Prediction. The Bern will burn out after NY and concede.

[Maru Kitteh]

Math. It's painfully obvious now he has no real hope of securing the nomination. After NY, a state his own campaign has declared a "must win" is complete, it will move out of the realm of the untenable and become clearly impossible.

He will bow out. Look for him to be in Vermont on election night. He is tired. He is walking slower, his voice tattered, he has lost his ability to govern his behavior. He leans on the podium more and his posture has sunk. He now actually looks like a tired old grandpa.




Yes that's right Bernie, go rest. Exit stage left

[liberal N proud]

1. Surely someone has already presented him with the math

Or are they that delusional to think that the numbers are going to change? Their little attempt to do that in Nevada didn't do much.

How can it keep going?

[LiberalFighter]

11. They won't present him with the math until

they have milk everything they can from the campaign.

[pandr32]

22. I agree--they spin the math

Just like he was given a headline only, and then over-reacted. He is being pumped up by his managers.

[Walk away]

25. I think Weaver is already taking over. Bernie doesn't look so good.

I predicted this two months ago and received a couple of hides for my trouble. If he flies to Italy and back before NYS he is going to be a mess by the primary. He would never have made it through to November.

[allan01]

2. can i fucking vote yet? im in cali (yes i am lazy) we didnt have our primary yet.

[Maru Kitteh]

4. Of course you can.

But he won't be in the race. If you are upset about when your state votes, lobby your state party. Assuming you have one.

[NastyRiffraff]

5. If it makes you feel better

my primary in MD is after yours...April 26. But early voting starts on the 14th, and I'll be there!

[Ellen Forradalom]

35. No I think you vote first

if you vote in April.CA's primary is June 7.

[NastyRiffraff]

36. Sorry, you're right

My bad

[Walk away]

26. I live in New Jersey! Bernie will back at Ben & Jerrys headquarters...

long before I get to vote!

[Squinch]

27. Well, no you can't. Because you live in California. And it is possible that the primary will be

decided before California's primary date, in which case your vote will be moot. That is how this works.

And we are allowed to discuss probabilities before your state votes. That's how it works too.

[NastyRiffraff]

3. I hope you're right

but I'm afraid you're wrong. Bernie doesn't care about the math. Yes, he surely knows it. But he doesn't care about the will of the people...the only people he cares about as far as the nomination goes are his supporters. His campaign has already said, very clearly, that they plan to contest delegates at the convention.

I hope someone talks some sense into Bernie, if that's possible. But I don't see it happening, because he listens to no one.

[Maru Kitteh]

6. Right now he's like a caged animal that still knows the cage has a door.

It's about to be welded shut. I don't think we'll see him for a little while after NY, but I do think he will begrudgingly endorse Hillary and may even eventually surprise us with actual assistance.

But I'm an incurable optimist. Don't try to save me. It's useless.

[spooky3]

32. I'm with you in that I don't think he'll concede soon.

And ironic as it may seem, I think money has a lot to do with it. As long as $ keep flowing in, even if he begins a streak of losses in the big states, the campaign will continue, though it may be scaled back.

[BlueMTexpat]

39. +1! eom

[WhiteTara]

7. I truly doubt it.

This is not an easy primary and it will continue on through the convention. I just hope we don't burn the house down.

[Treant]

8. No way

If the money's still flowing, Bernie's going to be there no matter how steep the cliff gets.

The PA/MD combo the next week is more likely to cause him to drop out, but even then...if the bucks are still coming in, expect him to move forward.

I actually don't expect him to be out until after California and DC, right at the end--and even then, he may hold on in the delusional hope that the supers or pledged delegates will leave Clinton en masse.

[LiberalFighter]

12. Late April or early May

[Treant]

29. When does the cash peter out?

Until then, I expect his advisers to keep pushing him along. Those paychecks have to last four long years, after all.

[spooky3]

33. agree

[artyteacher]

9. me and my significant other are hoping...

The night of our primary in NJ put HRC over the top!

[Chichiri]

10. Would be nice, but I really don't think so.

I think Devine and Weaver simply won't let him, and I think they have more influence over him than anyone at this point would care to admit.

[fleabiscuit]

13. That might depend a lot on momma bear.

Don't know anything about her really, but if she's anything like mine those effers would get a carate chop if hubby is hurting.

[book_worm]

14. Not likely--he will take it on to the convention. His ego won't allow him to concede

he will say he owes it to his supporters to keep the issues alive and get a Bernie approved platform.

[geek tragedy]

15. there will be a re-assessment at the end of April.

he's not dropping out--he has too much money.

but the kind of race he runs will probably change once any hopes of winning are utterly crushed.

[LiberalFighter]

16. I'm wondering how much more of this he can endure

without ending up in the hospital. There is too much travel and activity I think for him. It has to be adding up.

[Maru Kitteh]

18. Bingo. He's looking positively shredded.

I think he'll use his remaining treasure chest as a bargaining chip. He may have a metric shit-ton of cash yet on hand but he also has staggering expenditures and I doubt those are fully accounted/paid yet.

And then there's his taxes . . .

[NurseJackie]

21. The word I'd use is "haggard" ...

I've always believed that the job itself might be too much for him ... and if he's showing this much wear and tear during the primary, then it's frightening to think about whether or not he'd be able to withstand an actual presidency.

[Walk away]

28. Wait until Italy!

I used to do one or two day turnarounds to Europe for my job and they were killer! I was in my 30s and flying business class but I would have to sleep twelve hours when I'd get home.

[mainstreetonce]

17. I can see the burn

It's happening....two more weeks or so.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

19. Yep

[winga222]

20. Money for his team might be a factor

I'm not sure if Bernie's team has a different compensation method than many campaigns. But on a lot of campaign, campaign managers, advertising/communication managers, etc., are get a cut of the advertising spend. On Romney's campaign, I'm pretty sure I read that they used the old ad agency commission model of 15%, which really adds up. So, if you drop $5MM in Wisconsin, for instance, there's $750,000 being split by a handful of people. Why in the world would they ever counsel him to pull out, as along as the money is flowing? To be clear, I have absolutely no idea how his management team is compensated. And it's all completely above board and in fact sort of a traditional model. But it would explain why no one is sitting the man down for the hard talk.

[drray23]

23. I dont think so

He has too much ego to admit defeat. He will drag it to the convention. His advisors will make sure they milk
all the money they can before this is over.

Tad devine's consulting outfit just netted $810,211.44
just for the month of march. Thats a lot of $27.00 donations..

details of Sander's campaign spending for march:

http://docquery.fec.gov/pres/2016/M3/C00577130/B_PAYEE_C00577130.html

[drray23]

24. for more information on campaign disbursements

You can go there and look at all the campaigns and what they spend their money on , broken down per month and payee.


http://docquery.fec.gov/pres/

[ronnykmarshall]

30. Nope ... not gonna happen

He'll be in until the end.

Which means I'll have to deal with his supporters here in LA. I HOPE that they try and canvas on my street and come to my door. We have two Hillary yards signs, another sign on our door and our car both have Hillary stickers. I would LOVE for them to come to our door.

[IamMab]

31. Bernie doesn't quit until Tad Devine looks at his bank account and says, "Enough."

In other words, this one is going to run until the last primary, because Tad doesn't get commission on states with no ad buys.

[Godhumor]

34. He's in it through June

Too big of a platform for his message (And for his ego) to drop out before he is forced out.

[ronnykmarshall]

37. Soon ....

[url=https://flic.kr/p/FH9SUm][img][/img]

[livetohike]

38. LOL Ronny! Just watched "The Wizard of Oz" last night.

Good one!

[Maru Kitteh]

40. Hi Guys! I was being yuuuuge-ly optimistic with this post but

what if I was right?

CNN: Sanders leaving the campaign trail tomorrow...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1783818

MSNBC: "Sanders campaign leaves without press corps."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511784604

[Tarheel_Dem]

42. He sounded raspy when I heard him earlier. I mean, he's 73, and probably does need a rest. n/t

[Maru Kitteh]

43. well maybe he should charter a jet to Thailand and see if he can meet

with Yul Brynner?

[Tarheel_Dem]

44. !!!

[Tarheel_Dem]

41. He can't back out before CA. His "supporters" won't allow it, and neither will Jeff Weaver. n/t

[Koinos]

45. The campaign is out of control.

We are witnessing a slow train wreck in progress.

Sanders' character flaws are catching up with him, and his handlers want the money to keep flowing in.

This is classic Shakespearean tragedy. I don't think he grasps what is really happening. It is like King Lear's "blindness" with regard to people and events.

People who appear to be his friends, are his enemies. People who appear to be his enemies, are his friends.