The Impending Afghan Defeat

[marmar]

from Consortium News:


The Impending Afghan Defeat
July 11, 2013

Frustrated over negotiations for a stay-behind force of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, President Obama is now weighing the possibility of a faster withdrawal and a “zero option” on troops going forward. That may signal the belated recognition of twin American defeats in the Afghan and Iraq wars, says Beverly Bandler.

By Beverly Bandler


Americans hate the word “defeat” but that is what we face in Afghanistan. After nearly 12 years, the longest war in U.S. history is winding down with an almost inconceivably staggering cost in blood, treasure and what economists call opportunity cost — the value of the best alternative forgone.

As Tom Engelhardt, author of The End of Victory Culture, wrote, “Leave the mystery of who beat us to the historians.”

Yet, while future historians may provide the details of the U.S. defeat in Afghanistan, one assessment is possible now: The United States was defeated most of all by its own arrogance and ignorance. The cause for this defeat was bipartisan, implicating both Democrats and Republicans, neoconservatives and neoliberals as well as hubristic officials at the CIA and tunnel-vision generals dispatched by the Pentagon.

The folly dates back more than three decades to 1979 when President Jimmy Carter’s hard-line national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski devised a plan to poke at the Soviet Union by helping Islamist mujahedeen warriors harass the Soviet-allied government in Afghanistan. Brzezinski hoped the provoked Russian bear would fall into an “Afghan trap.” ............................(more)

The complete piece is at: http://consortiumnews.com/2013/07/11/the-impending-afghan-defeat/

[Scootaloo]

1. We fell victim to the most famous of the classic blunders...

Never get involved in a land war in Asia!

[longship]

4. That's *inconceivable*!! nt

[DCBob]

2. Depends.. if the Taliban take over soon after we leave, then yes.. but not so sure that will happen.

Afghanistan is a much different place than it was 12 years ago. Education is the key.

[xchrom]

3. du rec.

[bemildred]

5. We are defeated, we are trying to negotiate our departure.

It is far from clear that we will get even that. One would think that would be the sensible thing, I know.

[Igel]

6. Huh?

The US wanted to negotiate a security force to stay behind. It assumed it would happen.

It set the staffing and equipment targets for the drawdown date to the security force level it assumed it would have in place. Why aim for zero if you are going to need 80k men and the materiel for them?

The US had conditions in addition to and tied to the security force presence. Karzai had other ideas. Given the US' conditions, Karzai said "no'." The US objected.

Only later did the US start to seriously consider the "zero option." If that's what's pursued, then the drawdown target isn't the security force level but zero. That requires a faster drawdown. Or having the US soldiers blow up all the equpment prior to being killed. Then we could continue at the same drawdown rate until the last few minutes.

People are really anxious to project their own wishes and suspicions onto events, aren't they?

[bluedeathray]

7. I disagree with this analysis

For one thing, we're NOT fighting a war. You can call it whatever you like. MIC conspiracy, Imperial expansionism, Hunt for Bin Laden, Attempt to build Afghan moderation... whatever.

This is my third military action. It's not a war. So tossing that misnomer out, I see many examples of dedicated Americans doing the best they can under what might be termed "austere" conditions. With a regular dose of violence thrown in. But one thing is for sure, Afghans have had a good taste of the materialistic, technical, consumer good laden lifestyle that America and its' allies (vassals?) brought here.

To me, the biggest variables seem to be the average Afghans' propensity towards non-violence, at least on a grand scale, and the willingness of the Afghan people (which make up many tribes that hold more significance to the average "Afghani" than Karzai's constitutional government) to accept Karzai and his bidding. Religious fundamentalism also plays a major role in the day to day life of Afghani life and politics.

So while the intrigue of nations may extend back through recent history, this does not equal defeat for America in any sense. And hell, who knows, the Afghan people might grow a set big enough to keep the Taliban at bay. They have numbers, and weapons.

That would be the closest thing we could expect to a "victory" in this huge Flustercuck!

Peace out.

[Diclotican]

8. marmar

marmar

The only empire (of sorts) who was able to conquering Afghanistan - and pacify it to a degree where afghans on paper would not rise against the over-lords was Alexander the Great - who with his Macedonian core troops - and a lot of other soldiers from all over the new greco-persian empire was able to conquer most of Afghanistan - and to hold it - by using methods I doubt any modern army would dream to use to pacify a country...

Afghanistan have been part of great empires before - the persians, the parthians - the muslims - the mongols - and then of course the muslims again - and then it have been used as a tool between other great empires - lawless in the middle but used by other powerfully nations - like the imperial Russia and UK, who had their own interest in that area - and got a bloody nose in the mid 1800s - and kind of let the afghans to their own after that - and then again it was from 1945, a staging area between the two superpowers - and was mostly used as a bounty between the two superpowers...

And then of course the war of 1979 (Christmas day) and 8 year later 1988 - and more than 15.000 dead russian soldiers - the USSR had to leave the country - after a rather painfully defeat against muhadejin - who in turn turned against each other - and for the nest decade a civil war between tribes and clans was raging the country...

And now is the US planing to get out of the country - one way or another - But I guess the defeat have been on the books long before the public got any sent of it... As it was under the Vietnam War in the 1960s - when McNamara was telling his president, that the war was lost in 1968! - but the was continued all up till 1975, after a painfully defeat and a evacuation who was less than perfect from the rooftop of the US embassy

Hopefully the US can get out of Afghanistan more easy than the russians - or the british did it..

But then again - if I had been a advice to the dumb and dumbs in 2001, I would have advised as strongly as possible to put soldiers on the ground in Afghanistan - as it is have a habit on just end up nasty - and maybe tried to explain for Bush jr what have happened with most of the others who have tried to conquering Afghanistan... Even if it was to take out OBL... As it was - Bush had no interest in OBL - and let it slide - for a decade...

Diclotican

[kenny blankenship]

9. It's very clear from Karzai's words and actions

that he is much more concerned with placating Afghanistan's once and future masters than he is with pleasing the United States. People pass him off as "erratic" but there is actually plenty of method to his madness.
Remember, this is not a new look for Hamid Karzai. :
Karzai Threatened to Join Taliban, Sources Say

http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-202_162-6365107.html
A heroin addicted puppet, President Karzai hopes to stay on as a figurehead after the US leaves, and he won't do that if he is our obedient puppet, taking our orders and directing the helpless Afghanistan national army at the Taliban. He can survive if he makes himself a useful tool to the forces that will remain in Afghanistan after the latest imperial power has thrown up its hands and gone home. His other option for survival is to disappear in the middle of the night, flying unscheduled and nonstop to Paris with a suitcase full of dollars and the bank books for his Swiss accounts.

We will leave Afghanistan like we left Iraq- apparent victors on the battlefield, but with our strategic aims suffering a total rout, and we will be weaker not stronger for having tried to show the world how strong we were.

[pscot]

10. Think of it as a brilliant, strategic

re-positioning of our forces. Applaud wildly.