Russian trucks leave Ukraine as Merkel arrives for talks aimed at easing tensions

[bemildred]

Source: WaPo

KIEV — A convoy of Russian aid trucks that had escalated tensions between Moscow and Kiev by entering Ukraine without permission returned to Russia on Saturday as a Ukrainian military official alleged that Russians had loaded weapons and surveillance equipment onto the vehicles before they left.

Col. Andriy Lysenko, Ukraine’s military spokesman, said in a briefing that trucks that had entered the territory “under the guise of humanitarian convoys” had been loaded with Ukrainian-made equipment used to produce an advanced aircraft-tracking system, as well as ammunition for small arms, before they crossed back over the border Saturday morning.

The allegations came amid international outrage over Russia’s decision to send the aid convoy into Ukraine without the permission of the Ukrainian government and the support of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), an action that Ukrainians called a “direct invasion” and a “flagrant violation of international law.” Workers on the aid trucks, which had been stopped at the border for days, distributed food and other supplies to the besieged city of Luhansk in rebel-held territory Friday evening.

In addition, NATO said that Ukrainian troops have been coming under Russian artillery fire from inside their borders Friday — its strongest denunciation of Russia’s role in Ukraine to date — and a top Lithuanian diplomat was killed in ongoing violence. German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrived in Kiev on Saturday for talks with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in a show of support and effort to ease rising tensions.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-escalates-tensions-with-aid-convoy-reported-firing-of-artillery-inside-ukraine/2014/08/23/dbb76290-2a96-11e4-958c-268a320a60ce_story.html

[bemildred]

1. Ukraine Rating Cut by Fitch as East Conflict Hurts Growth

Ukraine’s credit rating was cut by Fitch Ratings, which cited a worsening economic outlook as the military conflict with pro-Russian separatists in the nation’s east curbs business activity.

The company lowered its assessment to CCC from B-, which signals a high risk of default. Only Argentina, which failed to make an interest payment last month, is rated lower than Ukraine among 104 countries Fitch tracks.

While the government has recaptured territory from the rebels, conflict may persist or intensify, delaying economic revival and damaging productive assets, Fitch wrote in a statement yesterday. Ukraine and its allies say the war is being fueled by Russian support for the insurgents, which President Vladimir Putin has denied.

“It’s an indication that the quality of debt has deteriorated,” Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps manage $17 billion at BB&T Wealth Managementin Birmingham, Alabama, said by phone yesterday. “It’s not a predictor, it rather reflects the current situation in the country as the economy declines and the currency devaluates.”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-08-22/ukrainian-credit-rating-cut-by-fitch-as-east-conflict-hurts-gdp

[bemildred]

2. Ukraine crisis: German leader says ceasefire needed, Kiev ready to work towards peace but not at cos

German chancellor Angela Merkel has called for Ukraine and Russia to agree to a ceasefire during her first visit to Ukraine since fighting erupted early this year.

Ms Merkel pressed Moscow to engage in a peace plan with Kiev and said success was not possible if only one side was interested in a diplomatic solution.

"There must be two sides to be successful. You cannot achieve peace on your own. I hope the talks with Russia will lead to success," Ms Merkel said.

"The plans are on the table ... now actions must follow."


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-23/merkell-says-ceasefire-needed-kiev-ready-to-work-towards-peace/5691964?section=world

[bemildred]

3. Five Reasons Why This Weekend Might Be The Start Of The Endgame In Ukraine

t's a risky business, attempting to predict the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine. But this weekend's Kyiv visit by German Chancellor Angela Merkel has stirred hopes that a resolution to the Ukraine-Russia standoff and the bloody fighting in Donbas may finally be near. We look at five of the key factors in play.

1. This Is Germany We're Talking About

A number of Western officials have already visited Ukraine since fighting erupted between the Ukrainian military and pro-Russian separatists in April. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

But none brings as much to the table as Merkel, who oversees the largest economy in Europe, dominates foreign policy debate in the European Union, and -- as a Russian-speaker raised in Communist East Germany -- enjoys a more informed working relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin than many of her EU counterparts.

Merkel's trip, which follows an invitation by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, is an obvious boost for Kyiv after months of flaccid EU interest. But the German leader has already set a tone of compromise. Speaking on August 18 in Riga, Merkel struck a delicate balance between the interests of East and West -- pledging a NATO response to any future Russian aggression in the Baltics or Poland but ruling out a permanent NATO presence in the region. Some media have speculated that she comes to Kyiv with a deal requiring gains and sacrifices on all sides.

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-russia-endgame/26543169.html

[bemildred]

4. Germany's vice-chancellor backs "federalisation" in Ukraine

BERLIN, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Germany's vice chancellor has spoken out for a "federalisation" of Ukraine once fighting between Ukrainian and Russian separatist forces in the eastern part of the country has ended.

Chancellor Angela Merkel said, however, that Sigmar Gabriel meant decentralisation.

His comments raised eyebrows because of his use of the word federalisation, which is a sensitive term in Ukraine.

In an interview with the Welt am Sonntag newspaper released on the same day that Merkel visited Kiev for talks on ending the crisis, Gabriel said the priority was to stop a direct military confrontation between Ukraine and Russia.

http://www.trust.org/item/20140823140604-gh1ps/

[cosmicone]

19. In the end, the Eastern provinces will get substantial autonomy

Last edited Sun Aug 24, 2014, 06:55 PM - Edit history (1)

which is what Putin wants.

If Ukraine decides to join the EU/NATO, the Eastern provinces can refuse and/or secede, leaving Russia's buffer intact.

CIA's actions were all for naught.

[VanGoghRocks]

37. But I was told in no uncertain terms that Putin is

"one of the leading fascists and imperialists in the world today" in another thread today.

Tell me Merkel isn't negotiating with one of the the leading fascists and imperialists in the world today.

Say it ain't so.

[The Magistrate]

5. I Suspect It Is Winding Down As Well, Sir

On strictly military grounds, I cannot see the secessionists lasting past September, absent overt Russian assistance on a large scale, which I strongly doubt is in the cards. About the only card Putin has left to play is 'mad dog'; a worry in European circles as to just what he really would do if Kiev achieved a solid and indisputable military victory to end the rebellion. Unfortunately it is often the case that forcing a settlement short of a decisive military conclusion only strengthens the itch to try fighting again, with one side sure it was not really beaten but rather sold out, and the other feeling sure it was cheated out of its victory, and each resolved to get it right this time.

I am intrigued by the claim of evacuation of high-end tools by the returning trucks, and with so much concentration on what was being actually delivered, questions of what they might take out went un-raised. But certainly there are many things it might be best for Putin to have absent from the secessionist's areas when the Ukrainians move in in a few weeks: possibilities range from bodies, alive or dead, through papers and traceable equipments....

[bemildred]

6. I remain skeptical about any quick resolution, Sir.

Like many other conflicts, one thinks it just cannot go on, and then it does.

[The Magistrate]

7. I Would Be The Last To Say I Am Never Wrong, Sir

But that is how I would bet today, at four for seven.

[newthinking]

8. Where is your logic "SIR"?

Let's use a little logic here. I know that the media like to get people to short circuit their intellect.

Since there is a huge border area still under rebel control; it is a ridiculous assertion that this convoy would be needed to remove anything.

It is better to think about these things because the media likes to get folks to react emotionally.

[The Magistrate]

9. Clearly You Have Never Tried To Move Contraband, Sir

A means you can be sure will not be touched by unfriendly hands, or exposed to prying eyes, is invaluable. Moving items across a contested border, using combatants, retains some element of risk, some chance of interruption or exposure. These trucks, moving openly, are inviolate; no Ukrainian force would ever assail them, no one will ever get close enough without vetting to see what might be in them on the return trip, right to their return to whatever depot they were drawn from. If I had a few dozen file cabinets, a couple hundred operatives, even a few score corpses I wanted to be sure no one who was not one of mine ever got a whiff of, the return leg of this convoy would strike me as ideal for the purpose; there would be no risk of exposure at all.

"An essential element of the art of camouflage is to give the enemy something riveting to look at, so you know where he is looking, because then you know where he is not looking."

[newthinking]

10. No, I haven't moved contraband. You have?

I still think it is a very silly idea. There are many trucks that move through the border their every day. And since the media and the Ukraine government is also claiming that Russia is an expert at moving these things through the border the other way it makes absolutely no sense that they would need this public method / grand chessboard way to do this (if they were doing it).

Why not just admit the obvious? That this was indeed a relief convoy and that is the purpose (and surely some good PR as well, russia needs good PR right?).

[The Magistrate]

11. Your Saying, Sir, You Think It A Silly Idea Hardly Argues Against It Being Worth Consideration

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."

[Brother Buzz]

12. I have it on double super secret background....

Putin was smuggling wheelbarrows.

[cosmicone]

20. and surplus cabbage patch kids and Playstation 4s. n/t

[newthinking]

22. The stories the media and players have propagated belong with "aliens ate my mother"

It amazes me that anyone here could even believe some of them. Goes to show how powerful internal bias can affect the mind.

[bemildred]

14. Ukraine accuses Russian aid convoy of stealing factory equipment

Job done, one hundred and eighty-four Russian trucks from an aid convoy that entered Ukraine yesterday have re-crossed the border back into Russia.

Ukraine says another eighty trucks remain in the country. The OSCE says they have all left.

Russia says the lorries were only carrying vital humanitarian supplies for the besieged cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, but many entered Ukraine empty. Kyiv refused permission for the convoy, believing it was a subterfuge for re-arming pro-Russian rebels, but then allowed it to proceed without interference. Now the government says it knows why there were so many empty lorries, and its suspicions have been confirmed.

“Our operational information tells us the trucks that came into Ukraine pretending to be a humanitarian convoy were used to load the “Topaz” production unit for the ultra-modern “Kolchuga” radar, and equipment from a factory in Luhansk that makes specialised ammunition magazines,” said the National Security and Defence Council spokesman Andriy Lysenko.

http://www.euronews.com/2014/08/23/ukraine-accuses-russian-aid-convoy-of-stealing-factory-equipment/

[The Magistrate]

18. It Will Be Interesting To See How It Shakes Out, Sir

The list suggested is interesting. Depending on how extensive production facilities are, it sounds like items whose absence could put a crimp in air defense. One wonders, too, if the tools were used mostly for production sold to Russia, or even supplied from Russia for use in building equipment exported to Russia.

[daleo]

35. Why send an empty truck, to return it filled with contraband?

It would make more sense to send the trucks with relief supplies, unload, then fill with whatever. Deadheading would just arouse suspicion.

I am not inclined to put much faith in what anyone says, when it comes to the situation. The fog of claims and counter-claims (lies and counter-lies) is hard to pierce.

[bemildred]

36. Yes.

"Fountains of bullshit", all of them, is the way I characterized it. The Kiev government is prone to hysterical outbursts, and the Russians and pro-Russians, while less hysterical, compensate by being more opaque and disorganized

[Igel]

13. There were three other separate reports about the trucks.

Not counting the usual discrepancy between what Russia says and what everybody else says. (In this case: Russia says that everybody got to examine the trucks and make sure they were empty; Ukraine says that they were prohibited from examining the trucks.)

The three reports I have in mind say that "the" Topaz plant, Yunost' plant, and the third from a Luhans'k munitions factory were essentially disassembled and their equipment removed. The first makes another electronics for some military equipment, the second specialized relays for avionics, and the third makes some standard munitions but also the company's own line.


Then there was the harder to deal with report that one truck stopped by a hospital at which it was reported Russian fighters were convalescing.

It's very WWII-like, where when E. Germany, officially under Soviet control, had been stripped of its industrial base. Since it was stripped by the Russians and moved to Russia, "looting" and "spoils of war" come to mind.

[bemildred]

15. See post #14.

Should be easy enough to verify, eventually.

[newthinking]

17. Nobody seems to have a good answer *why* such an elaborate ruse would even be needed??

It defies logic. I am surprised people even entertain the idea.

It is obvious that Ukraine is desperate, or losing perspective with their propaganda. The border is controlled by the Rebels. If they want to do this they don't need to do so this way. They would have been doing this quietly for weeks. Trucks can cross that border any time.

In fact, it makes no sense intellectually. Since there are OSCE observers at the borders there would be more risk in using these trucks as they have so much attention.

What is really astonishing, is how well outlandish propaganda claims that defy intellect and logic can actually get such traction in the predisposed mind. We see it even here.

[bemildred]

24. I'm not inclined to believe anybody much in this dispute, just watching and remembering.

Given the prevalence of profligate liars commenting profusely and profitably($) about this dispute, that seems the best approach to understanding what is going on. If you start believing what any of them say, before you know it you are off lost in the woods somewhere and trying to remember where you left your compass.

[The Magistrate]

25. The Sensible Course, Sir

Habits of mind formed when one just had to wait till tomorrow's morning paper came out to see even a first solid report are very useful in this sort of thing. I can remember places where it took the best part of day to get a long distance line....

[bemildred]

26. Well, you get wrapped up in it Sir, and then the confirmation bias just kills you.

The fact is politicians all have the morals of minks in heat, and any credibility you give them they will try to use against you.

[The Magistrate]

31. And Starting With An Ideologic Commitment, Sir, Only Makes It Worse

Some people start out deceived, and do all the liar's work for him, in advance and on tick....

[ballyhoo]

28. Where is post 14? A bunch of posts are missing. Did

a post and subs get canned?

[bemildred]

30. You appear to have someone on ignore. nt

[The Magistrate]

32. That'll Learn Him, Sir....

"None so blind as those who will not see."

[ballyhoo]

33. Okay. Thanks, bemildred.

[bemildred]

34. My pleasure. nt

[newthinking]

16. I assume from the Svoboda run Ukraine "Ministry of Truth"

They regularly make all kinds of incredible claims. They seem to be so enamored with their own propaganda that they can't recognize that their lies are a little too "creative" and thus they have a huge credibility gap.

But then, the voice of Ukraine (the government ministries) is pretty much controlled by Svoboda PMs and leaders. So it is not surprising that they would be a little out of orbit.

What is amazing is that Proshenko (and the other behind the scenes players) have not wrestled control and placed it into more "qualified hands". But then more moderate management might not be willing to threaten media outlets and reporters, nor may they be so willing to play loose with the truth.. or they may allow more balanced reporting of the humanitarian crisis in the east?

[cosmicone]

21. and some on DU are gullible enough to believe Svoboda, "Sir" n/t

[The Magistrate]

23. This Gets Tiresome, Sir

The foreign minister is Mr. Pavlo Klimkin.

The defense minister is Mr. Valeriy Heletey.

Prove to me they are creatures of Svoboda.

[newthinking]

27. This is one of PMs on the legislative committe on "freedom of speech"

These guys don't only work in the rada, but they travel the country and personally see to it that the media "behaves".

Like Oleh Lyashko whom Human rights organizations have warned Ukraine on, who roams the countryside with goons making his own brand of terror and "justice" freely. And the extremist oligrarchs who fund and recruit neo-nazi's and their created battalians of extremists.

You really need to become better read if you want to present an accurate contrarian position. Face it, you can find a few moderates (but right wing) to name, but overall the current Ukraine government is extreme right wing with way too much involvement of radical antisocial Social Nationalists (Neo-Nazi's).

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/19/ukrainian-mp-assaults-television-chief-pro-russian-miroshnichenko-panteleymonov

[The Magistrate]

29. Focus, Sir: Heads Of Ministry, Defense And Foreign

Old videos, long circulated, do nothing.

You were asked to prove the Minister of Defense and the Foreign Minister, Messers. Valeriy Heletey and Pavlo Klimkin, were Svoboda.

Continued attempts to do the equivalent of posting a Louis Gohmert clip to prove President Obama is owned by the Koch brothers will be taken as a frank and open confession you are just making ritual noises and bean breeze when you claim the Kiev government is controlled by Svoboda.