Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumClinton has amassed a higher share of intra-party support before the Iowa caucuses than any presiden
So far no hoax on Friday the 13--only grand news
10:13 AM Nov 13, 2015
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-is-the-most-establishment-approved-candidate-on-record/?ex_cid=538twitter
Hillary Clinton Is The Most Establishment-Approved Candidate On Record
By Harry Enten
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton acknowledges supporters after filing papers for the New Hampshire primary on Monday in Concord.
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton acknowledges supporters after filing papers for the New Hampshire primary on Monday in Concord.
Jim Cole / AP
Its become a running joke that Im in the tank for Hillary Clinton. Whenever Ive written anything that suggests Clinton has a very good chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination, fans of the other Democratic candidates have let me hear it on email, Twitter and Reddit. Ive written these pieces not because Im rooting for Clinton or am in the pocket of the corporations,1 but because Clinton is in a strong position to win a historically strong position.
On the eve of the second Democratic debate, taking place Saturday, heres the latest evidence for that fact: Clinton has amassed a higher share of intra-party support before the Iowa caucuses than any presidential candidate2 since 1980, as far back as our data goes.
FiveThirtyEight tracks the endorsements of members of Congress and governors because they are highly correlated with the outcome of the primary. In the book The Party Decides where the strong correlation between endorsements and primary outcome was clearly demonstrated the authors point out that there are basically two types of primaries: Ones in which a single candidate wins the party over before Iowa (like in 2000 on both the Democratic and Republican sides) and ones in which most party actors stay on the sidelines until voting begins (like in 2008 on both sides). The former is very predictable; the latter is far more unpredictable and can produce a number of possible winners.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)When one candidate is showing in the polls as Clinton there is not a lot to leave to the imagination. Complaints of Clinton getting more media time than the other candidates, it might have something to do with the number people who wants information who is running in the majority.
Clinton has listened to citizens and is moving the information into her agenda. You don't gather this information by shouting.
Tommy2Tone
(1,307 posts)It's historical.