Ebola Worst-Case Scenario Has More Than 500,000 Cases

[B2G]

Source: Bloomberg News

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa could spread to hundreds of thousands more people by the end of January, according to an estimate under development by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that puts one worst-case scenario at 550,000 or more infections.

The report, scheduled to be released next week, was described by two people familiar with its contents, who asked to remain anonymous because it isn’t yet public.

The projection, which vastly outstrips previous estimates, is under review by researchers and may change. It assumes no additional aid or intervention by governments and relief agencies, which are mobilizing to contain the Ebola outbreak before it spirals further out of control in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

“CDC is working on a dynamic modeling tool that allows for recalculations of projected Ebola cases over time,” said Barbara Reynolds, a spokeswoman for the agency, in an e-mail. “CDC expects to release this interactive tool and a description of its use soon.”



Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-19/ebola-worst-case-scenario-has-more-than-500-000-cases.html

[B2G]

1. By the end of January.

That's 4 months from now. God.

[jberryhill]

3. That's as many people as normally die in three or four days

Around 150,000 people will die today.

While it is important to contain this outbreak, an excess 500,000 over a period of several months is not even background noise.

[B2G]

4. You can't possibly be serious

can you?

[jberryhill]

6. About how many people die every day? Does that sound like a joke to you?

150,000 people die every day. That's a simple fact. Saying "X" people will die of "Y" without some reference frame for whether X is a "big number" or a "small number" doesn't really mean a whole lot.

A good chunk of the people who die today will be killed by motor vehicles, respiratory infections, diarrhea and a good number of other preventable or treatable conditions.

A little over 3 million children will die of hunger this year. We've known how to treat hunger for a long time. And maybe someday we will get around to it.

What makes Ebola interesting is that it doesn't respect class boundaries. For example, while diarrhea is a top ten killer, it is primarily due to the fact that 783 million people do not have access to clean water and almost 2.5 billion do not have access to adequate sanitation. Those problems do not get urgent international attention because they don't affect people who have the means to address those problems on a systematic level.

So, yes, it is frightening to think that a small percentage of global deaths will be caused by something that money does not protect against.

Your post invoked "God" in relation to this cause because, I guess, God is not particularly concerned with the ones we can do something about and don't.

[B2G]

7. What do you think will happen

if we have 500K cases within the next 4 months?

There is no cure. At a minimum, 50% of those who contract it die from it. For you to compare this to hunger, motor vehicle deaths and treatable illnesses is incredibly naive.

[jberryhill]

9. I think it is going to follow the normal curve for this sort of thing

Tell me, what do these words, in my response you took issue with, mean:

"it is important to contain this outbreak"

Numbers compare to numbers.

Tell you what...

Let's make a deal right here. In 2016, we will look back and tote up the number of deaths from Ebola and from Diarrhea. If the number from Ebola is larger than the number from Diarrhea, I'll pay you $100 US.

I'll tell you something else. Huffing and puffing from concern on an internet forum won't do diddly to make either number larger or smaller.

But carry on with "one worst-case scenario at 550,000".

But then again, as I said, hunger is treatable. It kills an order of magnitude more people, and it's not as if we do what is needed to be done about that either.

The concern among people in the US is "but this is something that I could catch if exposed". So, yes, if there is something killing people which could kill ME then, of course, it is a crisis meriting the swiftest and most effective response, so that we can get things settled down to the millions of deaths which need not concern me.

[jberryhill]

11. Ah, now I'm naive

Okay, I'll show you who is more concerned about the situation.

Will you pledge to match my donation this month to Doctors Without Borders? Yes or no?

[B2G]

12. I donated to the Red Cross last month

But thank you for donating. MSF is a great org.

[jberryhill]

19. There are 25,000 cases, incidentally

http://apps.who.int/ebola/current-situation/ebola-situation-report-25-march-2015

[B2G]

20. Well that was a blast from the past. nt

[jberryhill]

21. We'll be doing it again this year

[Mojorabbit]

16. It is 500,000 chances for the virus to mutate.

That is one of my main concerns. I am following it closely.

[951-Riverside]

2. This is going to lead to a world wide round up and extermination of a people

If this thing starts spreading at that rate the Darren Wilson types in Military and Police are going to use this as an excuse to start rounding up and gunning down people of a certain race.

It won't be "I thought he was reaching for something", it will be "He was uncooperative and started coughing at me".

It happened during Katrina and that was just a Hurricane.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danziger_Bridge_shootings

[Demeter]

5. After calling it out-of-control

in the least-prepared continent, during a mad rush for Globalism,

this seems wildly optimistic, and it only goes to January, for a Worst-Case Scenario.

A 3 day suspension of freedom to travel, for an incubation time of 3 weeks or maybe more, is at best pointless.

[quadrature]

8. what is the current O/U from bookmakers?

my guess is 1 million

[jberryhill]

10. This IS a report from bookmakers

"one worst-case scenario at 550,000"

You are going well beyond the tail end of the curve with 1 million.

[jellen]

13. Who's responsible for this deadly disease?

I may be crazy but I think it's somebody like isis or whatever terrorist group is loose in Africa. You know, one of the bio-terrorists that we were told to beware of in Iraq.

[Earth_First]

14. Seriously with this?

I suggest you do some research on the history of the virus in Africa before you develop your thesis any further...

Ill even provide the first link:

The Chronology of Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever Outbreaks

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/resources/outbreak-table.html?mobile=nocontent

[NYC_SKP]

15. First, not everybody on DU is an expert. Second, stranger things have happened.

I think your reply is a good way to address the question, but I wouldn't blame a person for wondering.

Think of our own country's and others' history with developing biological agents.

[jberryhill]

17. This kind of thinking is why villagers attack aid workers

How many historical viral epidemics do you reckon were the result of a deliberate plan?

[jberryhill]

18. Update: New epidemic model says Ebola in Liberia 'could end by June'

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/287987.php