Troubling New U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (Thru 1/31/13)

[Redlo Nosrep]

Lotta brown on this map:



I realize the word "tendency" is used in the description, but why wouldn't ongoing and upcoming rains ease the drought in the "Persistence" areas?

If your state is in the brown area, please educate me. I'm amazed at how widespread an area will probably still be in drought as the New Year starts.

And look at those Hawaiian Islands -- wow!

[Redlo Nosrep]

1. Here is the Accompanying Text and Discussion For This Release

Excerpt about Sandy's effects on the drought:

An extratropical transitioning Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the mid-Atlantic coastline, bringing devastating storm surge, strong winds, and widespread rainfall to the region. Areas of drought along the Delmarva and the Northeast were wiped out over a period of three days, while significant improvements were made to lingering drought regions in the Ohio Valley. As the remnants of Sandy continue to drift across the northeastern quadrant of the nation, further drought reduction is expected. During the week 2 period, a new storm system is forecast to develop across the Midwest and traverse the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Based on this short term wetness, continued drought improvement is expected for the small remaining drought areas of the mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley. Forecast confidence for the mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley is moderate to high.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-01/u-s-seasonal-drought-outlook-for-nov-1-to-jan-31-2013-text-.html

[NickB79]

2. The Great Lakes states will become the new breadbasket of the US

And the old breadbasket? Don't ask

[AverageJoe90]

6. Maybe not yet.

It is possible, however, that the Great Plains may see semi-permanent(on human timescales, though, not geological) drought conditions kinda like how it was before settlers farmed the land in the long term.

There may be crops that can still grow fairly well there, though. Hemp, anyone?

[NickB79]

3. The Persistence region is so dry, even moderate rain can't ease the drought

They're in a very, very deep hole with regard to soil moisture. It would take exceptional rain and snowfall to break the cycle in only one season.

[hatrack]

4. Since there are no longer any withered cornfields for cameras to pan . . . .

. . . . it would appear that the continuing and massive Plains & Midwestern drought no longer exists.

Sadly, not true:

[Redlo Nosrep]

5. And Here's the Palmer Drought Indices from NOAA

The Palmer Index is most effective in determining long term drought—a matter of several months—and is not as good with short-term forecasts (a matter of weeks). It uses a 0 as normal, and drought is shown in terms of minus numbers; for example, minus 2 is moderate drought, minus 3 is severe drought, and minus 4 is extreme drought.

Long-term cumulative meteorological and hydrological maps: