Saudi Arabia's Syria strategy: Rewriting the Middle East's Political Map

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"The United States must realise that they are the number one in the world and they have to act like it," Prince Mohammed said, suggesting that the sooner the US re-engages the better. Reengagement means to the Saudi leader, aggressive US support for the kingdom's efforts to shape the Middle East and North Africa in its image.

What happens in Syria has a far more immediate regional fallout than events in Yemen where the Saudi military is struggling to win an unwinnable war against Iran-backed Houthi rebels unlike the war in Yemen, with its indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets, Saudi ground forces in Syria could force the US to become more involved.

Saudi intervention in Syria would, in contrast to Yemen, which the kingdom sees as a proxy war, bring Saudi troops in closer proximity to Russian forces and Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Russian and Iranian attacks on Saudi-backed rebels would inevitably have to elicit a Saudi response.

It's a high-stakes gamble that would create the perfect powder keg, from which the US would be unable to stand aside. The US hopes that implementation of an agreement by the International Syria Support Group (ISSC) to arrange a ceasefire in Syria within a week will avert Saudi military intervention. The agreement, despite Saudi support for the ISSC decision, excludes not only Islamic State but also the Saudi-supported Al Nusra Front from the cessation of hostilities, which raises questions about what the kingdom's real intentions are.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-dorsey/saudi-arabias-syria-strat_b_9216132.html

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1. Saudi Arabia Expands its Participation in the Land War in Syria

The Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz who is also Minister of Defence and the Second Deputy Prime Minister held talks with his counterparts from the US, Britain, Italy, Germany and France respectively. Prince Mohammed met Ashton Carter, Michael Fallon, Roberta Pinotti, Ursula von der Leyen and Jean-Yves Le Drian individually whilst heading the Saudi delegation at the meeting for defence ministers of the international coalition against ISIS at the headquarters of NATO in Brussels yesterday. Bilateral relations between Saudi Arabia and the countries mentioned, especially with regards to defence, were discussed and views on important issues were expressed during the international coalition’s meeting.

The adviser to the Saudi Minister of Defence Brigadier Ahmad Asiri said that Saudi Arabia’s decision to take part in ground operations against ISIS on Syrian land is “irreversible” in Brussels yesterday. He added that details of methods, mechanisms and the size of participating forces will be decided at forthcoming meetings.

Carter opened the defence ministers’ meeting in Brussels with his counterparts from 49 countries by calling on participating countries to contribute more in terms of arms and troops to implement the coalition’s “military campaign plan” against ISIS which aims to retrieve the cities of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqah in Syria first.

The Czech Defence Minister Martin Strupenk also welcomed the Saudi move to fight ISIS. In response to questions from a handful of journalists including an Asharq Al-Awsat reporter on the side lines of the defence ministers’ meetings, he pointed out that “the Saudi proposal to send in ground troops is an extremely positive matter”. He added that “we must play a role (in resolving the crisis) and we must move in this direction, and if there is an active force such as Saudi Arabia in the region, then this is a very positive matter”.

http://english.aawsat.com/2016/02/article55347499/saudi-arabia-expands-its-participation-in-the-land-war-in-syria

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2. Syria Special: The Siege of Aleppo & Munich Cessation

(I found this an interesting discussion..given the current situation with Turkey allowing Saudi Fighter Jets and Saudi Troops to be stationed there for future possible interventions in Syria.)


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Syria Special: The Siege of Aleppo & Munich Cessation

Afshin Rattansi goes underground on the Munich ceasefire and the siege of the largest city in Syria - Aleppo. Alastair Crooke, former MI6 agent, discusses what's the cause behind the ceasefire in Munich and to what extent Putin and Assad contributed to that progress. And we speak to Daily Mail columnist, Peter Oborne, to discuss his dispatch in Syria and what's behind the mainstream media’s portrayal of the ISIS/Daesh threat in Syria. Plus we look at this week's PMQs.

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3. Saudi Arabia’s obsession with removing Assad may prove self-destructive

Contrary to the recent overtures regarding ‘ceasefire’ in Syria, the war is escalating and expanding to such an extent that a number of regional and extra-regional states might soon find themselves on the horns of dilemma in making a choice between joining ‘the East’ or the West.’

While the recent Munich talks seemed to shed a ray of hope for truce, the ‘understanding’ reached there lacked an enforcement mechanism. The hollowness of the talks was evident when John Kerry said, “What we have here are words on paper, and what we need to see in the next few days are actions on the ground.”

The actions on the ground, particularly during the past two days or so, have only reaffirmed that the Syrian war is not going to end any time sooner; on the contrary, it seems to be engulfing the region.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey are planning to send ground troops (Saudi Arabia has already sent its fighter jets to Turkey) to Syria to supposedly fight the Islamic State (IS). This is only a smoke screen created by the House of Saud.

http://atimes.com/2016/02/saudi-arabias-obsession-with-removing-assad-may-prove-self-destructive/