538 ~ Bernie Sanders Is Even Further Behind In Votes Than He Is In Delegates

[Her Sister]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-is-even-further-behind-in-votes-than-he-is-in-delegates/

Bernie Sanders’s supporters are fond of the hypothesis that Democratic superdelegates, the elected leaders and party officials who currently support Hillary Clinton by a lopsided-doesn’t-even-begin-to-describe-it 469 to 31, are going to bow to the “will of the people” if Sanders ends up winning more pledged delegates than Clinton by June. There’s just one hiccup in this logic: Sanders fans seem to be conflating the pledged delegate count and the “will of the voters,” when in fact the two are far from interchangeable.

Sanders’s reliance on extremely low-turnout caucus states has meant the pledged delegate count overstates his share of votes. To date, Sanders has captured 46 percent of Democrats’ pledged delegates but just 42 percent of raw votes. So even if Sanders were to draw even in pledged delegates by June — which is extremely unlikely — Clinton could be able to persuade superdelegates to stick with her by pointing to her popular vote lead.

Sanders already has a nearly impossible task ahead of him in trying to erase Clinton’s pledged delegate lead. He’s down by 212 delegates, meaning he’d need to win 56 percent of those remaining to nose in front. He has dominated caucus states such as Idaho and Washington, but only two caucus states — Wyoming and North Dakota — remain on the calendar. What’s more, the biggest states left — New York and California — favor Clinton demographically.

Including caucus results, Clinton leads Sanders by almost 2.4 million raw votes, 9.4 million to just more than 7 million, according to The Green Papers. So then, what would would it take for Sanders to overtake Clinton in the popular vote by the end of the primaries in June?

Pretty long explanation in the link

[pandr32]

1. I absolutely detest that Sanders is presuming to speak for the American people

He brings it up constantly as that: 1.) he knows what the American people overwhelmingly want and need, and 2.) that he has their support.
NO!!! He is grandiose and insufferable. A fad of idealistic and naive young people joining the political process has gone completely to his ego.

[Cha]

5. That's how he was when he wanted President Obama Primaried in 2012.. he said Millions of

Americans were disappointed in him because blah blah blah.. he was being disingenuous as usual.

Gawd I cannot wait until he's done.

Aloha, pandr

[pandr32]

7. Aloha Cha, and you are right on!

[Her Sister]

2. While the difference of 212 delegates is difficult to close

the difference of 2.4 millions voters is close to impossible!!!

The will of the people plus Math!!

[upaloopa]

3. Looks like Hillary is the real people's candidate.

Sorry Bernie folks but reality doesn't match your bluster

[Cha]

4. Well, that's another good thing to know about this race, HS.. thank you! And, Thanks

all the voters who have voted for her and will vote for her!

[DemonGoddess]

6. MATH FTW!

[yallerdawg]

8. I saw a superdelegate yesterday.

Kansas City Mayor James. See video at: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/

He said his role as a superdelegate is the democratic process of supporting and persuading others to support the candidate of your choice regardless of how primary voters vote.

It's all about the delegates at the convention, and start to finish he would support Hillary! Votes and electability and all these other issues are secondary to who you believe to be the best candidate - just the same as when we go to vote!

[Staph]

9. I am one of those rare folks who are still undecided for the primary.

West Virginia doesn't vote until late May.

However, I get so irritated by the Sanders supporters who point to their candidate's overwhelming success in the caucus states. I want to remind them that the first Tuesday in November is Election Day, not Caucus Day. Without the peer pressure of the caucus process, Democrats are voting for Hillary!