Sticking Points Hold Up Iran Nuclear Talks

[shaayecanaan]

Sky News understands that each side has the draft text of what could be a final agreement in front of them.

Some sentences are in brackets, and some words underlined in red. These indicate the wording of issues which are contentious to one side or the other.

It is taking time to work through each one, and some have to be left so they can move on to others.

Scientific and language experts are also in the room ensuring that each side agrees they understand what the other means when using specific terms.

The Iranians want recognition of their "right" to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes and an easing of sanctions.

In return they would be expected to agree not to enrich uranium to more than 3.5% and possibly reduce their stockpiles already enriched to 20%.

There is also the issue of Iran's plutonium reactor which could come on stream next year.

There is another complicating factor meaning the talks can be expected to go on possibly past Friday: Baroness Ashton may be leading the negotiations but it is doubtful the Americans will give her the authority to sign off on a final deal without them seeing the full text and probably having their own face to face talks with the Iranians.

http://news.sky.com/story/1172015/sticking-points-hold-up-iran-nuclear-talks

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If this is true, the Iranians have made extensive concessions for what is not very much. Their stockpile of 20% medium enriched uranium will be well below what is required to make a "rush for a bomb" and their enrichment otherwise will be limited to 3.5%, which is pretty much insignificant for weapons purposes.

[Scootaloo]

1. 20% is a weird number

It's "weapon's grade" in the same way that a rusty blunderbuss is weapons-grade. That is, they'd have better luck putting the uranium in a bag and whacking people with it like Homie the clown.

But it's still well above the level needed for nuclear energy.

It's hard to think that Iran would go through all this trouble for a really, really, really crappy bomb, but it's also a head-scratcher why they would go to 20% for energy.

Given that Iran has a pretty gnarly bureaucracy, I'm going to keep my money on the idea that someone, somewhere in the chain of command, literally has no idea how any of this works, but still has say over what to do with it.

Or perhaps they're trying to develop an interplanetary drive for their nascent space program. Which would help explain the secrecy?

[sabbat hunter]

3. They need to get

that plutonium reactor dismantled, perhaps in exchange for a lightwater EPR design built with help from the French.

[shaayecanaan]

5. its not a plutonium reactor...

its a heavy water reactor that will produce plutonium, amongst other things, as a waste product. Nasty stuff but nothing weapons grade unless you reprocess it, and Iran has no reprocessing facilities. Its actually a lot trickier dealing with this stuff than with uranium, even in terms of trying to create a weapon.

Theres no reason why they cant come to an agreement on this, say for example by the Russians taking all the waste from the reactor. That is the process that they have in place for the Bushehr plant which is already online.

If you want to build a light water reactor, you need enriched uranium ie enrichment facilities. So pick your poison, basically. Either a light water reactor which requires enrichment, or a heavy water plant that produces plutonium.

[shaayecanaan]

4. Not really...

There is less than 1% U-235 (the magic stuff) in naturally occurring uranium ore (yellowcake), the remainder being U-238.

Trying to get highly enriched uranium from yellowcake is like trying to make cream out of skim milk. It is very slow and laborious, and generates prodigious amounts of waste, as the bit that you're after is only a small part of the whole.

However, once you get to 20%, making cream is a lot less laborious. If you are prepared to be wasteful, and discard a lot of U-235 for the sake of getting the remainder of relatively pure U-235 then you can, effectively, make a rush for a bomb. Weapons grade uranium doesn't need to be pure, about 90% or even less will do just fine.

20% is a politically significant number as it is the degree of enrichment that is typically used for medical isotopes (radiotherapy). It is, essentially, the highest degree of enrichment that is consistent with peaceful purposes.

This is the nuclear strategy of not just Iran, but Japan, Australia, Belgium and a host of other countries. All of these countries have full nuclear cycles, even though they are signatories to the NPT. They all enrich to 20%, ostensibly for medical isotopes, although they generally produce more than they need. Essentially, they basically keep their toes in the water in the event that they need to build a bomb quickly.

[Jefferson23]

2. Whatever Israel says, it is Iran that's offering the concessions

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/whatever-israel-says-it-is-iran-thats-offering-the-concessions-8930811.html

[shira]

6. All told, Iran has lost over $400 billion to sanctions...

The NYT just reported Iran is losing $25-30 billion every 6 months due to oil sanctions alone. Why do you think they allowed this to happen if they were going nuclear for the right reasons?

These crippling sanctions are what brought Iran to the table. What scares Iran worse than giving up their nukes is giving up their power (let's call it the Persian Spring). A deal will allow them to proceed with their nukes while remaining in power.

[shaayecanaan]

7. You guys are really going to go feral over this aren't you?

I remember a while back when it looked as though Obama was serious about wanting to stop the settlements, and the sort of reaction that brought out amongst right-wing Jews (monkey caricatures of Obama and the like). I imagine this could bring forth a similar reaction.

[shira]

8. Congressional and Senate Dems oppose Obama on Iran

Thomas Friedman currently wrote an op-ed on how the Israel Lobby is influencing Dems to oppose Obama.

But seriously, why do u think Iran has allowed itself to lose > $400 billion dollars due to sanctions, if they're not in pursuit of nuclear weapons?

[Jefferson23]

9. Israeli military goes off message on Iran nuclear talks (+video)

Last edited Sun Nov 24, 2013, 09:15 AM - Edit history (1)

Looks like Israel's military sees your question as irrelevant.

Iran is a sovereign nation, why that escapes you, I have my suspicions. The US has interfered
in their government before, to Iran's detriment.

As it has been pointed out before, it is Iran who is making significant concessions, not Israel.


Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu fiercely opposes a deal with Iran, but the Israeli military puts a more positive spin on how a deal could bolster regional stability.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Security-Watch/2013/1121/Israeli-military-goes-off-message-on-Iran-nuclear-talks-video?cmpid=addthis_twitter#.Uo8_6fTCQeo.twitter

[shaayecanaan]

10. and you do too, right?

good to see that even Harry Reid is cheerfully stabbing Obama in the back every chance he gets. If the man had any less backbone he would be a mollusc.

But seriously, why do u think Iran has allowed itself to lose > $400 billion dollars due to sanctions, if they're not in pursuit of nuclear weapons?

Saddam Hussein probably lost more than that, and it turns out he had no nuclear weapons altogether. Why do you think that Saddam Hussein "allowed" himself to lose so much to sanctions when he had no weapons of mass destruction at all?