What I mean is this.…
Nowadays, in presidential elections, the majority of states which have also have scheduled U.S. Senate elections are seeing states carry for the same political party at both levels.
This is how people are now handling their voting.
I think it may have been this way in 2000. It was definitely the case in 2004 as well as 2008 and 2012.
There are usually at least 33 states with U.S. Senate elections on the schedule. What has happened since at least 2004 is that approximately 80 percent of the applicable states carried for the same party at both levels. (Meaning, between 25 to 27 of the 33 states’ voters gave same-party support at both levels.)
Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain potentially getting unseated, by Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, in Arizona is definitely connected with the state potentially becoming a Democratic pickup at the presidential level for Hillary Clinton. (This creates the potential for Arizona to flip from Republican to Democratic on both counts.)
States with long-term records of voting same-party carriage—U.S. President and U.S. Senate—are as follows:
• 1972: North Carolina. Its sole Democratic carriage, both levels, were the D pickups of Barack Obama and Kay Hagan (having unseated incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole) in 2008. If Hillary Clinton’s 2016 popular-vote percentage margin outperforms Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election margin of D+3.86 (as is already being indicated with numerous national and state polls which include, just as one example, the state of Arizona)…the first pickup state will be North Carolina. It is in position for Democratic pickups at both the presidential and senatorial levels in 2016. (And, for 2016, I’m also thinking—as some things happen in threes—Governor of North Carolina.)
• 1976: Wisconsin. From the last ten presidential elections of 1976–2012, only in 1980 did Wisconsin give Republican carriage at both levels: Ronald Reagan (who unseated Jimmy Carter and flipped this state) and Bob Kasten (who unseated incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Gaylord Nelson). All the rest applicable have carried Democratic. The state hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential nominee since Reagan was re-elected to the tune of 49 states and 525 electoral votes in 1984. (There was no U.S. Senate race that year.) Wisconsin is now a base state for Democrats—and this puts Ron Johnson, the incumbent Republican U.S. Senator who unseated then-incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Russ Feingold, in a hole. It is nealy 100-percent likely, with their rematch, that Feingold (who unseated Bob Kasten, in 1992, while Bill Clinton carried the state) will unseat Johnson here in 2016.
• 1992: Ohio. The quintessential presidential bellwether state, the presidential elections of 1992, 2000, 2004, and 2012 had scheduled U.S. Senate elections in Ohio. Democrats Bill Clinton (a pickup) and John Glenn (re-election) won in 1992. Republicans George W. Bush (pickup) and Mike DeWine (re-election) won in 2000. Republicans Bush (re-election) and George Voinovich (re-election) won in 2004. And Democrats Barack Obama (re-election) and Sherrod Brown (re-election) won in 2012. There is probably a 90-percent chance Ohio will repeat the pattern here in 2016.
So, frankly, this isn’t surprising about John McCain and Arizona. McCain was first elected to that seat in 1986, which was a midterm year in which the Democrats flipped majority control of the U.S. Senate in the sixth year of the presidency of Republican Ronald Reagan. In 1980, Barry Goldwater, who held that same seat, severely underperformed his re-election margin vs. how Reagan carried the state. That told Goldwater to not seek re-election in 1986. McCain had no such warning. But, in reality, and the fact that he will turn 80 in August, it looks very much like that 1986 decision from Barry Goldwater should have also been the case for a 2016 John McCain.
= new reply since forum marked as read
