A New Equation Reveals Our Exact Odds of Finding Alien Life I

[Ichingcarpenter]

It’s been over half a century since Frank Drake developed an equation to estimate the probability of finding intelligent life in our galaxy. We’ve learned a lot since then, prompting an astrophysicist from MIT to come up with her own take on the equation. Here’s how the new formula works — and how it could help in the search for alien life.

The new formula was devised by Sara Seager, a professor of planetary science and physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. I contacted her to learn more about the new equation and why the time was right for a rethink.


snip


Now, it’s important to note that this equation is not an update to the Drake Equation per se — it’s more like a parallel equation that can work in tandem with the original version. Rather than come up with a formula to predict the predominance of intelligent life, Seager is interested in predicting our chances of detecting any kind of life within the next ten years.

And the reason for this is purely practical: It’s rooted in the real world of what we already know — or are soon to know.

“We’re not throwing out the Drake Equation, which is really a different topic,” she explains. “Since Drake came up with the equation, we have discovered thousands of exoplanets. We as a community have had our views revolutionized as to what could possibly be out there. And now we have a real question on our hands, one that’s not related to intelligent life: Can we detect any signs of life in any way in the very near future?”

http://io9.com/what-a-brand-new-equation-reveals-about-our-odds-of-fin-531575395

[Loudly]

1. How much better are the odds for finding stupid life?

And should I be encouraged by that?

[bananas]

2. blah blah blah 2

she estimates we'll find 2 lifely planets in the next ten years

[Posteritatis]

3. That's a pretty good number for a sample size that tiny, actually. (nt)

[bananas]

4. We've detected bio-signatures on Mars

Methane variation in the atmosphere detected a few years ago is likely biological.
And re-analysis of the Viking data found a diurnal cycle which was likely biological.
If we had put a microscope on Curiousity, we might see bacteria swimming around in the subsurface mud.

[Javaman]

5. And here I thought 42 was the answer all along...