STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Thursday, 1 August 2013

[Tansy_Gold]

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, 1 August 2013[font color=black][/font]

SMW for 31 July 2013

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 31 July 2013
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Dow Jones 15,499.54 -21.05 (-0.14%)
S&P 500 1,685.73 -0.23 (-0.01%)
[font color=green]Nasdaq 3,626.37 +9.90 (0.27%)


[font color=green]10 Year 2.49% -0.03 (-1.19%)
30 Year 3.58% -0.03 (-0.83%) [font color=black]


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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.










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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]

[Demeter]

1. Two impossibilities Unlike two negatives, don't make a possible.

I don't know what will happen (yet), but I'd bet money that wasn't it. The Prim and Proper Republican is not going to be President.

[jtuck004]

2. ... n/t

[tclambert]

3. That's like two wrongs don't make a right

but three lefts do.

[Fuddnik]

4. Two wrongs for sure.

[jtuck004]

5. The End.

The below is the intro from a John Mauldin newsletter, written by a third person about the ideas of Robert Gordon..

...
Gordon's thought, about which he has given at least one TED talk, perhaps more, and the subject of a book he is writing, is that the inventions that allowed us to move off the farms and created such abundance are over, were one time events that are not likely to be repeated, that we have literally lived through the best it had to offer, they will not be repeated, so it will be a slow decline from now on out.

Don't know if I think that is true, having lived in a country which taught that "exceptionalism" line since that first doc slapped me on the butt, that surely we will invent a way out of this. But it is certainly possible for at least the lifetime of anyone reading this that we will watch a slowly declining country as it burns up what"seed corn" it has left, only to find there is nothing to plant with when someone, perhaps not us, figures out it's really not going to get better.

Someone once stated in the Economics forum here that they were going to start asking politicians how they would manage no growth (without Wednesday's revision our GDP may have been less than 1%), and we cannot sustain a country on that, given that our current model says we either grow or die. I never heard any more about it, (and I cannot remember the poster's Internet Identify, and I can't find the OP), perhaps because the consequences would be too hard to imagine? I can't imagine a politician daring to even speculate about what we would do if that were the case, yet, if that is our future, we better hope they are giving it some thought.

Still, here we are, on what may be the brink. Just as an assumption, think about what that kind of future holds for us, and what we, as individuals, need to, or can, change, to make it at least liveable for each other, and while we are doing that the inequality we see today becomes even worse and becomes even greater as it feeds on itself. And us..

The Blip

Dr. Robert Gordon is a professor of economics who has held a named chair at Northwestern University for decades; but as the author of this piece says, “[T]he scope of his bleakness has given him, over the past year, a newfound public profile.” Gordon offers us two key predictions, both discomfiting. The first pertains to the near future, when, he says, our economy will grow at less than half its average rate over the last century because of a whole raft of structural headwinds.

His second prediction is even more unsettling. He thinks the forces that drove the second industrial revolution (beginning in 1870 and created largely in the US) were so powerful and so unique that they cannot be repeated.
...
He thinks, in short, that we do not understood how lucky we have been, nor do we comprehend how desperately difficult our future is going to be.
...

The Blip

By Benjamin Wallace-Wells

New York magazine, July 21, 2013

What if everything we’ve come to think of as American is predicated on a freak coincidence of economic history? And what if that coincidence has run its course?
...

I borrowed this from Ritholtz.com, here.

The full story is at nymag.com here.

[Fuddnik]

17. I'm surprised more people don't get this.

You can't have infinite growth or expansion in a finite world. We probably have peaked, and conservation, either forced or by choice is the future. But, nobody wants to hear that.

[DemReadingDU]

18. Other than forums, I haven't found anyone to discuss this

It's sad, because when this ponzibubble bursts, lots of people are gonna find out real quick that growth can suddenly stop.

[Fuddnik]

20. I think it's already stopped.

Fudged numbers keep up the illusion of growth. Unemployment is still at historic numbers, even though we're supposedly years into a recovery. If you subtract people retiring and others leaving the work force, you still have an unemployment rate at the 2008-2009 highs.

The only growth is the Ponzibubble created by the 1/10th% fighting over the spoils.

edit: Just my opinion. I could be full of shit.

[Hotler]

25. I've been thinking the same thing. Sometimes it is........

more than just a thought. Sometimes it is a deep feeling. That is what makes me say "I have no hope. I see no future."

[jtuck004]

26. Dang it all, if we could just find something or someone else to exploit... n/t

[xchrom]

6. Fed Chairman Search Expanded by Obama Mention of Kohn

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-01/fed-chairman-search-expanded-by-obama-mention-of-kohn.html

President Barack Obama has opened up the contest to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, adding former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn to the list of names he’s considering.

At a closed-door meeting with Democrats in the U.S. House, Obama yesterday rejected the notion that it’s a two-person race between former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and current Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen to succeed Ben S. Bernanke, whose term expires Jan. 31.

Then, in a separate meeting with Democratic senators, Obama said he has interviewed “lots” of candidates, including “many whose names have not been mentioned” in the press, said Senator Richard Durbin of Illinois, the chamber’s No. 2 Democrat.

By expanding the public list of potential nominees, Obama is seeking to defuse the tension of a perceived Summers-Yellen contest, which threatens to limit his options, according to a person familiar with the matter. Yesterday, 37 House members sent a letter to Obama urging Yellen’s appointment. Last week, 19 Senate Democrats and one independent did the same.

[Demeter]

21. It's a One Person Race: Janet Yellen

No need to hunt around for a malleable flunky bankster...put a real working woman in office.

[xchrom]

7. Obama Calls Summers Criticism Unfair in Capitol Meeting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-31/obama-says-summers-being-unfairly-criticized-lawmakers-say.html

President Barack Obama, asked about former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers as a candidate for Federal Reserve chairman, said Summers is being unfairly criticized in public debate about the selection, lawmakers said after a private meeting with the president.

In the meeting today with House Democrats, Obama also named former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn and current Vice Chairman Janet Yellen as potential nominees to lead the central bank, said a Democratic aide who sought anonymity to discuss the private session.

The president “took a minute to stand up for Larry Summers,” said Representative Brad Sherman of California, following the meeting with House Democrats. Obama then met with Senate Democrats, and afterward Majority Leader Harry Reid said party members in his chamber will support the president’s choice for the Fed, “no matter who it is.”

Obama told House Democrats he hadn’t decided whom to appoint as Fed chairman -- though he said Summers was being unfairly criticized, Sherman said. People familiar with the search had previously said Summers and Yellen were the two leading contenders to replace Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, whose term expires Jan. 31.

[Demeter]

22. There's Nothing Unfair about the Criticisms of Summers

Obama is willfully blind to his best buddies' flaws, even when they aren't criminal.

[xchrom]

8. OPTIMISM OF WHITES IN US LAGS BLACKS BY BIG MARGIN

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_AP_POLL_RACIAL_GAP_OPTIMISM?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-08-01-03-31-29

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Americans' attitudes about their economic future are sharply divided by race, with whites significantly less likely than blacks or Hispanics to think they can improve their own standard of living. Indeed, optimism among minorities now outpaces that of whites by the widest margin since at least 1987, a new analysis shows.

The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research analysis shows that after years of economic attitudes among whites, blacks and Hispanics following similar patterns, whites' confidence in their economic future has plummeted in the last decade. Blacks and Hispanics, meanwhile, have sustained high levels of optimism despite being hit hard in the recent recession.

The findings come as President Barack Obama seeks to promote a broader message of economic opportunity amid a rising gap between rich and poor. The AP reported this week that 4 out of 5 U.S. adults have struggled with joblessness, near poverty or reliance on welfare for at least part of their lives, with white pessimism about their economic future at a 25-year high. More than 40 percent of the poor are white.

The AP-NORC analysis of data from the General Social Survey, a long-running biannual survey conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago, found just 46 percent of whites say their family has a good chance of improving their living standard given the way things are in America, the lowest level in surveys conducted since 1987. In contrast, 71 percent of blacks and 73 percent of Hispanics express optimism of an improved life - the biggest gap with whites since the survey began asking.

[xchrom]

9. German Manufacturing Index Hits Highest Level In 18 Months

http://www.businessinsider.com/german-pmi-2013-8

Another decent manufacturing report from Europe. This time it's Germany.

The latest PMI reading came in at 50.7, well above last month's 48.6.

This was the highest level in 18 months.

Here's a summary from Markit:



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/german-pmi-2013-8#ixzz2aiOj5sZy

[xchrom]

10. Italian Manufacturing Expands For The First Time In 2 Years, As Exports Surge

http://www.businessinsider.com/italian-pmi-2013-8

This is a very nice report from Italy.

The country's latest PMI reading indicated the first expansion in 2 years, thanks to strong export orders.

The reading of 50.4 was above last month's 49.7.

From Markit, here's the quick dish.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/italian-pmi-2013-8#ixzz2aiPOLLU8

[xchrom]

11. SPANISH PMI CONTRACTS

http://www.businessinsider.com/spanish-pmi-2013-8

Spain's manufacturing has contracted again.

The latest PMI report is in at 49.8, down from 50.0 in the previous month.

Here's the basic summary, from Markit.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/spanish-pmi-2013-8#ixzz2aiPsTaIP

[xchrom]

12. The Australian Economic Nightmare In One Chart

http://www.businessinsider.com/australia-exports-and-orders-slump-2013-7



Australia's commodities-driven economy surged when China's economy was accelerating and importing commodities like crazy.
And now it's getting slammed with China's economy decelerating.

"Make no mistake - the Australian tide is going to be heading way out as China is about to have what our economist Wei Yao described as its' Minsky moment', or in layman's terms, its day of reckoning!" warned Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards. "But even before China suffers this 'moment', final demand in the commodity dependent Western Australia (WA) has fallen into recession.

Earlier today, we got confirmation that things were still ugly in Australia. The country's manufacturing PMI tanked to 42.0 in July from 49.6 a month ago.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/australia-exports-and-orders-slump-2013-7#ixzz2aiS9RDeT

[xchrom]

13. China manufacturing activity sees mixed data

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23527177

China's manufacturing sector saw mixed fortunes in July, underlining concerns of a slowdown in its economy.

The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which surveys bigger firms, rose to 50.3 in July from 50.1 in June.

However, HSBC's PMI, which tracks smaller firms, fell to 47.7 from 48.2 in June. The PMI is a key indicator of manufacturing activity and a reading below 50 shows contraction.

This is the third month in a row the HSBC reading has been below that level.

[xchrom]

14. Bank of England holds rates at 0.5%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23532321

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has left interest rates at 0.5%.

It has kept the key borrowing rate at that level since March 2009.

The MPC also said it would make no change to the £375bn of monetary stimulus it is providing through its quantitative easing programme (QE).

Unlike last month's interest rate announcement, the first under the new Bank governor, Mark Carney, the MPC made no further comment on policy,

[xchrom]

15. IMF says Greece must deliver reforms at a faster pace

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23517820


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Greece needs to take more action to promote growth and deliver promised structural reform.

On Monday it backed the next payment of 1.7bn euros (£1.5bn: $2.3bn) after its fourth review of the country.

But now it says Greece must deliver "rapidly on structural reforms to unlock growth and create jobs",

It also pointed to a potential 10.9bn euros "financing gap" over the next two years.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

16. ETA News Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (08/01/2013)

Source: Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration

Read More: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20131529.htm

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending July 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 326,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 345,000. The 4-week moving average was 341,250, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average of 345,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending July 20, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 20 was 2,951,000, a decrease of 52,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,003,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,026,000, a decrease of 500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,026,500.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 279,869 in the week ending July 27, a decrease of 60,084 from the previous week. There were 312,931 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
....

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending July 13 was 4,695,366, a decrease of 154,140 from the previous week. There were 5,964,451 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2012.

== == == ==

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I ask you to put aside your differences long enough to read this post. Following that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

This week we have a decrease of 19,000. The moving average went down too.

I have been posting the number every week for at least a year. I seriously do not care if the week's data make Obama look good. They are just numbers, and I post them without regard to the consequences. I welcome people from Free Republic to examine the numbers as well. They paid for the work just as much as members of DU did, so I invite them to come on over and have a look. "The more the merrier" is the way I look at it.

I do not work at the ETA, and I do not know anyone working in that agency. I'm sure I can safely assume that the numbers are gathered and analyzed by career civil servant economists who do their work on a nonpartisan basis. Numbers are numbers, and let the chips fall where they may. If you feel that these economists are falling down on the job, drop them a line or give them a call. They work for you, not for any politician or political party.

The word "initial" is important. The report does not count all claims, just the new ones filed this week.

Note: The seasonal adjustment factors used for the UI Weekly Claims data from 2007 forward, along with the resulting seasonally adjusted values for initial claims and continuing claims, have been revised. These revised historical values, as well as the seasonal adjustment factors that will be used through calendar year 2012, can be accessed at the bottom of the following link: http://www.oui.doleta.gov/press/2012/032912.asp

[DemReadingDU]

19. WooHoo, look at these markets!

Maybe this is the parabolic runup before the crash

[Demeter]

23. In August?

Somebody went for a power play: dollar up, market up, oil up again, gold down. Means nothing.

[Demeter]

24. Modern Information Management