The Walls Are Closing in on Venezuela’s Chavismo

[Zorro]

In what just may be the longest train wreck of the 21st century, the movement known as chavismo is on the brink of another major crisis as Venezuelan voters head to the polls on Dec. 6 to ostensibly elect a new legislature. Ostensibly, because Venezuelan governments under the late authoritarian President Hugo Chávez, and today his loyal, but hapless, successor Nicolás Maduro, have developed a habit of turning sure electoral defeats into “surprising” victories.

By any objective measure, chavismo — a blend of political and economic centralization and virulent anti-Americanism — has made a wreckage of the country. Venezuela suffers the world’s highest inflation rate, estimated at upwards of 200 percent, while the IMF expects the country’s economy to shrink by as much as 10 percent this year. Plunging oil revenues due to the collapse in international prices have gutted government spending. As one analyst told the Financial Times, “Venezuela is running on fumes. The current oil income is insufficient to allow the country to pay its debts, fund its imports, and service its foreign bonds.” Violent crime, smuggling, and corruption are staples of daily life.

It is with no exaggeration that the Miami Herald headlined the pre-election environment as one of “scarcity, mistrust, and chaos.” The turmoil has taken its toll on Maduro’s legitimacy and popularity. The polling firm Datanalisis reports the opposition maintains a 30 percent lead over the ruling party for the upcoming elections, while a Venebarómetro poll found that the government’s approval rating dropped from 50 percent in 2013 to 20 percent this past September.

And things continue to get worse for Maduro. Last week, two nephews of his wife were arrested in Haiti and flown to the United States to face charges they conspired to ship 800 kilograms of cocaine to the Unites States. Those arrests follow a Wall Street Journal report last May that U.S. law enforcement agencies are investigating high-ranking members of the Venezuelan government, including National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, for their suspected roles in drug trafficking and money laundering.

http://news.yahoo.com/walls-closing-venezuela-chavismo-163418133.html

[MADem]

1. Oh how the mighty have fallen....Maduro is "Manuro" at long last... nt

[COLGATE4]

2. I'm still convinced that he either 1) isn't going to

let the election go forward (think 'national crisis', 'presidential assassination attempt, etc,) or, if it does come off and by some wild stretch of the imagination the majority (opposition) actually wins, will then 2) employ some quasi-judicial maroma to see that the new 'government' will only govern the public latrines of Caracas.

[MADem]

3. The Mustachioed Dictator...!

If he tries that, he can expect trouble. Even the Chavistas are turning against him.

Also, a LOT of his "muscle" comes in the form of CUBAN soldiers who augment the "VZ" National Guard. I wouldn't be surprised if those guys are called home (if they haven't been already). Normalization with the US is good for Cuba--bad for MADURO (though VZ will ultimately benefit).

[COLGATE4]

4. I agree that a whole lot depends on whether Cuba

will continue to support him or not. It may well be that, with the new rapprochement between Cuba and the US that Castro decides to let Maduro sink or swim. However, VZ is still supplying Cuba with oil which represents a lot of dollars to them so who knows. He may figure he can still milk it for a few months or a year's worth for the time being. Maduro will in all probability lose whatever maneuver he might try to stymie election results but I don't think he's smart enough to know enough to quit while he's still ahead.

[MADem]

5. Cuba has oil offshore. They know that we are skilled at getting at that stuff.

A lot of other countries came looking when that was initially revealed, but I haven't heard much about them going after it. There's a lot of untapped potential there:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Cuba

I am not particularly a fan of offshore drilling, but there is a geopolitical element at play here.

[Zorro]

6. I would not be surprised if Manuro wins ugly

Gotta Bolivarian revolution to maintain, ya know.

[COLGATE4]

7. I wouldn't be surprised, either. I think he's too

stupid to know it's time to go and too enamored with the power to do the right thing for the country. I'm sure he's convinced that HE is the Bolivarian Revolution. My money is on 'winning' the Chavista way...

[joshcryer]

8. Delaying the election might work but only temporarily.

My guess is he'll take the loss, call it due fascists, and find some way to neuter winners over time. MUD will take their seats joyously and then one by one the winners will be stripped like they did with MCM.

The polls are not looking in PSUV's favor at all. I know polls in Venezuela are normally garbage, but the spread is massive.

[COLGATE4]

9. It's going to be interesting, for sure. nt