and Likely Voters
-Clinton Buoyed by Early Vote-
Hillary Clintons strength with the early vote in Florida is propelling her to a lead in the key battleground state, according to a new poll released today by TargetSmart and William & Mary. In the poll, Clinton holds a 48 to 40 percent lead over Donald Trump in the Sunshine State, a more advantageous position for Clinton than most other publicly available polling has suggested in the last week or so. As of the morning of November 1st , 2016, TargetSmart tracks that 3,695,359 people have already cast their votes in Florida.
Leveraging TargetSmarts proprietary voter file - that is updated daily through the early voting window - this poll reached a significant number of voters who have already participated. Among those early voters (who were asked which candidate they had voted for), Clinton outpaces Trump by a 17-point margin, 55 to 38 percent. Reflective of the trends that have been published in other public polls in recent days, the TargetSmart/William & Mary poll shows the contest in Florida is very competitive among those who have yet to cast their ballot. Among those non-early voters (who were asked which candidate they will vote for), Clinton attracts 42 percent of the vote and 43 percent back Donald Trump. The poll also shows the U.S. Senate race tilting decidedly in Marco Rubios direction as Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy trails Rubio 43 to 49 percent. Unlike Clinton, Murphy only breaks even with early voters, having garnered 48 percent of the vote among them to Rubios 47 percent. And, among non-early voters, Rubio holds a solid lead with 51 percent of the vote to Murphys 39 percent.
Poll Methodology
The TargetSmart/William & Mary Poll was conducted using a blended web/phone data collection approach. As weighted, 530 online interviews were conducted from October 25-28, 2016 among panelists from six leading online opt-in panel providers who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file. As weighted, 188 telephone interviews were conducted from October 27-30, 2016 to supplement the online sample, with telephone numbers for targeted populations being selected at random from the TargetSmart voter file. The survey reached 311 respondents who voted early in the 2016 general election, either absentee, by mail, or in-person, according to data from the Florida Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file. These early vote data were weighted to reflect population parameters on TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, party registration and media market of the overall population of early voters in Florida who had participated as of October 31. The survey reached 407 respondents who had NOT voted early in the 2016 general election, either absentee, by mail, or in-person, according to data from the Florida Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file. These non-early vote data were weighted using a two-step process to yield a likely voter model. First, the non-early vote sample was weighted to reflect population parameters on TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, party registration and media market of the overall population of all registered voters in Florida who had NOT participated as of October 31. Then, to derive a likely voter model, a second round of weighting was employed on the non-early vote sample only, in which weights were assigned to each respondent in proportion to their TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout score, with higher weights being assigned to respondents with a higher likelihood to vote, and lower weights being assigned to respondents with a lower likelihood to vote. The TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout model is an ensemble method classifier model that was created to predict the likelihood that an individual will vote in the 2016 general election. In this second round of weighting all early voter respondents were assigned a weight of 1, to reflect the fact that they have already voted. No margins of sampling error are calculated for this survey, as this statistic is only applicable to fully randomly sampled surveys, which this survey is not due to its partial reliance on online interviews.
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About TargetSmart:
TargetSmart is the leading provider of political data that enables campaigns and organizations to successfully communicate with large audiences, and personalize outreach. Our superior politically-focused, consultative approach combines consumer data, databases, data integration and consulting solutions for personalized multichannel marketing strategies. TargetSmart leverages over 25 years of experience in data management to deliver high-performance, reliable data products and solutions.
About William & Mary:
William & Mary is a public university located in Williamsburg, Virginia. Founded by Royal Charter in 1693, it is the second oldest institution of higher education in the United States. U.S. News and World Report ranks William & Mary sixth among all public universities in the country.
Read more: https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters
Gothmog
(145,063 posts)jaysunb
(11,856 posts)Proud liberal 80
(4,167 posts)Rose Siding
(32,623 posts)I'm too little for this.
SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)Chicago1980
(1,968 posts)He now has a fellow on from Moody's Analytics who's projecting a big win for Clinton.
peggysue2
(10,828 posts)Survey and prediction by TargetSmart on Lawrence O's show. Stunning figure of a 28% crossover by registered Republicans. Republicans, one could assume the NEVERTRUMP Republicans, are voting for Hillary Clinton at the top, splitting their ticket for Rubio down ballot. That's a stunning crossover percentage.
If it holds, Trump is toast.
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)newbee DUers who have already begun the wake for HRC>
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)Go Florida!
Too bad about Rubio's surge; still this is great news! !
drm604
(16,230 posts)I just wish that Rubio wasn't doing so well.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)This suggests the worse is over and Hillary has made a huge rebound. Plus the fact Dumpster cant win without FL.
adigal
(7,581 posts)They used to collect the online data. It seems pretty sophisticated.
Please, let it be true! !!!!!
Wounded Bear
(58,626 posts)The guy on Lawrence O'Donnell was talking about phone conversations with actual voters. This was real polling, I think.
Divine Discontent
(21,056 posts)Florida Presidential Poll - 530 Online interviews & 188 phone interviews to get the result of 48-40, Clinton +8
But, as for their Early Voting Poll - 311 people were polled after voting, and 55-38, Clinton +17
Online would favor Democrats, but, it's a solid lead, and above the margin of error. As for the Early Voters, +17 is excellent and bodes for a lead for Clinton leading into election day, when more (43-42 Trump +1) are expected to vote.
madaboutharry
(40,201 posts)They called people who cast early votes.
mahina
(17,638 posts)They already have their ethnicity, age, etc. Pretty bulletproof sounding but I'm no statistician.
ProudProgressiveNow
(6,129 posts)yellowcanine
(35,698 posts)Maybe not as many Republicans crossing over in a place like Texas but even if it is only 15-20% it could mean Hillary takes Texas also.
Wounded Bear
(58,626 posts)one of the points that was made was that Cubans came out in record numbers. In the past, Cuban voters were largely Repub. This might indicate a mass movement of Cubans (and other Hispanics, of course) away from the Repub party and to Clinton.
That shouldn't surprise anyone (except maybe Trump) that has been paying attention. Trump offers a lot of hardline traditional bullshit immigration policies based on strong arm tactics and mass deportations. Clinton is offering comprehensive reform with a path to legalization and possible citizenship. On that basis alone, Hispanics should be dumping Trump.
yellowcanine
(35,698 posts)One would expect an energized Hispanic vote to be more decisive in places like NC, AZ, NV, and TX than Florida because a good part of the Florida vote is Cuban - though Cubans are not as Republican as they once were and the Puerto Rican vote has expanded significantly as well there. And of course if many of the Republican Cubans are never Trumpers all bets are off.
Wounded Bear
(58,626 posts)also, I have a sneaky suspicion that a lot of the Hispanic vote may not be showing up in polling. Plus, I think there is that thing where a lot of women and laying low about their vote because of their husband/SO, but when in private will cast their vote for Hillary. I have to wonder about the 28% crossover vote, if they are not mostly women.
yellowcanine
(35,698 posts)But I don't think that can possibly explain all of this. I think Republican men are crossing over also.
Wounded Bear
(58,626 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Average them and you get Clinton +1 which seems right
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Divine Discontent
(21,056 posts)Florida Presidential Poll - 530 Online interviews & 188 phone interviews to get the result of 48-40, Clinton +8
But, as for their Early Voting Poll - 311 people were polled after voting, resulting in 55-38, Clinton +17
Online would favor Democrats, but, it's a solid lead, and above the margin of error. As for the Early Voters, I wish they did 500 interviews, but +17 is excellent and bodes for a solid (hopefully insurmountable) lead for Clinton leading into election day, when more (43-42 Trump +1) are expected to vote, just slightly, for Donnie.
Ellipsis
(9,124 posts)mahina
(17,638 posts)I wasn't even aware of how much tension I was holding.
Fahrenthold451
(436 posts)This poll is pretty much as good as an actual result. TargetSmart did a fricking GREAT job on the analytics here. Huge uptick in Latino voters and the Cuban regulars are not feeling the Trump.
4,000,000 votes already cast.
BluegrassDem
(1,693 posts)if they'd win Florida or not. I guess this is what he was talking about. I can't remember who the guy was, but I remember seeing him on one of the roundtables.
ffr
(22,668 posts)Source: MSNBC
Exclusive: Stunning Clinton number in FL
In a Last Word exclusive, TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier shares with Lawrence the results of a new Florida Early and Likely Voter survey, which show Clinton winning a staggering 28% of Republican early voters.
Read more: http://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/exclusive-stunning-clinton-number-in-fl-798824003656
mahina
(17,638 posts)For me anyway.
Thanks very much for the other information!
riversedge
(70,182 posts)Vinca
(50,255 posts)If Trump doesn't win Florida, he doesn't win the race.
DeminPennswoods
(15,273 posts)It seems that they'd be the ones crossing over and voting for Hillary. The poll also has Rubio with a big lead over Murphy. That fact likely means there's a good bit of ticket splitting going on with Rubio's fellow Cubans rejecting Trump, but still supporting Rubio.