Revised Crystal Ball 2016 Electoral College ratings for a Clinton vs. Trump matchup

[KewlKat]

I heard some talk about this map so I googled and thought I'd share it here. Perhaps you all have seen this? Looks like a landslide for Hillary..........what do you think?




This is MAP2 found on this site.

The new map, as you will see, does not show a close and competitive general election. The Republicans now find themselves in a deep hole.

Yes, more than seven long months remain until the election, and all kinds of unexpected twists and turns can occur. Sure, we don’t know the shape of the economy or terrorism, or the precise job approval rating of President Obama in the autumn, or the gaffes and scandals that may yet unfold on our way to the ballot box. But goshdarnit, there’s finally a pause in the non-stop primary calendar, and we’re going to take advantage of that!

Our new map is one that will evolve, maybe substantially, after the conventions. Remember that independent and/or third-party candidates could change the calculus. Nonetheless, here is our extra-early, ridiculously premature projection of the Electoral College map in a possible Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump matchup. Yielding completely to boldness, or recklessness, we eliminated Toss-ups, and leaned all states to one or the other nominee. Each state’s electoral history, developing demographics, and current polling data guided our choices.

[Thinkingabout]

1. I wish Texas would return Blue, it has beennl before and perhaps again in the future.

[yeoman6987]

3. Hillary should NOT underestimate Florida.

I would not have that in the light blue but more of an even color. Hillary will have to spend time in Florida to win it.

[GvilleDem]

7. Florida redrawn

Florida is a blue state, but gerrymandering skews our representation. They redrew the maps recently which favored dems a little. Additionally, Rick Scott remains wildly unpopular and continues to hurt red electability here. Florida is also a diverse state, which hurts republicans, anf its also a very hispanic state, which hurts Trump. I'd make it more blue.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

11. All my Latino friends and co-workers are pissed as hell. Florida could become the new California.

California used to be a solidly Republican state (Reagan, Nixon were governors) but then Pete Wilson pissed off all the Latinos (threatening to deport them, etc.). They have never forgotten and California has been solid blue ever since.

[BootinUp]

2. my conservative guess is Hillary will win by a little less

of a margin than shown above. But I think its not going to be far off.

[bluestateguy]

4. I hope the Hillary people go after North Carolina hard

and Arizona and Georgia. Will she win all 3 of those states? Probably not, but she could take one or two. And make Trump campaign to win there.

[Jitter65]

5. I think TN, AZ, and W.VA might surprise. nt

[KewlKat]

9. I lived for 20 yrs in AZ leaving in 2002

I didn't meet many Dems while there but I was usually rural. I'm sure the political scheme may have changed since leaving. i hope so.

[beachbum bob]

6. tell you the truth....I think the margin will be greater....as voters run away from trump in mass

[KewlKat]

8. What I'm hearing on the boob tube is

10% will turn from drumpf to Hillary but I'm also hearing that 10% of BSSers will turn from BS to drumpf.

[Politicub]

10. At least Georgia is not as deep maroon

Maybe we will make it into the blue column in a few years.