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uawchild

(2,208 posts)
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 08:09 AM Nov 2016

China, Russia take step closer to new long-haul jet

Source: Reuters

China and Russia took a step closer on Wednesday to the joint development of a long-haul jet to challenge Boeing (BA.N) and Airbus (AIR.PA), displaying a model of the unnamed plane that would compete with Western rivals.

State-owned planemakers Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) [CMAFC.UL] and United Aircraft Corp (UAC) of Russia said they had started the hunt to find suppliers, as they presented a mock-up of the wide-body jet at Airshow China. Neither firm gave details on financing or technical specifications for what Western analysts call a politically-driven initiative that will be difficult to pull off and is likely to carry a high price tag.

China opened the show on Tuesday in the southern city of Zhuhai with a brief flypast of its J-20 stealth fighter, in a demonstration of military clout.

Both countries are currently developing smaller narrow-body jets to compete with the best-selling Airbus and Boeing types.


Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-airshow-china-russia-widebody-idUSKBN12X1CO



Interesting. Perhaps pushing China and Russia together isn't really that great of a strategic geo-politics plan?

Aren't we suppose to cosy up to one or the other of them in the old divide and conquer game? Pardon my cynicism.

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dembotoz

(16,807 posts)
1. elsewhere on this page is a report that putin wants to get rid of microsoft in russia
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 09:34 AM
Nov 2016

it would seem if you desired to show your countries superiority it would make sense to have their own
products in very visible places....such as when they see a plane or turn on a computer.

wonder who has the lead...china or russia

if europe could pull off airbus do not see a reason why china could not.
they do have huge countries that would provide a captive audience for the aircraft.
china is very active in africa while the rest of us still can not find it on a map.....

if i was boeing i would be concerned

uawchild

(2,208 posts)
3. It's an interesting long term issue...
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 09:48 AM
Nov 2016

Between them, Russia and China posses a technology and manufacturing base equivalent to the US-Canada and Eurozone ones.

Russia is like a nuclear armed Canada on steroids, resource rich with a technology base, and China now has a "middle class" of about 400 million people, more than the entire population of the US.

Whether a close working relationship would happen is uncertain, Russia certainly desires it, but China is fairly standoffish.

Blue_Tires

(55,445 posts)
2. LOL because Russia and China have already been dominating
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 09:40 AM
Nov 2016

the passenger airplane market all this time... Where the hell has your ass been? One does not simply jump into the widebody market with new, untested products...

This is a move of desperation, in case you haven't noticed -- It's more telling that Russia/China don't have the resources or will to build a proper widebody themselves, and are hoping going halfsies on vaporware will defray costs and get them some positive ink...

uawchild

(2,208 posts)
4. Nothing is permanent except change...
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 09:54 AM
Nov 2016

I forget who said that, but it's certainly true. lol

Look where China was in the 1990's and where they are today. Imagine where they will be in another 20 years. With Russia acting as a junior partner exporting natural resources to them, as Canada does to the US, China might very well be economically and militarily stronger than the US in that time.

The British thought they would remain on top too, but the wheel of fortune never stops and even the strongest powers get surpassed.

"The Wheel of Fortune, or Rota Fortunae, is a concept in medieval and ancient philosophy referring to the capricious nature of Fate. The wheel belongs to the goddess Fortuna, who spins it at random, changing the positions of those on the wheel - some suffer great misfortune, others gain windfalls. Fortune appears on all paintings as a woman, sometimes blindfolded, "puppeteering" a wheel."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rota_Fortunae

Blue_Tires

(55,445 posts)
5. Okay...
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 01:12 PM
Nov 2016

China's so big and bad and on the cusp of global dominance, yet they still can't make a widebody airliner in-house?

They'd be better off funneling the cash to Brazil, who at least has a credible manufacturer in Embraer

uawchild

(2,208 posts)
8. "China's so big and bad and on the cusp of global dominance..."
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 02:22 PM
Nov 2016

Yeah, they just might be.

Lets look at what the Harvard Business Review shows on the rate of their economic rise, which ultimately is the basis for military power too.


"Since the country opened its doors in 1978, the economy has witnessed tremendous growth. Its gross domestic product has surged from less than $150 billion in 1978 to $8,227 billion in 2012 (see “China’s GDP” chart below). In the process, more than 600 million people have escaped poverty. This is a marvelous achievement for any country, let alone one as geographically large and populous as China."

Wow, that's an awfully impressive trend, eh?

And as for your statement "China's so big and bad and on the cusp of global dominance, yet they still can't make a widebody airliner in-house?", China is in the process of focusing on technological innovation as a pathway to continued growth.

The Harvard Business Review discusses that:
"China, too, needs more technological innovation. China has almost tripled the share of its GDP devoted to R&D over the past 20 years, from 0.65% in 1993 to 1.97% in 2012 (See the “R&D Expenditure in China” chart below.) although it still remains below that of the US. This is attributable to China’s national technology strategy of “market access in exchange for technology.” The strategy stems from China’s desire to acquire new technology through technology transfer or foreign direct investment, and assimilate it through learning, imitation and other means. The ultimate goal is the ability to innovate independently. Chinese firms have realized that they cannot just purchase core technologies; they must create them on their own.'

So, yeah, I think China, perhaps with Russian technology transfer, would be capable of making wide body aircraft relatively shortly. Certainly within the 20 years I mentioned earlier.

Like it or not, China is a rising power. Better get use to it.

Blue_Tires

(55,445 posts)
10. Cool... Fine...
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 03:32 PM
Nov 2016

Just wake me when they build a widebody in-house...

Nobody's disputing their economic muscle, but China's aerospace is still a couple of generations behind...

uawchild

(2,208 posts)
14. Time Frame....
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 04:01 PM
Nov 2016

I don't think a joint Russian-Chinese wide body airliner project can be rolled out in a year, but then who could do that?

Wasn't design on the Airbus 380 begun in ~1990-1995 (that counts a preliminary design period) and its first flight in 2005? A decade or so to first flight once design actually gets underway just does not seem insurmountable for a Russia-Chinese project.

Development cycles for complex projects usually measure in the decade range or longer.

Is there something I am missing?

As for why China hasn't done such development yet, well, as the chart from the Harvard Business Review showed, they were busy doing other things -- like performing an economic miracle.

So, yeah, I'll call ya in a decade or so when the normal development cycle should be completed. 10 years isn't long on the timescale countries or corporations operate on.

Thanks for the discussion.

jmowreader

(50,559 posts)
9. The Russians have the capability to make good widebody jets
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 03:16 PM
Nov 2016

Ilyushin, Tupolev, Antonov and Sukhoi all make good planes. Ilyushin made two widebody jets (Il-86 and Il-96) that were good airframes with mediocre engines. Tupolev makes a plane as good as a 757.

Russian airliners have a huge advantage over Western ones: they have to operate from Russian airports, which are mostly terrible. There are a lot of shitty airports in the US, so a good plane with western engines and avionics could be very appealing.

Blue_Tires

(55,445 posts)
11. I'm not doubting Russia's aerospace capabilities...
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 03:38 PM
Nov 2016

Even though they have struggled to find their place in the post-USSR world...

I also don't know where in the market a Russian airframe with western engines would fit... Is that going to be an attractive buy over the A320? 737? ERJs? CRJs?

Response to Blue_Tires (Reply #11)

jmowreader

(50,559 posts)
13. Depends on price and capability
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 03:54 PM
Nov 2016

The Il-86 is 777-sized but can work out of 737-sized facilities. That would appeal to someone.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
6. Until either country figures out how to build reliable and efficient jet engines.
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 02:04 PM
Nov 2016

I somehow doubt Boeing and Airbus are that concerned.

uawchild

(2,208 posts)
7. Russia is really good at jet and rocket engines
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 02:14 PM
Nov 2016

Russia sells rocket engines to the US and jet engines to the Chinese already.

"Why Does the U.S. Use Russian Rockets to Launch Its Satellites?
Sixteen years ago, amid a post-Cold War glow, U.S. defense contractors began using a cheap and efficient Russian engine to launch American military rockets into space."
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/why-does-u-s-use-russian-rockets-launch-its-satellites-n588526


Also, Russian jet engine technology is already world class and comparable to that of the US:

"Top Gun: The 10 most powerful fighter jet engines
American aero-engine manufacturers Pratt & Whitney and GE Aviation produce six of the world’s ten most powerful fighter jet engines while the rest are all Russian made. Airforce-technology.com profiles the ten most powerful fighter jet engines in operation based on thrust rating."
http://www.airforce-technology.com/features/featurethe-10-most-powerful-fighter-jet-engines-4581588/

Don't let the political system or general economy of Russia distract from the fact that in military-related technology Russia is world class.

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