Worst Case Climate Projections Likely: Study

[xchrom]

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/11/09


“When examining the impact of future increases in heat-trapping gases, we find that the simulations with the best fidelity come from models that produce more warming,” says study co-author Kevin Trenberth. (photo: Horizon2035 via flickr)

The worst case projections for global warming may be the most likely, according to an analysis from scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).


The NASA-funded research by NCAR scientists John Fasullo and Kevin Trenberth was published Thursday in the journal Science.

Fasullo and Trenberth analyzed how 16 leading climate models reproduce observed relative humidity, a major influence on global temperatures, focusing on the subtropics.

[immoderate]

1. Link doesn't. This one is better...

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/11/121108-climate-change-clouds-science-model-relative-humidity/

--imm

[AverageJoe90]

6. Link deleted.

(Immoderate pointed out that the scientists in the study cited known anti-AGW 'skeptic' Roy Spencer, a fact that I had unintentionally overlooked when first browsing the document. In the interest of maintaining intellectual honesty, I've decided to eliminate the link.)

[immoderate]

9. That they cite Roy Spencer sets off alarms.

Spencer is a major denier. He is funded by Exxon, Heartland Institute, Marshall Institute, Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation, and other think tanks that deny global warming.

I didn't disassemble their thesis, but clouds provide both a negative and positive feedback for warming. In any case this information is suspect.

Here's an interesting source, though a bit dated.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/maps.php

Also check out books, presentations by Naomi Oreskes who has investigated those think tanks.

--imm

[AverageJoe90]

10. Thanks for the heads-up, then.

I must have overlooked the Spencer thing somehow.

[dipsydoodle]

2. Is that the link you meant to use ?

Spanish unemployment.

[xchrom]

3. that'll teach me to have more than 1 window open at a time.

i fixed it.

[dipsydoodle]

5. Done that myself before

[xchrom]

4. sure. spanish unemployment is the root of all modern woes. nt

[joshcryer]

7. I would love to read the study.

If anyone wants to hit me up [e-mail]

edit: looks like it'll be available here sometime soon: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Staff/Fasullo/index.html

[joshcryer]

8. Supplimentary materials here:

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6108/792/suppl/DC1

Science Mag link: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6108/792.short

Title of the study is, "A Less Cloudy Future: The Role of Subtropical Subsidence in Climate Sensitivity."

[joshcryer]

11. Fasullo was kind enough to send me the paper.

This helps illustrate what they expect to happen. Equatorial regions will get hotter and brighter, with less clouds. There won't be an appreciable increase in clouds in higher latitudes.