China's Energy Future: Less Solar and Wind, More Nuclear and Hydro

[FBaggins]

While most of the energy-related news last week focused on the anniversary of the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami — and the accident at Japan's Fukushima-1 nuclear plant that was a result of this natural disaster — across the Sea of Japan, China announced plans for the future: accelerate nuclear, while putting the breaks on solar and wind.

China will accelerate the use of new-energy sources such as nuclear energy and put an end to blind expansion in industries such as solar energy and wind power in 2012, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao says in a government report published on March 5.

That's not to say that renewable energy will be left out. On the contrary, China intends to expand renewable energy to 11.4% of China's energy consumption by 2016. Hydroelectric will play the largest roll in this expansion, contributing two-thirds to this target and adding 20 GW of new installed capacity, which is expected to cost about $21.7 billion. Other renewables, like wind and solar, will continue to contribute and expand, but they will take a back seat to nuclear power and hydroelectric in China's new energy plan. Why? Although their deployment has been very rapid in recent years, their performance has been dismal. In the opinion of one energy insider:

... China will pay more attention to the utilization of new energy, hence wind power and solar power, which failed to achieve sound utilization, will bid farewell to the era of fast development, said Zhai Ruoyu, former general manager of the China Datang Corp., one of China's five power giants.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/13/1074145/-China-s-Energy-Future-Less-Solar-and-Wind-More-Nuclear-and-Hydro

A better title would be "Less Emphasis on Solar and Wind" as they clearly will continue to grow the sector rapidly. Just not as rapidly.

[kristopher]

1. What was actually written

We will improve and upgrade the industrial structure. We will promote the sound development of strategic emerging industries. We will accelerate the establishment of mechanisms that promote the use of new energy sources; strengthen overall planning, auxiliary projects and policy guidance; and expand domestic demand. We will prevent blind expansion in our capacity to manufacture solar energy and wind power equipment. We will develop next-generation information technology, strengthen network infrastructure, and make substantive progress in integrating the telecommunications network, the radio and television broadcasting network, and the Internet. We will energetically develop the high-end equipment manufacturing, energy conservation, environmental protection, biopharmaceuticals, new-energy vehicles, and new materials industries. We will increase funding for technological upgrading projects, and press ahead with the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. We will control increases in production capacity, improve existing production facilities, encourage enterprise mergers and reorganizations, and increase industrial concentration and economies of scale, with the focus on the automobile, steel, shipbuilding, and cement industries. We will implement and improve policies to promote the growth of small and micro businesses, further reduce burdens on enterprises, and promote the vibrant growth of small and micro high-tech enterprises. We will implement fiscal, taxation, and financial policies that facilitate the development of the service sector and encourage nongovernmental investment in this sector, in order to promote faster development of the sector, increase its share in the economy, and facilitate its upgrading.

We will conserve energy, reduce emissions, and protect the ecological environment. The key to conserving energy and reducing emissions is to save energy, improve energy efficiency, and reduce pollution. We will promptly formulate and promulgate a work plan for appropriately controlling total energy consumption, and move quickly to base the energy pricing system on the market. We will use economic, legal, and the necessary administrative means to conserve energy and reduce emissions in key areas such as manufacturing, transportation, construction, public institutions, and people's homes, and in 1,000 key energy-intensive enterprises; and close down more outdated production facilities. We will tighten supervision of energy use, develop smart power grids and ensure the proper distribution of energy supplies, and implement effective administrative practices such as efficient electricity generation and distribution, energy performance contracting, and government procurement of energy-efficient goods and services. We will optimize the energy structure, promote clean and efficient use of traditional energy, safely and effectively develop nuclear power, actively develop hydroelectric power, tackle key problems more quickly in the exploration and development of shale gas, and increase the share of new energy and renewable energy in total energy consumption. We will step up the construction of energy transportation routes. We will thoroughly implement the basic state policy of conserving resources and protecting the environment. We will carry out certification of energy-efficient products and oversight and inspection of energy efficiency labeling; encourage economical use of energy, water, land, and materials as well as comprehensive use of resources; and vigorously develop a circular economy. We will strengthen environmental protection; strive to solve major environmental problems that directly affect people's lives, such as heavy metals, drinking water sources, air, soil, and marine pollution; reduce pollution from non-point agricultural sources; and put hazardous chemicals under strict oversight and supervision. We will start monitoring fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River delta, the Pearl River delta and other key areas as well as in municipalities directly under the central government and provincial capital cities, and extend the practice to all cities at and above the prefectural level by 2015. We will improve the ecology, establish a sound system of compensation for ecological damage, strengthen ecological protection and restoration, and consolidate achievements in protecting virgin forests, turning vulnerable farmland into forests and grasslands, and stopping grazing to let grasslands recover. We will strengthen grassland ecological conservation; vigorously carry out afforestation; make progress in dealing with desertification and stony deserts and in improving terraced farmland; and strictly protect river sources, wetlands, lakes, and other priority functional ecological zones. We will strengthen capacity building to adapt to climate change, and especially to respond to extreme climate events, and improve our ability to prevent and mitigate natural disasters. We will uphold the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and the principle of fairness, and play a constructive role in promoting international talks on climate change. We will show the world with our actions that China will never seek economic growth at the expense of its ecological environment and public health. We are definitely capable of taking a path of civilized development which ensures that production increases, people's living standards rise, and we live in a good ecological environment.

We will enhance balanced economic development among regions. ...

You can read the entire 20+ page document here:
http://english.people.com.cn/102774/7759827.html

[FBaggins]

2. The wording of your title implies that the two aren't consistent.

They are.

[kristopher]

3. No they are not.

"China's Energy Future: Less Solar and Wind, More Nuclear and Hydro"

There is nothing about "less" solar and wind.

"Preventing blind expansion" simply cannot be read that way, especially in the context of known events and needs there. And it certainly can't be read as "taking a back seat" to nuclear and hydro.

[FBaggins]

4. You obviously didn't read the OP

Note my translation at the end?

There is nothing about "less" solar and wind.

It's "less" rapid growth (and from other reports possibly a reduction in manufacturing capacity). It's less empahsis on solar/wind. Not actually less solar/wind.

Preventing blind expansion" simply cannot be read that way

It's a clear admission that what they had been doing was blind overexpansion. That is now ending. That doesn't mean that the sector will contract.

And it certainly can't be read as "taking a back seat" to nuclear and hydro.

Of course it can. They clearly say that the focus of carbon-free generation will be hydro and nuclear. They even more clearly say that the large majority of renewables growth will be in hydro.

The quote in the HP piece is from Asia Pulse. Their next paragraph is:

China will instead develop nuclear power in 2012, actively develop hydroelectric power, tackle key problems more quickly in the exploration and development of shale gas, and increase the share of new energy and renewable energy in total energy consumption.

[kristopher]

6. That's why I included the actual text - there is no "instead".

Your desperation is showing.

We're done.

[FBaggins]

8. It's VERY clearly implied.

The only mention of wind/solar is to restrict further capacity growth and the mention of nuclear and hydro is clearly regarding additional development. Less empahsis on one category and more on the other is quite clearly "instead".

We're done.

Which, as usual, translates to "my path forward has come to a chasm... so I will pretend that I actually want to sit here. It isn't because I have no choice."

[bananas]

7. that just further damages the credibility of Asia Pulse

http://www.asiapulse.com/

We regret to advise that the Asia Pulse and
DataSources feeds will cease on March
31,2012. Asia Pulse Pte Ltd and its subsidiary,
Asia Pulse Pty Ltd, will go into liquidation owing
to financial difficulties caused by circumstances
beyond its control.

[bananas]

10. The OP was written by someone desperate for money

His employer has gone bankrupt,
he's probably owed back pay and knows he'll never see it,
but the nuclear industry has a major PR campaign with lots of money for paid shills....

[FBaggins]

12. I presume you instead mean the author of one of his quotes?

The OP was written by a poster at HuffPo.

And what of the quote from the GM of China Datang Corp saying that wind and solar will bid farewell to the era of fast development?

[bananas]

5. the wording of the article in the op was bizarre.

it goes way past biased.

[FBaggins]

9. Not really.

Just as I explained in the post, the title is less than clear, but the analysis is accurate.

They expanded too fast and now it's clear that the short-mid-term growth in the sector that they hoped for is not materializing. They blew a ton on creating the capacity and now can't sell as much of it as they expected. They're burdened with a supply glut driving prices too low and are having to purchase internally beyond what they had intended (they haven't been able to upgrade the grid fast enough to handle what they're already installing) so they have to step on the brakes. It doesn't make sense to spend government funds to create an export business only to then use government funds to buy up supply that they can't sell... and then still have to madate additional tarrifs to help pay for it.

Give the world economy a couple years to recover (and the focus to return on the climate) and they should be just fine. It was always insane to think that they could double their manufacturing capacity every year indefinitely.

[bananas]

11. rofl - the op was written by someone looking for a job

As Kristopher points out it has nothing to do with reality.
It's just some schlocky PR.

[FBaggins]

13. Was this one as well?

China's Booming Solar and Wind Sector May Be Put On Hold

http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2012/03/chinas-booming-solar-and-wind-se.html

The closest to rebutting the OP is "the government's intention to tame the renewable energy sector should have been worded differently"... note that it isn't a question that they do intend to rame the sector.

Now re-read my first comment and tell me exactly what's incorrect about it?

A better title would be "Less Emphasis on Solar and Wind" as they clearly will continue to grow the sector rapidly. Just not as rapidly.

This is the same confusion that a couple of you had a few weeks back. It's the difference between the first and second derivative and which they're looking at. If you're talking about the first derivative (power installations), then it must necessarily continue to grow (and grow rapidly), but if you're talking about the second derivative (the growing capacity to manufacture), it isn't. They're expanding their ability to produce future nuclear plants, and cutting back on the expansion of their ability to produce wind/solar. That's a very different thing than cutting future solar installations - it's just the rate of growth that's being discussed.

[bananas]

14. That's a much better article. nt

[FBaggins]

15. I'm glad you like it

It says pretty much the same thing. Less emphasis on future solar/wind, more on nuclear and hydro.

It merely leaves out the qualitative nonsense of the earlier author's theory on "why".

[bananas]

17. It's very different - perhaps the opposite

To curb carbon dioxide emissions, China in 2009 set two targets for 2020: increase the ratio of non-fossil fuels in the country's total energy mix to 15% from 7% in 2005 and cut carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP 40% to 45% below 2005 levels. Qian said the government had hoped that breakthroughs in nuclear power by 2020 would help achieve these targets. But nuclear power development has gone into a trough after Japan's Fukushima disaster. Meanwhile, widespread drought has diminished hydropower production. Wind and solar power will have to make larger contributions to reach the 2020 goal, Qian added.

This sounds like more emphasis on solar/wind, less on nuclear and hydro,
the opposite of what you are claiming.

[FBaggins]

18. And now?

It has been a year and the Chinese government has clearly cut their support for solar manufacturing - even to the point of letting the largest go bankrupt

while ramping up spending on nuclear power.

[kristopher]

16. That isn't renewable deployment, it is equipment manufacturing

There is a glut right now and the small manufacturers (who are being courted by the Party) are being hurt by it. There is absolutely nothing to indicate a slowdown in deployment of renewables. In fact, the specific language used by the Premier explicitly calls for an "increase" in renewable energy's share of total consumption. It makes no such statement regarding nuclear - instead limiting the verbiage to "safely and effectively".


"We will accelerate the establishment of mechanisms that promote the use of new energy sources; strengthen overall planning, auxiliary projects and policy guidance; and expand domestic demand. We will prevent blind expansion in our capacity to manufacture solar energy and wind power equipment.

"...We will tighten supervision of energy use, develop smart power grids and ensure the proper distribution of energy supplies, and implement effective administrative practices such as efficient electricity generation and distribution. We will optimize the energy structure, promote clean and efficient use of traditional energy, safely and effectively develop nuclear power, actively develop hydroelectric power, tackle key problems more quickly in the exploration and development of shale gas, and increase the share of new energy and renewable energy in total energy consumption. We will step up the construction of energy transportation routes."