Ukraine’s Offensive Falters as Elite Units Defect to Pro-Russia Side
Source: ABC News Radio
(SLOVIANSK, Ukraine) -- Ukraines anti-terrorist operation to take back areas in eastern Ukraine seized by pro-Russian forces faltered Wednesday as units of Ukraines elite forces in tanks and armored personnel carriers defected to the pro-Russian side.
In at least two towns -- Sloviansk and Kramatorsk -- armored vehicles were seen flying Russian flags and carrying defected troops.
It comes after Ukraine made a big display of military might for journalists on Sunday, showing off the hardware and forces that would take part in the operation. A little while later, helicopters containing special forces took off on their first mission, taking back the Kramatorsk airfield that had been occupied by armed gunmen.
As the operation continued Monday, Ukrainian jets and helicopters could be seen flying across the skies of the eastern Donetsk region.
Read more: http://abcnewsradioonline.com/world-news/ukraines-offensive-falters-as-elite-units-defect-to-pro-russ.html
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Ukraines defence ministry said on Wednesday that pro-Russian militants had taken two of its soldiers hostage in the separatist eastern region of Lugansk.
The ministry said an officer and a soldier were seized by extremists on Tuesday and taken to an unknown destination after they pulled over to repair their vehicle.
It said several branches of Ukraines armed forces were involved in a search for the missing soldiers, and vowed a firm response against those who attack Ukrainian troops.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/04/16/pro-russian-militants-take-two-ukrainian-soldiers-hostage-in-lugansk/
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)"When a country appeals to the court of force, the one thing it cannot do is lose."
bemildred
(90,061 posts)I can't say I like it though. It didn't have to be this way. Given the small damage done, perhaps it's not too late to work things out.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)The angle most important to the authorities in Kiev, I expect, is the certainly Putin is angling for an excuse to cross the border in some force. If the steady nibble of police stations and town halls continues, sooner or later there will be an invitation from something calling itself a government of east Ukraine; if an attempt by the Kiev authorities to stop the steady nibble of police stations and town halls with state force turns seriously bloody, then Putin has a pretext some at least will respect. So the people in Kiev are a circumstance where there may well be no good choices to take.
But if you do send in military force, it has to work, and if it does not, your situation is worse: nothing is more fatal to the perceived legitimacy of a government than a perception it cannot wield force with either competence or success. Misjudging the quality of the tool you take up is a serious failure. A squib is worse than nothing, and usually worse than a pool of blood, too.
I suspect that on both sides, Kiev and Moscow, there is a good deal of bluff going on, and it is open to question just who is calling whose bluff at times. I expect there is some reluctance in Moscow to cross the line, and that the feeling Moscow's stand had an element of bluff in it gave the authorities in Kiev grounds to think they had some room to act.
One thing which interests me, in a 'dog that didn't bark in the night' way, is the lack of comment on the vulnerability of the pipelines through Ukraine. Surely there must be someone at an analyst's desk somewhere remarking that a half dozen masked men in fatigues with a few pounds of plastic explosive could do halt the flow, and do it easily if the guards on the line happened to be looking the other way for some reason or other. This would be as strong a leverage against Germany and points west as it would be against Moscow.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)They just want the profits from it. And the power of threatening to cut it off.
I think that Putin has acted with remarkable restraint and statemanship. Given the demonization that he's been accorded, I think the West thinks so, too.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)Regarding the possibility the flow will be cut, the threat to do it could be of value to either side, as well as factions within either side, and when matters escalate, people do not always keep their heads, or cling to reason and long-term calculation of what will benefit them.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Bulgaria's Presient Rosen Plevneliev accused Russia of undermining the international law and destabilizing Ukraine.
He urged the EU and NATO to support the Ukrainian people in its bid to decide on its own future through honest elections, rather than through backroom machinations.
When one powerful country simply destabilizes, establishes a sphere of influence and is ready to send in special forces, pretending to be self-organized squads, and two weeks later awards them in Kremlin, we have to realize, that this is not right, Plevneliev said in front of law students and professors in the Sofia University Law Department.
Who has the right to decide Ukraine's fate the people of Ukraine in honest and open elections, a new referendum, or great nuclear powers who will negotiate on peripheries, centers and spheres of influence, asked Plevneliev.
http://www.novinite.com/articles/159889/Bulgaria%27s+President+Accuses+Russia+of+Destabilizing+Ukraine
Demeter
(85,373 posts)They don't want any part of their crooked oligarchy
bemildred
(90,061 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)Not long ago he was on the shitlist for his vote against sanctions, if I remember that right, in an EU vote.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)To claim Russia is not an oligarchic kleptocracy would be foolish, and I do not think you are a fool. So at best you have here a situation where people are stating a preference for one bunch of kleptocratic oligarchs over another. The thing can be approached like that, and honest argument made over why one such group of bloated, thieving rulers should be preferred to another. But to pretend one side of this is pure money-grubbing evil and the other a light to the people is utter nonesense, fit only to be smiled at or chuckled over, as suits the mood.
Igel
(35,197 posts)So if Ukrainians are voting with their feet, it's clearly on the side of having Russian-speakers shoot government soldiers. Or beat them. Or humiliate them. Or hold them hostage. Or just all around threaten them.
It's the government forces that are typically showing a lot of restraint. And the different between "defecting" and "being taken hostage" is sometimes iffy, esp. when the "activists" have no trouble beating up women and can find out where your wife or mother lives.
These are, of course, the "good guys", not the fascists in charge of the military. But even good people, fed a steady diet of half-truths, can be corrupted.
Igel
(35,197 posts)Populace is clearly divided. Economics favor supporting Ru.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)What I could gather with a little googling around suggests that too.
And he is right next door there.
Best to let sleeping dogs lie there in peace, but no, peace is boring.
dipsydoodle
(42,239 posts)Last edited Wed Apr 16, 2014, 12:36 PM - Edit history (1)
National Joint-Stock Company Naftogaz Ukrainy on April 15, on the first day of resumption of reverse gas supplies through Poland, imported about 3.9 million cubic meters (mcm) of natural gas.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukraine-on-first-day-of-gas-reverse-resumption-from-poland-imports-almost-4-million-cubic-meters-gas-343823.html
That's about $1.6 millions worth. Be interesting to see if Ukraine pays for it.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)What comes next will depend on what Russia really wants. I don't pretend to know that, I am skeptical they want it all, I think they may be happy with their public position, federalized and finlandized, it works quite well for them, but it's not been put to the test yet.
Now we will find out. There is nothing much in the way if they want to take another bite.
Yes, I brought that up (the pipelines) with Amanda a few days ago. I'm pretty sure they don't want to give anybody ideas, that's why they don't talk about it. I'm reluctant to talk about it myself at times.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)Not so much the military question, the balance of forces at work, but the evident incompetence.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)"It was worse than a crime, it was a mistake."
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)but this is moving so quickly that it's impossible to predict what will happen, IMHO.
This is the last you'll hear from me for two or three weeks. I am off to visit my Mom in Michigan to assist her with the closing of the sale of part of the family farm, and, of course, to spend Easter with her and some of my other relatives.
I'm almost relieved because I'll be in a near news blackout, which I think I'll need.
See you all in May!
bemildred
(90,061 posts)I'm a little jealous.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)You should be more jealous when I go out for my annual late July-early August trip when Lake Michigan has warmed up and the cherries, blueberries and blackberries are in season!
JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)That was a Day 1 action of Kiev government after they took power: to remove Russian as an official language of the Ukraine.
Even for those who would see the means by which they came to power not as a coup d'etat against a democratically elected government, but as a legitimate popular revolution, anyone reasonable must ask:
Why would they do something so wrong, so provocative, and so gratuitous as one of their first actions? Can you think of something more likely to get an uprising from the Russian-speaking citizens of the Ukraine? Did this action not show something essential about the Kiev government?
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)The actual proposed law was not 'abolishing the Russian language', but ceasing to use it in official notices, documents, and the like. This is far from abolishing a language, far from proscribing its teaching, its use. That the thing was proposed is the sort of thing you get in moments of nationalist fervor and triumphalism. There is, among people who are actually of Ukrainian descent, a great deal of dislike and resentment towards Russia, rooted in the murder of millions within living memory, and separation from Russian identity has a certain appeal to many. It would not have been high on my agenda, and but it hardly signifies what some have tried to make it out as: the tocsin for pogrom and massacre requiring forcible intervention by a neighboring power in rescue.
JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)The violence was largely on the coup side, which deployed right-wing and even Nazi thugs like Right Sector.
Abolish is correct, sir. My meaning was clear, so do not pretend (for the purpose of sophistry) that I said anything other than that Russian was removed as an official language of the state. As a practical as well as powerfully symbolic Day 1 action, it is momentous, gratuitous, stupid and threatening to the large Russian-speaking minority, as well as to other Ukrainians who care to identify themselves as citizens of a modern country, rather than as members of some archaic and usually legendary bloodline (as is the case with ethnic groups in general). "Nationalist" fervor?! First of all, besides that nationalism is hardly ever a good thing: This particular nation was invented in 1991 for those who lived in the territory of the Ukrainian Soviet federal republic, without privileging one (perceived) ethnicity over another. 2014 Ukraine did not belong to "Ukrainians" who happened to be of the majority ethnicity more than it did to Ukrainians who spoke Russian as a first language (along with the majority of Ukraine citizens who speak it as their most common everyday language).
There is, among people who are actually of Ukrainian descent, a great deal of dislike and resentment towards Russia, rooted in the murder of millions within living memory, and separation from Russian identity has a certain appeal to many.
This would take long to unpack as a historical interpretation but this identification by some of today-Ukraine's citizens as ethnic "Ukrainians" who were magically born with a beef against "Russians" does not justify hatred and exclusion of another part of same country's citizens who happen to be identified as "Russians" rather than citizens. It is also a false historical interpretation. "Russians" did not kill "Ukrainians" in living memory. In the Soviet Union in the 1930s, Stalinism directly killed hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of citizens of the Soviet Union by means of political executions. But the specific death of Ukrainian ethnicity members in the millions in the 1930s was due to a famine caused in part by bad, possibly intentionally murderous policy of the Soviet Union. Again, Soviet, not "Russian." If in 2014 you have descendants from that time believing they are the "real" Ukrainians (who do not qualify as all ethnic Ukrainians, some of whom actually identify as citoyens of a modern state more than as an ethnic grouping) they do not therefore have a right to hate and resent "Russians." The word for that is racism. "Russian identity" in any case was not being imposed on citizens of the Ukraine today. Revanchists among them participated (as one important faction) in a coup d'etat against the government that had been elected by the majority of the country's citizens.
The original beef against the Yanukovich government was that it was a kleptocracy that preferred an economic deal with Russia over one with the EU. I can also imagine many of the modern country's citizens have a legitimate beef against those who want to impose Greece-style austerity and EU neoliberalism. In any case, this is no justification for the coup government to make it an explicit issue of language and ethnicity by their abolition of Russian as a language of the state. They started the ethnic fire and threw gasoline on it the first day.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)So do not pretend that you did not use words which carry the meaning, to anyone who speaks English, of proscribing the language, of suppressing, even criminalizing its use, of seeing to its being driven out of existence within a polity. This has indeed been done to languages.
Your view of the famine in the thirties is naive. It was, not only in practice but in perception, a thing inflicted by Russians on Ukrainians, Russians having reconquered, under the banner of Bolshevism, the Ukraine only about a decade before, and done so amid great slaughter, and against resistance from both the right and the left which was bitter and prolonged. You may call the feelings which remain racism or revanchism or whatever you please, but they are real and run very deep in the population. The situation, and the actions of many people in it, cannot be understood without reference to, and comprehension of, these feelings and the past which produced them.
Whether the language proposal was or was not a good or proper idea ( and I certainly do not think it was a good idea ), does not alter that you, and some others, have blown it out of all proportion and done so for propagandistic effect.
JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)It provides no justification for either the coup today or the immediate abolition (that is a correctly used word) of Russian as a state language, which declared the coup (the "revolution," whatever) as an ethnic and not a national matter, and set off the response among the Russian native speakers especially in the eastern parts of Ukraine that had voted overwhelmingly for Yanukovich.
As for history, you leave out the more recent history and far bloodier history in which lie the roots of Right Sector and other elements with which the "revolution" government has chosen to align. Hard to believe you think you can omit the Nazi invasion and the killing of millions of civilians by the armed forces of the Germans and those Ukrainians who chose to ally with them -- in whose tradition Right Sector strikes its roots. Everyone's got a history they can draw on! None of it justifies the revival of ethnic madness decades later in a new nation during an economic crisis. To draw another analogy, which side here is the Milosevic playing an ethnic card to gain power in the midst of what was an economic and political crisis?
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)And try to raise 'Nazis killed Ukrainians, too!' for further squid's ink.
You will doubtless be aware the initial reaction of a great many Ukrainians to the appearance of German soldiers in the summer of '41 was jubilant welcome. Events proved this to be a mistake, but if you are going to try and discuss the period, you need to be aware of this, and have some understanding of why it was. Bandera may well have been, by my standards, a pig of the first water, but he was a good deal more than a simple Nazi collaborator, on the lines of Quisling, and people loyal to him were still fighting pitched battles against Soviet Russia in Ukraine into the early fifties.
The problem you have is that you are trying to portray the government in Kiev at present as one which is intent on suppression, expulsion, even massacre of ethnic Russians, and you have not a shred of real evidence for the claim. Worse, for the case you are trying to press, the authorities in Kiev have shown, throughout this trying time, a disinclination to resort to violence against separatist rebels rising in the name of Russian ethnicity which makes your line look like a fever dream.
JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)abolition |ˌabəˈliSHən|
noun
the action or an act of abolishing a system, practice, or institution
I didn't say any of the rest of the stuff you're trying to attribute to me, so enjoy winning the argument with your own projection.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)"I'm going home. Someone get me some frogs and some bourbon."
bemildred
(90,061 posts)(Reuters) - Pro-Russia separatists on Wednesday seized six armoured personnel carriers from the Ukrainian armed forces with the help of Russian agents, Ukraine's defence ministry said.
"A column was blocked by a crowd of local people in Kramatorsk with members of a Russian diversionary-terrorist group among them," the statement said. "As a result of the blocking, extremists seized the equipment."
The statement said the troop carriers were now in Slaviansk, guarded by "people in uniforms who have no relation to Ukraine's armed forces."
That's it except for credits.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/ukraine-crisis-apcs-seized-idUSL6N0N83J220140416?rpc=401&feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews&rpc=401
dipsydoodle
(42,239 posts)See 11.23am BST
It looks like the Ukranian attempt to reassert control in Slavyansk has gone awry, with some troops going over to the pro-Russian side. This from Reuters.
At least three armoured personal carriers that were driven in to the eastern Ukrainian city of Slavyansk had been under the control of Ukrainian armed forces earlier on Wednesday, Reuters photographers said.
A soldier manning one of the troop carriers now under the control of pro-Russian separatists identified himself to Reuters as being a member of Ukraine's 25th paratrooper division from Dnipropetrovsk.
He said: "All the soldiers and the officers are here. We are all boys who won't shoot our own people."
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/16/ukraine-on-the-brink-live-blog-16-april
RIA Novosti is also reporting they were handed over.
Personnel From 6 Armored Transport Vehicles Sent To Kramatorsk In East Ukraine Switch To Side Of Pro-Federalist Activists.
SLAVIANSK, April 16 (RIA Novosti) - The personnel of six armored transport vehicles sent to the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk have switched sides and have joined the pro-federalist activists, witnesses told RIA Novosti on Wednesday.
"We found them at a square near the railway station. A group of women surrounded them, we started telling them we were peaceful residents who are just fighting for their rights and that there are no terrorists here," the witness said, adding: "They won't shoot us."
"The main armored transport vehicle had a Russian flag on it and they left together with our towards Slaviansk," the witness said.
The number of personnel from the transport vehicles was not specified.
http://en.ria.ru/world/20140416/189240520/Personnel-From-6-Armored-Transport-Vehicles-Sent-To-Kramatorsk.html
bemildred
(90,061 posts)cosmicone
(11,014 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)dipsydoodle
(42,239 posts)So -watch this space tomorrow.
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)"Elite forces defect from your army, you got no army left..."
Hence, when Vlasov defected to Germany in the summer of 1942, the Soviets had no army left...?
former9thward
(31,805 posts)happyslug
(14,779 posts)There is some questions why Vlasov defected, the most likely reason is that he thought he be shot if the Soviet Union won the war (he was wrong, the Russians hanged him instead). Please note his fear was NOT because he defected, but the Soviet army he can commanded was surrounded and destroyed.
Right now in the Ukraine, you have both sides shaping up their sides. Unlike WWII when one nation invaded another. It appears that the Ukrainian army is dissolving, with some units defecting to the Russian Speaking sides, others are joining the newly formed Ukrainian National Guard to "suppress terrorists" in the Eastern Ukraine, while others staying with their units, but not doing anything.
Reminds me of the first year of the US Civil War. Battles were fought, but the Regular US Army never rouse above 45,000 men (out of a 1 million man army). Lincoln told all of the officers of the Military they could resign if they wanted to (Most of the Future Generals of the South did that including Robert E, Lee). At the same time Lincoln called out the Militia and asked for 90 day volunteers to suppress the Rebellion. Only after it became clear that the war would last more then the summer, that the term of enlistment was raised to the Duration plus 30 days.
Local officials raised troops in both the North and the South. Some were Militia units, other National Guard Units (At that time the two were different, the National Guard Units were private clubs of men who wanted to form a military unit, but did not want to serve in the Militia, which had been in rapid decay since 1820 or the Regular Army). Each state raised units for the Federal Government (In the South each state Raised units for the Confederacy). At the same time, the States would raise units for its own use, and many local governments did the same on the local level (thus the various "Home Guard" units of the Civil War Era in addition to "State Troops" .
Thus the Armies that fought the US Civil War, except for equipment, uniforms and other minor things, were completely different then the Army the US had before (and in many ways since) the US Civil war.
The same thing is occurring in the Ukraine. The Regular Army is dividing between those loyal to the Ukrainian speaking part of the Ukraine, and the Russian speaking part of the Ukraine (and unlike the US Regular Army of the Civil War era, dissolving before our eyes).
To provide the needed troops, both sides are setting up military units, often lead by officers from the former Ukrainian army and local politicians (The Ukraine is only 20 years from being part of the Soviet Union and its universal military service, thus still has a good pool of Junior Officers and trained enlisted personal (unlike the US in 1861, where the US Army enlisted ranks were mostly recent immigrants and thus poor personal to build an army around).
Thus the people of the Ukraine are acting faster then the US did in 1861, but it still takes time to build up the forces to fight a civil war. Right now, with the Regular Ukrainian army dissolving, both sides are raising troops to fight that Civil War, Neither side has the troops it needs to launch an attack, but both sides are building up to that point.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Vladimir Putin first presented the Russian terms on Friday in an unannounced telephone call to Barack Obama and then, in more detail, to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry via the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during a four-hour meeting in Paris on Sunday night.
Moscow wants the new Ukrainian constitution to grant a high level of autonomy to regional authorities in matters of economy, taxes, culture, language and education, and to enable them to continually establish direct economic and cultural relations with neighboring countries or regions. The intention is clear: This way, through the Eastern provinces populated mostly by Russians, the Kremlin will be able to permanently influence Kiev's policy, and above all, block the country's integration with the West the more so because the new constitution, according to Moscow, should contain the principle of the permanent neutrality of Ukraine.
Admittedly, after the meeting in Paris, Kerry stressed that an agreement has not been reached and, in any case, that all decisions will need to be discussed with the authorities in Kiev. He also admitted that he will "consider the ideas and the suggestions that we developed tonight." According to The Los Angeles Times, the two politicians agreed to "work together for a global reform of the constitution, as well as free and fair elections monitored by the international community."* Like the U.S. media have emphasized, the secretary of state did not mention Crimea in the conversation with Lavrov. This means that in practice, America recognized the Russian occupation of the peninsula.
Kievs response to the Lavrovs proposal is much firmer. In a special statement, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry declared, "Under machine gun muzzles, the aggressor strives for one thing: the total surrender of Ukraine, and the decay and destruction of the Ukrainian state."*
http://watchingamerica.com/News/236556/russia-imposes-its-ways-on-us/
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Demeter
(85,373 posts)And I say this as a 100% Polish ham...
And the modern Polish state is so fundamentally blockheaded as to be a disgrace to Tadeusz Kościuszko's sainted memory.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)I thought there were some interesting bits in there.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)If Russia does swallow the Donets, I would half expect Poland to try for a slice of the northwest, the old Galician districts....
bemildred
(90,061 posts)The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)People are fond of rivers and mountains for a reason.
But that area was Polish, for a long time, and Poland, in conjunction with Lithuania, used to run the whole area.
The old drama of Polish partition could simply have shifted east, we may discover, and this is the sort of prospect towards the long run which makes me seriously detest Putin's imperialist venturings here. There are so many things in the present map that could be open to legitimate rectification that there is no reason to stop at one, once the habit of leaving things in place can be shown to have been broken, and broken with success and profit.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)not if Goldman Sachs has anything to say about it.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)And the specific district was generally considered Polish till the end of WWII, and it is only because a great deal of blood was shed, and many people forced to flee for their lives, that it is not Polish now.
Poland before that war was a most acquisitive state, taking land from Lithuania, and from Czechoslovakia during the Munich affair.
I do not seriously expect, and did not say I seriously expected, Poland to take the northwest of Ukraine, but a can of worms is being opened here, and to no good purpose but the self-aggrandizement of a revanchist in Moscow.
joshcryer
(62,265 posts)Do you happen to know, Sir?
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)As I said, I do not seriously think that would happen, at least not just now, but it does illustrate the sort of thing being courted if Putin is allowed to succeed with further occupations and annexations in Ukraine. There are lots of border adjustments and ancestral territories and none too happy minorities scattered about the place....
Igel
(35,197 posts)Which was quite entertaining, all things considered.
The demand was that the Duma rescind the right granted to Putin to use the Russian Army "in all parts" of Ukraine at Russia's sole discretion.
Apparently sending in Russian troops is considered an "internal affair." Go figure.
joshcryer
(62,265 posts)Didn't think I'd live to see the day it was quite literally used like that.
Then again... I've seen it in regards to Obama's actions.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Response to bemildred (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)being written, I think, is scary..sorry. To me it is that dramatic.
Xolodno
(6,341 posts)Only posting some interesting info:
-------------------------------------------
A soldier guarding one of the carriers told Reuters he was a member of Ukraine's 25th airborne brigade from Dnipropetrovsk, a city also in eastern Ukraine.
He said the soldiers had had no food for four days until local people fed them.
"All the soldiers and the officers are here," he said. "We are all boys who won't shoot our own people."
----------------------------------------
Methinks the use of force was not the best option. This only muddies the situation....and show's the obvious reason why Russian troops are on the border. If Pro-West Ukrainian troops open fire on the "terrorists"....Russia will call it a massacre and genocide...and move in.
I'm going to guess the Ukrainian interim government decided to go ahead with this in order to strengthen its position at the negotiating table on Thursday. They may have overplayed their hand.
Hungry troops makes for bad morale. The possibility of being ordered to shoot your own citizens doesn't help. Taking orders from an interim government doesn't exactly inspire loyalty either.
Catherina
(35,568 posts)Youtube and news sites which emphasize reporting over propaganda have been crawling with videos of Ukranian troops refusing to fire on their compatriots and switching sides.
This one is from a few days ago when local people of South-East caught and disarmed the tank near the city of Donetsk. The tank crew doesn't even seem to have and idea how to properly operate the vehicle. In this video, according to the freaks of the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev, what you see are terrorists.
According to the audiovisuals, what you see is simple civilians willing to stand up in front of a tank with their car and their bodies to stop it.
Quick translation: "Who do you plan to shoot at? Stop the engine! Stop the engine! What are you pulling your assault rifle out for? Do you think that if we jump on your tank it will protect you? No, tell us, who are you going to shoot at? Switch off the engine, hush it down, we are telling you. Where will you go - everywhere people. Chaps, let's pull them out of this tank, they don't know what they are doing. Hush down the engine, stop it, who are you going to shoot at - at own lads?
Chaps, don't touch them, let's solve it normally, like normal people.
Hush down the engine, stop it."
Judging by the copious amount of cursing the civilians are very angry because they suspect this tank is headed for the city of Slaviansk. The poor tank crew seemed clearly frightened and ashamed and the tank commander did the only right thing: he climbed out of the tank, begged to crowd not to touch it (he is personally responsible for it) and tried to convince the crowd that they didn't plan on shooting anyone. The tank commander looks like a nice young guy placed in an impossible situation and the civilians understood that. The residents were angry because initially the tank crew tried to avoid them. The good news is that level heads were saying "stop screaming! stop screaming!" and cooled down the angry crowd. And no, despite all the weasel worded screeching implications from our State Department, there weren't any Spetsnaz GRU in disguise or any sign of Russians at all.
If these civilians had been military, even without anti-tank weapons, they could have easily set this tank on fire. In other words, complete total chaos for the putchists in Kiev who weren't counting on Ukranian military not wanting to kill their fellow compatriots.
And all those who claim to "know" Russians are causing the chaos can't provide a shred of credible evidence to back up their claims except for "clothes and guns look Russian" and "they look organized". Of course they have uniforms and look "organized". Half of the Ukrainian army has defected in the East, the Berkut force was disbanded by the interim govt and most of police are siding with protestors -- there's plenty of organized and armed people to go around. And the unarmed locals, men, women and teenagers are out in full force too as evidenced by all the videos.
It was local civilian activists who peacefully disarmed the 25th Brigade of Ukrainian paratroopers sent over there and then provided food and civilian clothes for them.
The idea of shooting at one's own people at the whim of questionable 'government' in Kiev seems utterly unimpressive to Ukrainian soldiers and reservists.
On this video from Donetsk, you can see some Ukrainian military vehicles raising Russian flags, while others raise the flags of the Donetsk
Here's another video. Kramatorsk residents at the local Malotaranovka railway crossing blocking a convoy of 15 military vehicles.
One YouTube video of what happened next shows a woman coming to a soldier with the reproach: You are the army, you must protect the people.
We are not going to shoot, we werent even going to, is the soldiers reply.
Similar conversations could be heard at each of several APCs which entered the city, with locals promising to defend their neighbors, in case the soldiers start a military operation.
...
Weve seen here, that these are neither separatists nor terrorists, but ordinary local residents, with whom we are not going to go to battle, one of the defected soldiers said.
....
Anti-government activists block a collumn of Ukrainian men riding on Armoured Personnel Carriers in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk on April 16, 2014. (AFP Photo/Anatoly Stepanov)
The soldiers and civilians started fraternizing very quickly and soon were joking about coming for a visit without weapons next time. Many of the soldiers put on St. Georges ribbons, the traditional Russian emblem used to commemorate the Soviet Unions fight against Nazism in World War II.
http://rt.com/news/ukrainian-tanks-kramatorsk-civilians-840/
Ukrainians don't want fight with Ukrainians and they don't want to fight with Russians all for the grand Austerity prizes like 50% pension cuts, higher retirement ages, loss of social services etc in IMF's Cracker Jack box. Surprise surprise.
In other important news, though you wouldn't know it from the corporate press,
"In my opinion, its mostly people who live in the region, people from the region who are not satisfied with the current state of affairs... concerned citizens"
as reported in the EU press.
Von petrapez | Veröffentlicht: 15. April 2014
In einem Interview mit dem finnischen Rundfunk YLE sagte Alafuzoff, dass es in der Region nicht zu aktiven Feindseligkeiten und zu keiner gross angelegten Präsenz von russischer Seite gab. Meiner Meinung nach, sind es vor allem die Menschen, die in der Region leben und nicht mit dem aktuellen Stand der Dinge zufrieden sind, so Admiral Alafuzoff.
https://www.radio-utopie.de/tag/george-alafuzoff/
Interview is here in Finnish: http://yle.fi/uutiset/eun_tiedustelujohtaja_venaja_ei_ole_asemoitunut_sotilaallisesti_ukrainaan/7190544
bemildred
(90,061 posts)To be expected in my view. The interim government has done little to curry public support. They appear to think they don't have to, or something stranger than living in the bubble even.
Catherina
(35,568 posts)It's beyond ludicrous to recognize the overthrow of a democratically elected government by violent rightwing musclepower and then complain when Ukrainian citizens resist their future being signed away by a junta in Kiev that no one voted for.
Check this site out. It was set up in 2007 and is beyond amusing. The "Arseniy Yatsenyk Foundation Open Ukraine". Its partners are hilarious too (NATO, National Endowment for Democracy, US State Dept, Chatham House, Oligarch Victor Pinchuk of the Davos Philanthropic Roundtable, International Renaissance Foundation, The Black Sea Trust(German Marshall Fund of the United States), and hedgefund vultures Horizon Capital, SwedBank, who are already plundering Ukraine with the privatization deals that never make the US press.
I especially love the NED's Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellowship they had going right before the "spontaneous" EuroMaidan uprising.
http://en.prostirzmin.com.ua/forum/287
Several of their fellows are press people since the program targets "democratic activists, scholars, and journalists".
The Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellowship Program is an international exchange program named in honor of NEDs principal founders, former president Ronald Reagan and the late congressman Dante Fascell. Funded by the U.S. Congress, the fellowship program supports democratic activists, scholars, and journalists from around the world to undertake independent research on democratic challenges worldwide.
http://www.ned.org/fellowships/reagan-fascell-democracy-fellows-program
Like this little fellow Sergii Leshchenko.
+1000 "something stranger than living in the bubble even" Indeed.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Like it's a business. They don't obey, you just fire them and hire some more. And they have to give you the tanks back.
Catherina
(35,568 posts)19:03 GMT:
Three people were injured after Ukrainian troops heading for Kramatorsk airfield in armored vehicles fired at a car attempting to block their way, RIA Novosti reports citing anti-government activists.
The incident took place near the village of Pchyolkino, south of Kramatorsk. The car was placed in the way of a convoy of an unknown number of vehicles, which then continued driving towards the airfield.
According to the activists, two people received leg injuries and a third one was shot in the shoulder. The wounded activists sought medical help.
http://rt.com/news/eastern-ukraine-army-operation-680/
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Catherina
(35,568 posts)White House press secretary Jay Carney told reporters during a scheduled briefing in Washington, DC midday Wednesday that the Obama administration is obviously evaluating requests and looking at ways that we can support the Ukrainian government. Soon after that same afternoon, the AP reported that the US is indeed in the midst of preparing to provide assistance, according to anonymous sources who confirmed the existence of plans to the newswire but were not yet authorized to discuss the matter publically.
...
The incremental assistance would be aimed both at bolstering the Ukrainian military as it seeks to halt the advances of pro-Russian forces in the east, as well as showing symbolic US support for Ukraine's efforts," Julie Pace and Robert Burns reported for the AP. But the aid is unlikely to satisfy the Obama administration's critics, who say what the Ukrainians really need are weapons to defend themselves.
...
Carney, Pace and Burns reported, sidestepped questions about whether the US would supply military-style equipment like body armor that is not technically defined as lethal aid during Wednesdays meeting. The anonymous officials who spoke to the news agency did claim, however, that such assistance isnt expected to be included in the new car package being prepared.
...
....http://rt.com/usa/non-lethal-aid-ukraine-988/
By JULIE PACE and ROBERT BURNS
Apr. 16, 2014 12:59 PM EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) The United States is working on a package of non-lethal aid for Ukraine that could include medical supplies and clothing, but would stop short of providing body armor and other military-style equipment, U.S. officials said Wednesday.
The incremental assistance would be aimed both at bolstering the Ukrainian military as it seeks to halt the advances of pro-Russian forces in the east, as well as showing symbolic U.S. support for Ukraine's efforts. But the aid is unlikely to satisfy the Obama administration's critics, who say what the Ukrainians really need are weapons to defend themselves.
"We ought to at least, for God's sake, give them some light weapons with which to defend themselves," Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said over the weekend.
The administration has said it is considering aid requests from Ukraine, but is not actively considering sending weapons, ammunition or other lethal assistance.
...
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/us-working-non-lethal-aid-package-ukraine
cprise
(8,445 posts)... is that NATO talks (and purse strings) will not be allowed back on the table like in previous years. To say this dampens the enthusiasm of the men in these units would be an understatement.
It also seems the Russians are drawing from more than Kosovo as a US-backed precedent: The US imposition of a weak federal model of government on Iraq is another episode that can be turned around for Russian interests in Ukraine.
Catherina
(35,568 posts)that I was typing to bemildred when you typed this. Post 40.
The really think Ukrainians, and working people around the world, have the short attention spans of the general US public and are gonna fall for this. Ukranians have been protesting the NATO for years, just like the protesters being violently suppressed in Bahrain right now that our media never talks about. What's happening now is their own worst fears come true but somehow it's all Russia's fault lol.
for Ukraine itself, public perception of these exercises in Ukraine is generally very negative
and quite polarized. In fact, several times since 1997 massive public protests against Sea
Breeze led to the disruption of several exercises and created a generally unfavorable envi-
ronment for multilateral collaboration (Sanders, 2007). The major reason is that the public
tends to view Ukraines participation in Sea Breeze as part of a larger pro-NATO agenda, and
Ukraines stronger affiliation with NATO is perceived very negatively by the majority of the
Ukrainian population, as well as by the current parliamentary majority (Dmitriy Tabachnik,
Petr Simonenko, Sergey Grinevetskiy, & Kryuchkov, 2009; Molchanov, 2000; Simon, 2009).
For example, a public opinion poll conducted by the Ukrainian national think tank Demo-
cratic Initiatives in 2012 indicated that 74.3 per cent of people from the East, 73.9 percent
from the South, 52.3 percent from the Center and 39.2 percent from the West answered nega-
tively to the question of whether Ukraine should join NATO (Democratic Initiatives Founda-
tion, December 2012). These data also show evidence of the East-West divide in the public
perceptions regarding NATO. At the same time, a significant proportion of the Ukrainian
population across all regions is undecided in their views regarding NATO (see Table 1).
Hence, changing the opinion of these people would help to mitigate the general hostility
of the Ukrainian population towards NATO and its security initiatives.
...
The Donetsk newspaper makes a clear association between Sea Breeze and NATO, and
since the anti-NATO sentiment is very prevalent in the region, negative public opinion about
Sea Breeze feeds itself. In several articles there is a call to proclaim Donetsk a NATO-free
territory. Following this logic, Sea Breeze is called a foreign invasion of the Ukrainian land,
immediate harm to Ukraines territorial integrity and a factor that is detrimental to Ukraines
sovereignty. The Donetsk public is fearful not only that the national government is deciding
everything despite local opposition but also that a powerful foreign actor (the U.S.) might
subvert the national government in Ukraine by controlling its decisions. To a lesser extent,
the paper also discusses the geopolitical alignment of Ukraine and the idea that being closer
with Russia is more beneficial than building partnerships with NATO. Aside from NATO-
related objections against Sea Breeze, the Donetsk paper talks about the harms of Sea Breeze
for local tourism in Crimea. On the other hand, Sea Breeze cancellations are viewed as lost
opportunities for Ukraine and its military capacity. Hence, the Donetsk public is not against
the Sea Breeze exercises per se, but rather against too much foreign influence in Ukraine, and
against the intentions of the Ukrainian government to make unilateral decisions regardless of
peoples preferences at the local level.
Articles in the Kharkiv newspaper are openly negative about Sea Breeze. There is a
strong war rhetoric and fear that Sea Breeze is a form of direct military invasion of Ukraine
(not the invasion of Ukraines sovereignty like in the Donetsk paper). There is also a suspi-
cion that Sea Breeze is just another form of foreign military intelligence in Ukraine and a
program with some hidden motives:
...
The Crimean newspaper portrays Sea Breeze in a very negative light. It views these ex-
ercises as a foreign invasion and an attack against Ukraine that violates the Ukrainian Con-
stitution and the principle of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Similar to the Donetsk paper,
there is a strong sense of regionalism in Crimea and a harsh critique of the national govern-
ments unwillingness to consider the preferences of the Crimean people. Crimean articles
condemn the national governments disrespect towards the democratic freedoms of speech
and free expression that are exercised by the anti-Sea Breeze protesters. The national govern-
ment is described as uncivilized, ignorant, and stubborn.
...
http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/Collaboration/international/Ukraine/Sea-Breeze-exercise.pdf
And that was before all this
Igel
(35,197 posts)Esp. the British elements. "Bljad'," nicely left out.
"Turn off" isn't there. They're asking for the tanks, and not nicely. And the guys who "don't know how to operate the vehicle" are avoiding vehicles on the road. You can see why they're off the road at the start. You can see why they run off the road. And when they're finally surrounded by civilians, they're stuck.
The best they can ask if "Don't hurt us"--which hardly says a lot.
This is a leitmotif in the entire prop war. The English stuff on Youtube is polite and the stuff in Ukr and Ru show that the Russian speakers are busy collecting arms and distributing them, and being threatening about it when their insistent demands aren't met.
And sometimes when they are you see the videos of the Ukr soldiers being beaten, humiliated, taunted, proudly posted. But in English the taunts are "offers of food" and the soldiers being kicked just aren't there.
Catherina
(35,568 posts)joshcryer
(62,265 posts)It was a "we refuse to shoot unarmed protesters, here, have our equipment, we'll see you later." It's pure propaganda, I've seen it time and time again, and some of the fascists supporters don't see it because they're too blind to their own internal fascist ideas.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)Like many of the leading men in Ukraines new military pecking order, Petr Mekhed wasnt exactly ripe for the task of fending off a Russian invasion when he assumed the post of Deputy Defense Minister in February. His last tour of combat duty was about 30 years ago, during the Soviet war in Afghanistan, after which he reached the rank of colonel in the Red Army. When revolution in Ukraine broke out this winter, his wartime experience made him better equipped than most at defending the barricades of the Maidan protest camp in the center of Kiev. But it was not as useful in preparing him to lead his country into war. For some issues Ive had to sit down with a book and study up, he says.
Armored Vehicles Flying Russian Flags Appear in Eastern UkraineWhite House Backs Ukraines Eastern OffensiveMen Charged With Toppling Ancient Rock Formation Avoid Jail Time Huffington PostHere's An Updated Tally Of All The People Who Have Ever Died From A Marijuana Overdose Huffington PostJenny McCarthy Engaged to Donnie Wahlberg People
His conclusion so far is an unsettling one for Ukraines political leaders. If they want to find a way out of their conflict with Russia, which edged closer on Tuesday to military confrontation in the eastern region of Donetsk, they have only one way to do it, Mekhed says, and that is to negotiate. Well never get anywhere through the use of military force, he tells TIME. It would be much more effective to undercut Russias support for the local separatists by meeting them halfway, Mekhed suggests, with an offer of more autonomy for Ukraines eastern regions. Our chances of saving Donetsk are now in the hands of our politicians and their ability to sit down with the people there and talk to them.
But those politicians dont seem to agree. On Tuesday morning, Ukraines interim President, Oleksandr Turchynov, launched the first military action against the pro-Russian gunmen who seized parts of Donetsk over the weekend. The assault, which the central government in Kiev termed an antiterrorist operation, reportedly involved more than a dozen armored personnel carriers, as well as helicopters and military trucks that faced off against 30 gunmen for control of an airport near the town of Kramatorsk.
So was Ukraine ready for that kind of standoff? Maybe. But some of its top military and intelligence officials highly doubt that it is ready for the likely fallout, and whatever support Tuesdays operation garnered from the White House will probably not translate into much military assistance from the West. More likely, it will provoke a Russian counterstrike, not from the small group of Russian special forces who have apparently been leading the separatists in Donetsk, but from the full weight of the Russian military. That would mean game over pretty quickly for Ukraine.
http://time.com/64303/ukraine-is-not-ready-for-the-consequences-of-taking-russias-military-bait/
nyabingi
(1,145 posts)...is the further unraveling of Obama's neo-conservative foreign policy (and I call it Obama's because he has seemingly adopted the Bush regime's doctrine and is allowing the presence of known neo-cons like Victoria Nuland) and the very weak position Bush's disastrous years has put us in. Washington's boys in Kiev followed the advice of their American and European masters and ordered their military into eastern Ukraine, hoping to destabilize the country even more than it already is.
I said right after Crimea successfully broke away from Kiev's orbit that the eastern Ukrainians would want to do the same and if the Ukrainian military refuses to kill their countrymen, it will happen (unless some excuse to send in NATO is manufactured). The West has once again overplayed it's hand, trying to follow the ambitious but foolish policies of the Bill Kristols and Robert Kagans of the world.
Then again, I could just be spouting completely false and propagandist Putinist lies about all of this...
bemildred
(90,061 posts)And I think that is sound thinking on his part.
Otherwise, I'm OK with that, though I might not characterize it quite that way.
I don't know why Obama allows this sort of folly to proceed, but I am sure the reasons are political and domestic.
You may be sure that the point of this exercise was to gain leverage for the 4-way talks, and that is where we will see the consquences play out now.
nyabingi
(1,145 posts)about protecting the gas infrastructure that carries gas through Ukraine to Europe and the income it generates for the Russian economy (something the US and EU were looking to strip from Russia). This wasn't going to happen with a leader who refused to go along with joining the orbit of the EU, and as soon as Yanukovich refused the deal, he needed to be removed. I think Obama, like many Democrats and Republicans, are very much behind aggressive nation-building and regime change in order to secure energy resources, make foreign countries appealing to American investment, and thwart any nation that may threaten our position at the top of world affairs.
This has been done for a long time here, but the neo-conservative version of it is particularly dumb and short-sighted ("We'll be greeted as liberators in Iraq!" .
bemildred
(90,061 posts)I think everybody pursues their own interests, the question is what are the methods they use? And do they think farther ahead than next week? And that is where I fault them. Yeah, they are dumb. I used to get in arguments here for saying Neocons are dumb. But they are.
cosmicone
(11,014 posts)many a superpower of the past.
We are following in the footsteps of the Greeks, Italians, Dutch and British in exactly the same way.
They all outsourced manufacturing, got heavily into financial services and focused on military spending to fuel expansion. Eventually, the costs of maintaining a hold on the territories outpaced the revenue generated from them and when it came tumbling down, they had no economy left.
We need to bring manufacturing jobs back and gradually reduce world-policing and creating captive markets for the 1%.
It is astonishing that even some people on DU don't understand that the 99%ers pay for the CIA and military and 1% benefit from the use of that military.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)But no one is going to drive armored columns from Kharkiv towards Baku and Moscow.
What Putin wants, besides the prestige of being restorer of past glories, is undisturbed economic exploitation of a colony, and on no sounder ground than that it shares a border with his country: that is something we do not even manage to enjoy in Latin America anymore.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)I don't mean to imply he is being altruisitic.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)Traditionally, one wants a 'buffer state' against the possibility of invasion. Soviet policy in the twentieth century was quite cold-blooded about this, but in the circumstances actually obtaining at the time, it is hard to argue against, for example, the occupation of the Baltic states ( whatever one may think about how it was done, and the policies executed when it was done ), because the military vacuum they presented to a thrust from East Prussia or Poland into vital centers of the Soviet Union was obvious.
But this is no longer really a consideration today. NATO is not going to invade Russia; Russia faces no danger whatever of military conquest from the West. It may well face coming out on the short end of economic competitions: its economy depends on energy exports, not on export or even domestic manufacture of industrial goods, and that is a status more associated with developing countries than proud heirs of empire.
But territory is no 'buffer', really, against economic competition, that is global, something in which everyone is adjacent to everyone else. Fish caught in the North Sea are shipped to the Orient for processing and shipped back to be sold in restaurants in Scotland, and this is done because it is cheaper then paying wages to Scotsmen for the work of processing in bulk. The only way territory can be buffer against this sort of thing is if one rigs the game against some jurisdiction, sets up a situation in which one controls both capital inputs and production outputs in a place, and dedicates these to one's own purposes by dint of such control. This sort of thing is never a 'win-win' situation; the dominant party's profits and benefits come at the expense of the exploited.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)I don't feel that I grok him as a person enough to hazard an opinion. But he's not one to shrink from violence, and he's not dumb. The personal display he likes is not my cup of tea.
But as a guess, I'd say he wants to make money and that's what he thinks is the best way to do it. And he is a socially conservative, religious, russian nationalist, or he plays one on TV anyway, and he likes our business but not our culture so much.
And both of those purposes are better served by a neutral-friendly Ukraine, a Ukraine he can do business with and through, and a Ukraine that buffers out Western cultural influence.
Anyway, there's a theory for you.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)But one does not get friendly relations with a neighbor by trying to dismember it, and you cannot buffer out Western cultural influence. That, you may recall, was tried before, by experts, who could back up their strictures with serious jail time if not execution, and even before the inter-tubes they could not manage it. I seldom quote comic strips in serious discussions, but a Doonesberry character crowing a quarter century ago "We won with the basics; cheap wheat, cool jeans, and great rock and roll" got it pretty much right.
If what he wants is what you suggest, he cannot really get it, certainly not by the means he is employing. He can, by those means, get a cowed captive, and whatever that captive has to its wallet, and most of what it might produce in the near future. That, and possibly a good deal of trouble in the western marches of the place.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)it is a threat to him too, this separatism, there is a real spontaneous element in it, just as before in Kiev. I expect his alarm is real. The 4-way talks are going to be very interesting.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)He owns it now, consequences and all.
And he could chill it tomorrow, by stating under no circumstances will Russian troops cross into Ukraine, and under no circumstances will Russia annex, by any means or under any guise, any portion of Ukraine as presently constituted.
"Do not call up that which you cannot put down."
bemildred
(90,061 posts)But I don't think that it is politik for him to say that, at home, he has an image to maintain, which is why the outcome of the talks will be interesting.
How anxious does he appear to settle things down? More and it supports my theory, less and I'm blown out of the water.
So far his comments in that regard have been of the "no intentions" form which means nothing, when it comes to invasion.
On the other hand the public position is as I said, weak federal government and neutral if not friendly, and it defuses the separatism issue.
I would think that lots of people would want to defuse the separatism issue.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)But to the degree that it appears imposed from without, the less effective it will be as a balm, and the more likely it will act as a centrifugal impetus.
As you say, the future will tell, but I think the man is looking to carve off chunks, and I think what has happened so far supports that.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)But since militarily speaking he has been in a position to do that, and has not done so, I assume he doesn't really want to. It's not like it will get better the longer he drags it out.
But if one or more "regions" decide to do as Crimea did, he may well be forced to do something about it.
It will not be so easy for him in the East, elections for secession, he would have to do some "shaping of the electorate" there too.
Right now I don't see that happening, but it could easily.
Russia is an empire too. So is China, and China is uncomfortable. Separatism is something they don't like to think about.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)If there actually is an invasion, from Moscow's point of view it is best done with prepared ground. People out in the streets, attempts at repression by the Kiev authorities, appeals for help from the beleaguered kin, a declaration of independence, an invitation from the new local government, all this sort of stage management and window dressing clouds the issue of actually rolling across an international border in force and gives his PR people and those willing to play along for free things to talk up and point to for distraction from that one large fact. These things take some time. I would say the danger of such action will not be over until a fortnight at least past the late-May elections.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)joshcryer
(62,265 posts)He cannot take any Oblast.
It is inconceivable.
Donetsk is only 38% Russian, for Russia to take it would be to deny the agency of nearly 2/3rds ethnic Ukrainians. It would not end well. The same for Luhansk. Russia could take the smaller raions (counties), such as Stanytsia-Luhanska, or Krasnodon. Donetsk city would be extremely shaky, as they are looking at a 50/50 Russian/Ukrainian split there.
Pavel Gubarev was arrested, showing that Donetsk isn't willing to give up so easily and the Donetsk protests never garner more than a couple of thousand people at a given time. Ethnic Russians or Ukrainians won't even go near there. It's a cesspool of drunken idiots wanting revolution (this is not an exaggeration as they had to ban alcohol at the protest site spot to stop infighting and drunken behavior).
Note: I'm saying, legitimate, I'm not saying forcefully, Russia's military could likely take the entire Donbas region. But it would incur huge losses. Russia isn't prepared for that and I don't see it happening as long as Ukraine keeps up the pressure.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)But there does seem to be an element of 'might makes right' in Putin's policies here. It may be a misjudgement in the long run, but I suspect he thinks he could take the place and hold with little trouble.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)also be the lynchpin of Putin's economic co-prosperity sphere, just like Mexico has to be independent to be part of NAFTA. And the same applies to fragmentation, civil war, etc., only a unified non-hostile Ukraine works for that purpose.
cprise
(8,445 posts)...and also no takeover of Iraq. Perhaps given a bit more time, we would have promised no fracking in Ukraine.
You're right about Latin America, though. The mode of exploitation has become rather disturbed.
Some of us also remember Honduras and Haiti.
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)But we must deal with the world as it is. One of the reasons the 'eastward ho' policy came into practice was the deep reluctance of people who had been under Russian and Soviet rule for decades if not centuries to be done with it once and for all. Membership in NATO was seen in former Warsaw Pact states and former Soviet republics as a certain shield against re-imposition of Russian rule.
Catherina
(35,568 posts)It is against Ukrainian law for the Ukrainian military to use armed force against Ukrainian civilians. If Kiev sends in its newly formed National Guard that's made up of Svoboda and other rightwingers, some of them may be hellbent on killing some "Moskali scum" but there's no way the majority of Ukrainian soldiers will shoot their fellow countrymen, regardless of the cost, and risk ending up in court once sanity is restored.
I was watching interviews with some of the soldiers who were sent from Kiev and switched sides yesterday. They were all so young and seemed genuinely angry that a Kiev government they didn't even vote for (their words not mine) sent them in to fight terrorists and when they got there, all they saw were men, women and children fellow citizens.
It's against the law for them to fight Ukranian civilians .
Some excuse to send in NATO will be manufactured. Bank on it. This was Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a rightwing Danish politician who's the 12th Secretary General of NATO just yesterday
Translation: "Our coup in Ukraine has gone tits up and we look like idiots. We were hoping Russia would invade the east just to distract everyone from our embarrassing mess, but sadly they haven't, so we've decided our only option is to pretend Russia is responsible for everything. Our "policy" for the foreseeable future will be to sit here watching the chaos get worse, pointing at Russia and saying "this is all down to you, so stop it, " and hope that something magic happens to make this whole awful mess go away before NATO starts WW3."
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)You are saying that Obama's policy is the same as Bush's? Hold on why I go laugh.
nyabingi
(1,145 posts)please tell me what are the significant differences between Obama and Bush foreign policy-wise? Obama has not done nearly enough to close Guantanamo Bay (it's the Congressional Republicans' fault), he's intensified the drone killings all over the world, he favored NATO's assault on Libya, he's backing Paul Kagame's murderous regime in Rwanda and the homophobes of Uganda, seeking to destabilize Venezuela again, threatening China, backing a coup-appointed government in Ukraine, arming anti-American jihadists in Syria, and taking advice from some of the same neo-cons who infested the Bush regime.
Now you give me a list of the things he's doing differently - after you finish laughing of course.
SunsetDreams
(8,571 posts)Bush would have done been in there with his highfalutin pistols blazing, throwing stink bombs all over the place, not bother to ask questions before or later and hung a "Mission Accomplished" sign across Crimea and Ukrain dust land with bodies strewn around.
Xithras
(16,191 posts)Ukraine didn't build a new military from scratch after the USSR disintegrated, and those Soviet soldiers didn't all move to Russia. Those with homes in Ukraine stayed in Ukraine, and built the foundations of the current Ukrainian military. Nowadays, those career soldiers are the officers running the show. Even worse, they trained many of the younger soldiers who now make up the bulk of Ukraine's military.
Clearly, that's a problem in situations like this one.
cosmicone
(11,014 posts)How can a soldier take orders from someone installed by the CIA and neocons in Washington against their own blood?
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Russia has staged tanks, fighter jets and an estimated 40,000 troops on its border with Ukraine. But dont expect them to charge across and start a conventional war Russia is already achieving what it wants by causing chaos.
Thats the read from a retired Army general.
I think Putins smarter than to have an invasion, Gen. Montgomery Meigs told NBC News, referring to Vladimir Putin, the Russian president. He has the whip hand with all his special-ops guys running around firing up the Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government is trying to establish control over the east, where pro-Russian militants have seized government buildings in at least nine cities a sort of slow-motion invasion from within.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/ukraine-invasion-unlikely-russia-achieves-goals-general-n82086
Catherina
(35,568 posts)Where is Gen. Montgomery Meigs getting his information? I really wish the US news would dump broadcasting analysis based on State Dept talking points and switch to reporting news.
This was buried in a Guardian article today, that I just happened to be reading when I saw your post.
However, the general added that he saw no evidence of a strategic Russian buildup on Ukraine's borders. He stressed the military movements were intended entirely to reassure Nato members along Russia's borders who had been unnerved by Russian actions in Ukraine.
The air force general said he had attempted to call the Russian chief of general staff, Valery Gerasimov, to explain that the deployments were entirely defensive but had not been able to reach him.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/16/nato-step-up-presence-russian-borders-eastern-europe
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Benton D Struckcheon
(2,347 posts)That'll just get him a set of consequences he'd rather do without. As it is they've got a serious situation going with capital flight, and they may have arrested some decent progress they made in 2013 attracting foreign investment. Less foreign investment + more capital flight means they'll have to use up reserves defending the ruble to keep inflation under control and even more so to keep their upper classes happy; they would like to continue to afford Western luxuries, I'm sure, and just as in any other third-world country - which Russia is as far as its economic relationship to the outside world - the upper classes have a vested interest in a strong currency in order to continue to afford foreign luxuries and trips (which is why the cutoff of Mastercard and Visa to Bank Rossiya clients was a hard slap; that woke them up and made them realize this excellent Ukrainian adventure might actually, you know, cost something to someone other than some dead Russian and Ukrainian soldiers and maybe a few dead and tortured Crimean Tatar scum. When the middle class gets hit, it's just like over here: everyone suddenly pays attention).
The fact a strong currency doesn't help develop the economy means nothing to them. In a country with a real industrial economy and a real industrial base, the opposite is true: see Japan for an extreme case.
So, in summary, Putin being a man who makes no bones about his sympathy for the elite, an elite he has largely chosen by wielding the considerable power of the state to make it friendly to him, he will continue the invasion by stealth.
The "federalist" thing is also right out of his homegrown fascist Alexander Dugin's playbook, Dugin and his Eurasian movement being the Russian equivalent of Ukraine's Right Sector and Svoboda - not that you'd ever know it from this place, but out in the real world, Dugin is known and his name is regularly mentioned in re this vomitacious situation as a man with quite a bit of influence over Putin's United Russia party. All you get around here is constant harping on Ukrainian neo-Nazis, but the far right loons in Putin's political movement? Around here, they don't exist.
Catherina
(35,568 posts)A group of several dozen protesters arrived at the base, located in the turbulent Donetsk region, on Wednesday evening.
They called on the troops to abandon the base, but the soldiers didn't listen, the demonstrators said.
Instead, the troops opened fire at the protesters, injuring at least four people. One of them took a bullet in his chest and is in serious condition, according to protesters.
...
http://rt.com/news/mariupol-base-shooting-ukraine-008/
The Magistrate
(95,237 posts)Some details of what occurred would be useful, as well.
joshcryer
(62,265 posts)They did this in Crimea. Send in a bunch of idiot locals who aspire to join Russia (nevermind the bullshit behind such a venture), have them break down the gates and, without weapons, walk in and ask for disarmament.
Then the armed thugs come in behind them and take the weapons. No one wants to shoot fellow citizens.
Human shields. That's what they're using. It disgusts me, especially if some of them got killed here, because that would be a tragedy, falling for the propaganda.
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,085 posts)You do know that was a paramilitary operation by armed militants, correct?
It's not as though they were carrying placards.