Nate Silver predicts Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl matchup

[bluedigger]

Silver appeared on ESPN's First Take to explain how he arrived at his prediction. Most of the segment was devoted to the choice of Seattle as the NFC representative.

"The point differential is often a better predictor than just the wins and losses," Silver said.

Seattle won all five of its December games, and three of the last four were blowouts.

"I'd say that New England and Denver are the two best teams," Silver added. "I think if you have a Denver-New England AFC Championship game, it'll be one of those cases where it really is the de facto Super Bowl."

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/extra_points/2013/01/nate_silver_pre.html

Given the risk of injury, I think the other teams should just concede now.

[El Supremo]

1. Just a wee bit partisan aren't you?

You belong in Congress.

[madinmaryland]

3. *snort* The pot calling the kettle black!!

[bluedigger]

5. I just don't want to see anyone hurt.

For the children's sake.

[Scuba]

2. But hey, that's why they play the games. Go Packers!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bluedigger]

6. You make a compelling argument.

[a kennedy]

11. Ditto to that Scuba

GO PACK GO.....

[JonLP24]

4. Brian Burke

surprisingly has Seattle as smallest of favorites over Atlanta, 51%, even though he has Seattle #3 in overall efficiency.

As seasons come to an end, the conventional assessments of team strength and some of the more advanced rankings tend to converge. That’s the case with the Seattle Seahawks this season. My model had them ranked sixth in the league midway through the season, even as the Seahawks fell to a 4-4 record.

Now they visit a No. 1 seed, Atlanta, on Sunday in what looks to be the most evenly matched game of the divisional round of the playoffs. The model has Seattle as a very slight favorite, while most oddsmakers slightly favor the Falcons. That’s not to say there’s a significant disagreement. The 50 percent point is somewhat arbitrary when it comes to calling a team a favorite. If conventional analysis said one team was a 76 percent favorite and a statistical model said it was a 70 percent favorite, we’d probably say both methods were in agreement. But if one method said 53 percent and the other said 47 percent, suddenly the stats are calling for an upset.

That’s the case with the Seattle-Atlanta game. Still, it’s worth taking a deeper look at why the numbers favor the Seahawks.

Team netYPA Run SR% Int% Fum% D netYPA D Run SR% D Int% Pen Rate
SEA 6.8 46 2.1 1.7 5.3 53 3.0 0.45
ATL 7.0 36 2.2 0.9 6.7 56 3.4 0.21
Avg 6.2 41 2.5 2.0 6.2 57 2.4 0.41

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/10/divisional-round-probabilities-atlanta-seattle-coin-toss-game/

[Renew Deal]

8. Sports doesn't work that way.

You can say that one is better than the other, but there are other factors. Seattle will have to play all their games on the road. Green Bay is a very good team. New England will have to play a game on the road and they have been shaky this year.

That said, I think the Seahawks are very good and have a good chance to make it. Pats-Seahawks wouldn't surprise me.

[joeybee12]

9. He's bound to be wrong sometime...

I think this is the time...Seahawks making it would not surprise me...Pats would, though...

[KamaAina]

10. I assume Nate is factoring in the CCF*

*- Carroll Cheat Factor.

[sadbear]

12. And the BCF, too.

You know what that B stands for, don't you?

[KamaAina]

13. Belaboring the point?

Beating a dead horse?

[Yavin4]

14. Nate Silver Needs to stop Spoiling Stuff

Nate is taking all the fun out of life.

[thelordofhell]

15. Nate should stick to politics...........

He's half wrong already

[KamaAina]

16. Must be an AFC guy

NINERS!!!!

[Iggo]

17. Pinche Nate Silver!!!

:shakesfist: