Braley Up A Whopping 15 Points With Early Voters In Iowa

[progressoid]

In a poll released Wednesday by the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, Rep, Bruce Braley (D-IA) holds a commanding lead with early voters in Iowa’s open US Senate race... http://www.politicususa.com/2014/10/29/democrat-bruce-braley-whopping-15-points-early-voters-iowa-senate-race.html

The poll we just completed with a representative sample of 802 Iowa voters is consistent with the findings of polls by CBS News/New York Times and Loras College that the race between Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst is a dead heat. Among those who either have already voted or are likely to vote, 47% are for Bruce Braley and 47% are for Joni Ernst. The remaining respondents either express a reference for someone else or decline to state a preference.

Bruce Braley 46
Bruce Braley (lean) 1
Joni Ernst 45
Joni Ernst (lean) 2
Other 1
Not sure/refused 5

Twenty-eight percent of respondents report that they have already voted; of those, 54% report they voted for Braley and 39% report they voted for Ernst. The party registration of those who have already voted is 41% Democrat and 40% Republican, and Braley leads in the votes already cast because of a distinct advantage with registered independents.

The party registration of the sample overall is 35% Democrat and 39% Republican. Among voters who are not registered in either party, Braley leads overall by 51% to 41%.

The interviews for this survey were conducted by telephone, including both landlines and cell phones, between October 25 and October 27, 2014.

http://b.3cdn.net/braley/5d5d6eb65a20d13127_lbm6b5bfe.pdf

[JustAnotherGen]

1. I'm crossing fingers for you guys

I googled Iowa Senate race and "Newsmax" - came up first at about 10:30 this morning.

I have a feeling the Republican party is going to be completely whooped in Iowa.

[progressoid]

3. Thanks.

It's going to be a close one.

[cyberswede]

2. I hope that's enough to make a difference.

*fingers crossed*

[Bettie]

4. I have to say

Dems have been really diligent at getting people registered to vote by mail.

I'm hoping that will up the turnout significantly.

I'll be very ashamed to be an Iowan if Ernst is sent to the Senate...as if Steve King weren't embarrassment enough.

[slumcamper]

5. I'm guardedly optimistic, however--

while Dems have indeed been diligent in the absentee ballot by mail effort, a devil potentially lies in the details.

The absentee ballot is rather complicated in that it demands very careful adherance to instructions on the part of the voter. For example, the inner envelope includes a box in which to indicate party, but this is only to be marked in primary elections. Unlike us political junkies, I would venture that some voters don't draw a technical distinction between primary and general elections, or simply mark a box because it seems intuitive to do so. Depending on the nature of local auditors or boards, this detail may be seized upon by partisans as grounds for contestation of a ballot. And if a voter doesn't seal the outer secrecy envelope, the ballot is toast.

Absentee balloting by mail inherently creates much greater potential for "spoiled ballots." Of course, this would ostensibly cut both ways. One might argue that the problem could be worse for elderly and low information voters. This should be studied.

Regarding the disposition of contested ballots, taken in the context of a concerted GOP campaign to suppress Democratic voters this matter suggests important lessons for Democrats: ensuring fair elections and minimizing such folly requires that we run good candidates at the county and state auditor levels. Additionally, a serious presence on boards of election is essential, and vigilance must be exercised at all times. And better organized party workers and volunteers undertaking the absentee ballot effort should make it a point to clearly instruct voters on the importance of following the letter of the instructions. As Bush v. Gore showed, "clear intent of the voter" is not sufficient grounds for determining the viability of contested ballots. (In retrospect, it seems that this ruling established a legal precedent that actually makes voter suppression at the local and county levels considerably easier)

It's not my intention to tamp down optimism or be a prophet of electoral doom. The point is that (a) I distrust any and all Republicans who have anything to do with our elections at any level, (b) these issues will exist in 2016 and (c) we better begin thinking about addressing them now, for GOP voter suppression intentions remain alive and well in our statehouse in concert with Iowa GOP tactics.