Bad Lyme Disease Spring Predicted For Northeast, Begin Vigilance Now

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http://commonhealth.wbur.org/2012/03/lyme-disease-spring



his just in from the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies: We in the Northeast should expect an unusually large surge of Lyme disease this spring.

It’s not the extraordinarily mild winter that’s to blame, it’s the fluctuation of mouse populations and acorn harvests. (More on that later.) But the mild winter may mean that the danger period, when tiny young “nymph” ticks that carry Lyme are out for our blood, could begin earlier than usual. The bottom line from Dr. Richard S. Ostfeld, a Cary Institute disease ecologist: Watch out. Starting now.

Normally, Lyme disease risk ramps up in May. But “This past winter,” he said “was record-breaking mild, and when you get records, when you have extremes in weather events, to some degree all bets are off. We don’t really know whether the nymphs are going to start their activity earlier this year than in normal years. So it’s remotely possible they could be out as early as April. They’re cold-blooded creatures, so things get speeded up in terms of their metabolism and development when things are warmer. So it could be a bit earlier than usual. I wouldn’t wait to be vigilant. The time is now.” (What does such vigilance look like? Here are prevention tips from the CDC.)

I asked Dr. Ostfeld if he could offer some order of magnitude of the expected surge in Lyme disease. Very, very roughly, he said, we could see perhaps 20 percent more cases than usual.

Acorn production in 2010 set a record for the 20-plus years it has been monitored, he said, “and mouse abundance in the summer of 2011 was oh, perhaps 10 or 20 percent higher than we’ve ever recorded. So I would expect the Lyme disease risk should be at least that much higher than we’ve had in the past.” He emphasized: “This is a prediction based on past trends, and in ecology, as in economics — what do they say about stock portfolios? — past performance does not predict future returns. But that’s my best estimate as to what might happen.”

[Warpy]

1. I've had Lyme disease. You don't want it.

The earlier it's caught, the easier it is to treat.