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On Renewable Energy and Climate, Trump Voters Stand Apart
http://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1292&context=carsey[font face=Serif][font size=5]On Renewable Energy and Climate, Trump Voters Stand Apart[/font]
Lawrence C. Hamilton
[font size=3]Globally, 2016 was the warmest year on record, surpassing records set in 2015 and 2014,¹ and each new record emphasizes the longer-term upward trend. Though not every place on Earth experienced warming effects last year, they were quite evident in many areas. Rising South Pacific sea temperatures caused the largest die-off ever recorded of the coral that composes Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, and both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice reached record lows for several months of the year. Among scientists looking at such data, there is overwhelming agreement that human activities are shifting Earth’s climate in hazardous directions, and urgent actions are needed to slow this down.² Among U.S. politicians and the public, however, there remain wide divisions on whether human- caused climate change is real, whether scientists agree, and whether anything should be done.³
Though climate change received little media attention during the 2016 presidential campaign, recent surveys indicate that climate change and related energy issues are taken seriously by a growing majority of the public. An example is shown in Figure 1, which charts responses to climate-change and renewable-energy questions from a post-election Polar, Environment, and Science (POLES) survey carried out by Carsey School researchers in November–December 2016. The sample comprised 707 adults from all 50 states.⁴
Sixty-five percent of respondents think that climate change is happening now, and it is caused mainly by human activities. Only 28 percent think it is happening but caused mainly by natural forces; 3 percent think climate change is not happening; and 4 percent say they don’t know. Seventy-three percent think that increased use of renewable energy should be a higher U.S. priority, compared with just 21 percent who prioritize more exploration and drilling for oil. The percentage who think humans are changing the climate, or renewable energy should be a priority, are both slightly higher on this post-election survey than they were on a survey done just before the election.
Although climate and renewable energy received limited attention during the campaign, candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both addressed these topics in their platforms. Figure 2 breaks down the climate-change responses of each candidate’s supporters along with other voter groups.⁵ Only 25 percent of those who say they voted for Trump agree with the scientific consensus that human activities are changing Earth’s climate. In contrast, large majorities not only of Clinton voters but also of third-party voters and nonvoters agree with this view. This nonvoter result is notable because in the U.S. population nonvoters make up a larger group than any candidate’s supporters.⁶ The “voted but not for president” group, on the other hand, is small both among all voters and among our survey respondents—only 6 out of 707, so their high percentages in Figures 2 and 3 must be read with caution. The other groups, however, range from 47 to 241 people, and display similar patterns in the pre-election POLES survey as well (another 704 interviews), lending more confidence to our conclusions about them.
…[/font][/font]
Lawrence C. Hamilton
[font size=3]Globally, 2016 was the warmest year on record, surpassing records set in 2015 and 2014,¹ and each new record emphasizes the longer-term upward trend. Though not every place on Earth experienced warming effects last year, they were quite evident in many areas. Rising South Pacific sea temperatures caused the largest die-off ever recorded of the coral that composes Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, and both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice reached record lows for several months of the year. Among scientists looking at such data, there is overwhelming agreement that human activities are shifting Earth’s climate in hazardous directions, and urgent actions are needed to slow this down.² Among U.S. politicians and the public, however, there remain wide divisions on whether human- caused climate change is real, whether scientists agree, and whether anything should be done.³
Though climate change received little media attention during the 2016 presidential campaign, recent surveys indicate that climate change and related energy issues are taken seriously by a growing majority of the public. An example is shown in Figure 1, which charts responses to climate-change and renewable-energy questions from a post-election Polar, Environment, and Science (POLES) survey carried out by Carsey School researchers in November–December 2016. The sample comprised 707 adults from all 50 states.⁴
Sixty-five percent of respondents think that climate change is happening now, and it is caused mainly by human activities. Only 28 percent think it is happening but caused mainly by natural forces; 3 percent think climate change is not happening; and 4 percent say they don’t know. Seventy-three percent think that increased use of renewable energy should be a higher U.S. priority, compared with just 21 percent who prioritize more exploration and drilling for oil. The percentage who think humans are changing the climate, or renewable energy should be a priority, are both slightly higher on this post-election survey than they were on a survey done just before the election.
Although climate and renewable energy received limited attention during the campaign, candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both addressed these topics in their platforms. Figure 2 breaks down the climate-change responses of each candidate’s supporters along with other voter groups.⁵ Only 25 percent of those who say they voted for Trump agree with the scientific consensus that human activities are changing Earth’s climate. In contrast, large majorities not only of Clinton voters but also of third-party voters and nonvoters agree with this view. This nonvoter result is notable because in the U.S. population nonvoters make up a larger group than any candidate’s supporters.⁶ The “voted but not for president” group, on the other hand, is small both among all voters and among our survey respondents—only 6 out of 707, so their high percentages in Figures 2 and 3 must be read with caution. The other groups, however, range from 47 to 241 people, and display similar patterns in the pre-election POLES survey as well (another 704 interviews), lending more confidence to our conclusions about them.
…[/font][/font]
