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OKIsItJustMe

(19,938 posts)
Wed Dec 3, 2014, 09:56 PM Dec 2014

2014 on course to be one of hottest, possibly hottest, on record—Exceptional heat and flooding in …

http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/2014/December/CRU-warmest-year
[font face=Serif][font size=5]Human influence important factor in possible global and UK temperature records[/font]

Wed, 3 Dec 2014

[font size=4]Early figures from the University of East Anglia (UEA) show 2014 is on course to be one of, if not the warmest year on record both globally and for the UK.[/font]

[font size=3]Recent research from the Met Office suggests breaking the existing global and UK temperature records is much more likely due to human influence on the climate.

[font size=4]Early figures suggest global record possible[/font]

The global mean temperature for January to October based on the HadCRUT4 dataset (compiled by the Met Office and UEA’s Climatic Research Unit) is 0.57 °C (+/- 0.1) above the long-term (1961-1990) average. This is consistent with the statement from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) today.

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https://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_1009_en.html
[font face=Serif]Press Release No. 1009

For use of the information media
Not an official record


[font size=5]2014 on course to be one of hottest, possibly hottest, on record
Exceptional heat and flooding in many parts of the world[/font]

[font size=3]Lima/Geneva, 3 December 2014 (WMO) - The year 2014 is on track to be one of the hottest, if not the hottest, on record, according to preliminary estimates by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This is largely due to record high global sea surface temperatures, which will very likely remain above normal until the end of the year. High sea temperatures, together with other factors, contributed to exceptionally heavy rainfall and floods in many countries and extreme drought in others.

WMO’s provisional statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2014 indicated that the global average air temperature over land and sea surface for January to October was about 0.57° Centigrade (1.03 Fahrenheit) above the average of 14.00°C (57.2 °F) for the 1961-1990 reference period, and 0.09°C (0.16 °F) above the average for the past ten years (2004-2013).

If November and December maintain the same tendency, then 2014 will likely be the hottest on record, ahead of 2010, 2005 and 1998. This confirms the underlying long-term warming trend. It is important to note that differences in the rankings of the warmest years are a matter of only a few hundredths of a degree, and that different data sets show slightly different rankings.

The high January to October temperatures occurred in the absence of a full El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO occurs when warmer than average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific combine, in a self-reinforcing loop, with atmospheric pressure systems, thus affecting weather patterns globally. During the year, sea surface temperatures increased nearly to El Niño thresholds but this was not coupled with an atmospheric response. However, many weather and climate patterns normally associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were observed in many parts of the world.

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