How to Sound the Alarm
A group of risk experts is proposing a new framework and research agenda that they believe will support the most effective public warnings when a hurricane, wildfire, toxic chemical spill or any other environmental hazard threatens safety. Effective warnings are a growing need as expanding global populations confront a wide range of hazards.
Right now, "the potential for errors is high" when officials decide when to issue emergency warnings, who to send them to, and what safety measures to urge the public to take, says Thomas Cova, a professor in the University of Utah geography department.
That's because "researchers tend to focus on one or two of those questions," Cova says. "But it's a challenge to think about all three," which is necessary to avoid such errors as deciding the right time and right action but wrong target group or the right group and right time but wrong protective action, he adds. Emergency managers must contend with uncertainty about how the three components interact, and have to consider how likely and how costly it might be to make "false positive" decisions to issue a warning when hazards don't occur or "false negative" decisions to continue normally when hazards do occur.
Cova and colleagues have published a paper called "Warning triggers in environmental hazards: Who should be warned to do what and when?" that proposes a way forward in improving emergency warning by thinking constructively and critically about all three issues. The paper, published in the online version of Risk Analysis, a publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, was co-authored by Cova with colleagues Philip E. Dennison, Dapeng Li, and Frank Drews, also of University of Utah, as well as Laura K. Siebeneck of University of North Texas and Michael K. Lindell of University of Washington.
http://www.sciencenewsline.com/news/2016072614400074.html
