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kristopher

(29,798 posts)
Wed Apr 16, 2014, 12:33 AM Apr 2014

The Solar Industry Has Been Waiting 60 Years For This To Happen

The Solar Industry Has Been Waiting 60 Years For This To Happen — And It Finally Just Did



It's now a question of how and where, not if, solar becomes a dominant force in energy markets.

AllianceBernstein's Michael Parker and Flora Chang published a note last week with the following chart showing how rapidly the cost of solar on a real-dollars-per-million-BTU equivalent basis has, in many instances, come to match that of conventional fuels.

Nothing else looks like this. And the title of the chart, Welcome to the Terrordome, reflects this almost violent decline in solar pricing.

The authors write:
Exhibit 2 is the chart the solar industry has been working towards for 60 years. Solar is now – in the right conditions – cheaper than oil and Asian LNG on an MMBTU basis. Yes, we are using utility- scale solar costs in developing markets with lots of sun. But that describes the growth markets for global energy today. For these markets solar is just cheap, clean, convenient, reliable energy. And since it is a technology, it will get even cheaper over time. Fossil fuel extraction costs will keep rising. There is a massive global market for cheap energy and that market is oblivious to policy changes at the NDRC, MITI, the EU or the CPUC.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/solar-price-terrordome-chart-2014-4
16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
1. If I understand that chart, the claim is that in 3 years, solar has dropped an order of magnitude in
Wed Apr 16, 2014, 01:00 AM
Apr 2014

dropped an order of magnitude in cost!? Pardon my skepticism, but all the data I have seen looks more like this rate of improvement, in other words, something like a 25% cost reduction in three years. Somehow I am just a teeny bit suspicious of a graph that shows virtually a straight line down for solar.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
6. Your chart doesn't speak at all to the OP.
Wed Apr 16, 2014, 05:30 AM
Apr 2014

I know you are using it to illustrate scale, but it doesn't even do that since the OP is writing about:

Exhibit 2 is the chart the solar industry has been working towards for 60 years. Solar is now – in the right conditions – cheaper than oil and Asian LNG on an MMBTU basis. Yes, we are using utility- scale solar costs in developing markets with lots of sun. But that describes the growth markets for global energy today. For these markets solar is just cheap, clean, convenient, reliable energy. And since it is a technology, it will get even cheaper over time. Fossil fuel extraction costs will keep rising. There is a massive global market for cheap energy and that market is oblivious to policy changes at the NDRC, MITI, the EU or the CPUC.


This is how you've made an inapt comparison:
They use utility solar, you use average solar
They use utility solar in developing markets, you use average solar in the US.
They use cost of power, you use average system costs.

There are a lot of other significant factors you are also overlooking. Since it doesn't take a lot of effort, if you are actually interested you'll want to figure those out. You might want to dive into the different sectors for solar (residential, non-residential, utility); as well as the various elements that go into "average costs", which ones have declined, and which ones need to fall.

BTW, looking at this chart the average system costs in the US between 2009 and 2012 went from just under $8 to just under $4 and dropped to under $3 in 2013. I believe that's a bit more than a 25% decline.


 

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
8. Does your chart intend to say that solar has gone from ~220 to ~20
Wed Apr 16, 2014, 01:50 PM
Apr 2014

in 3 years? I can't find any reference anywhere that says there has been such an improvement in the economics of solar power.

Please explain why the OP chart is not grossly misleading.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
9. So you make a baseless claim and I'm supposed to disprove it?
Wed Apr 16, 2014, 02:10 PM
Apr 2014

How about this - you substantiate that there is something wrong. You could, for example, provide a valid reference showing either the start price or the end price to be incorrect.

All you've shown so far is that you aren't really very diligent in your research and analysis. I haven't seen the original study, but I see nothing on its face that causes me to doubt the chart as it generally accords with trends I'm aware of and the source isn't given to hyperbole.

 

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
10. Chill man. I'm just trying to understand the chart YOU posted
Wed Apr 16, 2014, 02:59 PM
Apr 2014

It looks to me like the chart claims an order of magnitude improvement in 3 years. That presents 3 possibilities:

1) I have missed the news of a magnitude breakthrough about solar economics;

2) I am reading the chart wrong; or

3) The chart is misleading.

Just tell me which of the three it is.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
11. Chilling not required
Wed Apr 16, 2014, 03:25 PM
Apr 2014

Just do your own research and do it properly.

As far as I can see the article is valid and supports it's statements very well. You say you don't think it's valid and do nothing to support your statement. Other's can read the article and your comments and decide for themselves.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
12. 4.
Wed Apr 16, 2014, 05:32 PM
Apr 2014

You aren't reading the chart wrong, but utility-scale solar generation in sunny, developing countries is a completely different beast than putting some PV panels on your roof.

Utility-scale solar costs in the developing world were astronomical for two reasons: Technology costs, and availability of that technology. R&D in the developed world cut technology costs, and then R&D in the developed world made the technology much more available.

In the developed world, solar went from easy-to-get expensive things to easy-to-get reasonably-priced things.
In the developing world, solar went from very-hard-to-get expensive things to easy-to-get reasonably-priced things.

Think of it like cell phones: The developing world used to have to import them one-at-a-time. Buy them in the developed world, then ship them to the developing world. That availability vastly inflated the costs - DHL from Europe to Africa isn't cheap.

But then stores in the developing world started carrying cell phones, just like elsewhere. You go from one-off shipping of individual phones to Nokia filling a cargo container and sending it to local retailers. Availability goes waaaaay up, resulting in a much lower consumer purchase price.

 

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
13. So you are saying there has been a 90% reduction in costs in 3 years?
Wed Apr 16, 2014, 09:32 PM
Apr 2014

No point arguing about it. I just wanted to make sure I wasn't reading the chart wrong, and you confirmed I was reading it correctly.

msongs

(67,199 posts)
2. a smart politician would challenge the US to have solar on every suitable rooftop within 10 years
Wed Apr 16, 2014, 01:13 AM
Apr 2014

like the kennedy man on the moon thing. too bad there is nobody making this challenge today tho

LongTomH

(8,636 posts)
16. If they do the Koch Brothers, Exxon/Mobil, BP, and the like, will join forces to drive them......
Fri Apr 18, 2014, 03:00 PM
Apr 2014

.....out of office.

emsimon33

(3,128 posts)
4. We have 36 solar panels on our roof on the central coast of CA
Wed Apr 16, 2014, 01:40 AM
Apr 2014

Last month's bill was $2.30 for a HUGE three story house (each floor is the size of most regular houses) (I rent.)

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
7. Well hello, hello.
Wed Apr 16, 2014, 07:52 AM
Apr 2014

How have you been? It's an interesting title, isn't it? Here is another write up on the analysis that concentrates a bit more on the expected energy "price deflation" and what it means for fossil fuels.

Solar’s Dramatic Price Plunge Could Trigger Energy Price Deflation
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Solars-Dramatic-Price-Plunge-Could-Trigger-Energy-Price-Deflation

bananas

(27,509 posts)
15. "Welcome to the Terrordome" is a song by Public Enemy
Fri Apr 18, 2014, 02:21 AM
Apr 2014

It was on their 1990 album "Fear of a Black Planet"



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_of_a_Black_Planet



Fear of a Black Planet is the third studio album by American hip hop group Public Enemy, released on March 20, 1990...

<snip>

Fear of a Black Planet contains themes concerning organization and empowerment within the African-American community, while presenting criticism of social issues affecting African Americans at the time of the album's conception. Its criticism of institutional racism and White supremacy were inspired by Dr. Frances Cress Welsing's views on color.

<snip>

It has since been recognized as one of hip hop's greatest and most important albums, as well as being musically and culturally significant. In 2003, it was ranked number 300 on Rolling Stone's list of the 500 greatest albums of all time, and in 2005, the Library of Congress added it to the National Recording Registry.

<snip>

The album's artwork followed Chuck D's concept of two planets, the "Black" planet and Earth, eclipsing.[14] The group enlisted B.E. Johnson, a NASA illustrator,[14] to create the cover.[17] ...

<snip>

The controversial single "Welcome to the Terrordome" references the murder of Yusef Hawkins and the 1989 riots in Virginia Beach, and it has Chuck D criticizing Jewish leaders who protested Public Enemy in response to Professor Griff's anti-Semitic remarks.[36][58] He addresses the controversy as being in the center of political turmoil, with criticisms of the media and references to the Crucifixion of Jesus: "Crucifixion ain't no fiction / So called chosen frozen / Apology made to who ever pleases / Still they got me like Jesus".[10][40] He is also critical of Blacks and those who "blame somebody else when you destroy yourself": "Every brother ain't a brother / 'cause a Black hand squeezed on Malcolm X the man / the shootin of Huey Newton / from the hand of Nig who pulled the trigger".[40] His lyricism features dizzying raps and internal rhyme: "Lazer, anastasia, maze ya / Ways to blaze your brain and train ya … Sad to say I got sold down the river / Still some quiver when I deliver / Never to say I never knew or had a clue / Word was heard, plus hard on the boulevard / Lies, scandalizin', basin' / Traits of hate who's celebratin' wit Satan?".[42] Its dense production incorporates numerous samples,[59] including several James Brown tracks and the guitar line from The Temptations' "Psychedelic Shack".[42] Several other samples are heard amid Chuck D's rapping, such as the line "come on, you can get it-get it-get it" from Instant Funk's "I Got My Mind Made Up (You Can Get It Girl)".[42] Allmusic's John Bush cites the track as "the production peak of the Bomb Squad and one of Chuck D.'s best rapping performances ever … None of their tracks were more musically incendiary".[42]

<snip>

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