Ohio, Long a Bellwether, Is Fading on the Electoral Map

[riversedge]

umm.. I have always thought of OHIO as essential. I learn something new everyday.






Ohio, Long a Bellwether, Is Fading on the Electoral Map

By JONATHAN MARTIN




SEPT. 29, 2016


ATHENS, Ohio — After decades as one of America’s most reliable political bellwethers, an inevitable presidential battleground that closely mirrored the mood and makeup of the country, Ohio is suddenly fading in importance this year.

Hillary Clinton has not been to the state since Labor Day, and her aides said Thursday that she would not be back until next week, after a monthlong absence, effectively acknowledging how difficult they think it will be to defeat Donald J. Trump here. Ohio has not fallen into step with the demographic changes transforming the United States, growing older, whiter and less educated than the nation at large.

And the two parties have made strikingly different wagers about how to win the White House in this election: Mr. Trump, the Republican nominee, is relying on a demographic coalition that, while well tailored for Ohio even in the state’s Democratic strongholds, leaves him vulnerable in the more diverse parts of the country where Mrs. Clinton is spending most of her time.

It is a jarring change for political veterans here, who relish being at the center of the country’s presidential races: Because of newer battleground states, Mrs. Clinton can amass the 270 electoral votes required to win even if she loses Ohio........................

[RandySF]

1. Friday before election day 1992

Howard Fineman said on the McNeil-Leher News Hour that Ohio was slipping away from Bill Clinton. Four days later, Ohio put Clinton over 270 electoral votes.

[BlueStreak]

2. IOW, the Clinton strategy is to win by one electoral vote

and concede the Senate. No house of congress and no mandate doesn't sound like a very good recipe for governing.

Just 6 weeks ago, Clinton had huge leads in Ohio and Florida, was nearly even in Georgia, and was within single digits in Texas.

Now they are having to scramble to get back into contention in Iowa because Ohio seems like it may be a lost cause.

Am I the only one who thinks this is a very strange way to fight a campaign?

[brush]

3. Can't believe those polls, especially the right-leaning ones

Trump is going to lose badly.

[BlueStreak]

4. I have always said, watch the candidates' itineraries.

That tells the truest story. Clinton is pretty doggone close to writing off Ohio, but thinks she has a chance yet in Iowa.

Maybe the Electoral College calculus really has changed, but I don't like the sound of writing off Ohio, especially considering there is no real effort to get places like AZ, Arkansas, Missouri, or SC.

Meanwhile, look where Trump is headed in the next week:
NH, MI, PA, CO, AZ

If he is able to take any one of MI, PA, or CO, he can very definitely win this thing

[The_Casual_Observer]

5. His campaign is collapsing. The media is

Is shutting this down after the debate.
The Senate is going blue. The charade is coming to an end rapidly.
The next debate will be even a worse humiliation than the first for trump.This time the bar is raised for him, he has to actually show that he knows what he is talking about, the press will savage him.

[BlueStreak]

9. They tried to make a horse race to force Trump to buy a lot of ads

It doesn't seem that Trump is doing that, but they were able to get the Kochs into the game.

Now that the numbers are close, I could see the media getting more aggressive with Trump under the theory that the rest of the Party would push him into a big ad buy as a last ditch effort.

The thing to never forget is that when we are talking about the big networks, there is no news department, only an advertising department that sells space on "newsy" programs and sells every political ad they can manage to sell. They will slant their coverage as necessary to sell those ads. It is not different from the sitcoms. None of them are going for deep meaning. They will go with whatever they think will keep eyeballs on the screen long enough to take people to the ads.

Media = advertising.

[brush]

6. He's not winning. Too many women are against him.

Along with the rest of the Obama coalition of Latinos, blacks, gays, progressive whites, Asians, Native Americans and left-leaning independents.

And now some republicans.

AZ and TX are trending blue, she's way ahead in MI. They've already figured they don't need Ohio to get to 270.

Don't panic, Trump is a moron offending women left and right.

He loses badly.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. To win the Senate, Democratic efforts should be concentrated elsewhere

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/

There are 9 races closer than it. 538 has Dems winning 4 from incumbent Repubs, losing one to them (Nevada - on a knife edge), 3 within winnable margins (North Carolina, Missouri, and Florida) and one almost as hard to win as Ohio (Kentucky). To win the Senate, they need to concentrate on North Carolina, Missouri, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Florida.

So, no, not a 'strange way to fight a campaign'.

[BlueStreak]

10. That's a self-fulfilling (or self-defeating) strategy

Those are the senate seats in play BECAUSE the POTUS race is so narrow.

We were in much better shape when Howard Dean did a 50-state strategy, and we will never have a chance at the House again without that kind of very play-to-win strategy, versus the play-not-to-lose campaign we are seeing today.

[geek tragedy]

8. part of it is that the Ohio Senate race is such a disaster that there's no hope

Clinton can help lift the Democrat to victory there.

North Carolina and New Hampshire and Nevada are different stories. They even have a better chance at beating Little Marco in Florida than beating Portman in OH.

Also, poorly educated white men are not considered a swing constituency anymore. they're the Republican base.

[BlueStreak]

11. Good points

[greatlaurel]

12. This article is silly. Ohio will go blue unless it is stolen by Husted.

Ohio is very much in play for HRC. The campaign is working really hard here to find every Democratic voter and get them to the polls.

Furthermore, the national party screwed up by going dark with tv and radio ads for the senate race. Ted was kicking butt when the ads were running early. Portman could be hammered easily since he worked for Bush negotiating trade deals to ship Ohio jobs to China. Voters would change on a dime if they are shown what Portman did. Ohioans have no idea what Portman did to screw his fellow Buckeyes.

This article is setting the groundwork for stealing the vote in Ohio. Husted has already said he does not want Homeland Security in Ohio to protect the integrity of the vote. What is he trying to hide?