2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNevada is not a lock for Clinton anymore...
The article explains some dirty tricks from 2008 that have not been forgotten....
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/why-hillary-isnt-such-lock-win-key-early-state-nevada-anymore
Hillary Clintons road to the Democratic presidential nomination just got rockier.
If Clinton loses the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary as many are predictingdue to Bernie Sanders surging supporters in Iowa and rising poll numbers in New Hampshirethen the nations third Democratic contest, in Nevada, becomes even more critical to show she is back on her feet.
But news from Nevada, the third state to vote and the Wests first state to hold a presidential nominating event, are showing the odds are not stacking up in her favor, even though she had a 20-point lead in Christmas polling.
One of Nevadas biggest and most politically active unions, Las Vegas Culinary Workers Union Local 226, has opted not to make an endorsement in the partys 2016 caucuses on February 20. In a statement issued late Wednesday, union leaders said they would focus on mobilizing members for the November election instead.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)Jarqui
(10,128 posts)Clinton had 22 paid staff in October there.
Bernie has 11 offices to Clinton's 7 in Nevada (as best I can tell from their campaign sites and the news).
My sense of it is the Clinton campaign is behind Bernie in organization in Nevada but it's not like the Clinton campaign had no one there (unlike many of the states that follow on Super Tuesday until very recently)
marlakay
(11,479 posts)The paid guy in Carson City loves Bernie and is on fire getting the volunteers going.
Besides Nevada volunteers lots coming up from bay area to help. We came all the way from Eureka area 4 middle age women. Saw 3 men our age too so not only the young but they were there too.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)particularly after Iowa (where we are also car pooling). I imagine a WHOLE lot more Californians will be able to go to Nevada than Iowa since Nevada is right next door. Hopefully that will put us closer.
panader0
(25,816 posts)WillyT
(72,631 posts)...
...
No matter how you parse it, this is not what the 2016 Clinton campaign wanted to hear, which is perhaps why it has dispatched former President Bill Clinton to Nevada for events on Thursday.
The non-endorsement is not exactly a surprise, given a long history of frayed relations between the Clintons, the Nevada Democratic Party and Culinary union members dating to 2008, when the union endorsed Barack Obama before the primary.
Indeed, the 08 hangover, when the Culinary embraced Barack Obama and the Clintons went ballistic (Bill even called then-MGM Chairman Kirk Kerkorian to complain about casino caucus sites), appears not to have healed, wrote Ralston Reports. There is bad blood there, made worse by Clinton beating the Culinary in the caucus (but then losing the delegate fight).
Actually, it was worse than that. In 2008, the Democratic Party created special caucus sites at major Las Vegas casinos so workers could break and participate. The party was so pro-Clinton, however, that this reporter and longtime voting rights attorney Tova Wang witnessed party officials trying to block some casino workers from attending: they said the casino sites were reserved for people who were working that day, not for people who had taken the day off to caucus. That was the most overt polling place voter suppression incident Alternet witnessed in 2008.
The pro-Hillary chicanery didnt stop there. When the party announced the results of the 2008 caucus, it declared Clinton the winnerwhich the national media duly reportedbased on the number of people voting for her in caucus sessions. But that was a ruse, because thats not how Nevada chooses its Democratic Convention delegates. It awards more delegates to lower-population rural areas and fewer delegates to higher-population urban areas, a formula that Obama used to his advantage.
From OP Article.
I had forgotten about that... and they hope you have too.
Punkingal
(9,522 posts)It is HUGE that Clinton didn't get their endorsement for the primary. I wish Bernie had, but I will settle for this. I also doubt that the minimum wage stance of Clinton's will help her with Culinary.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)Punkingal
(9,522 posts)MineralMan
(146,318 posts)Let's see what they show. Lacking those, it's pretty hard to predict, really.
Punkingal
(9,522 posts)I'm sure both campaigns would have loved the endorsement and I wonder how that will affect things.
MineralMan
(146,318 posts)They didn't endorse Sanders, either. They're leaving it up to their members, many of whom are Hispanic or otherwise people of color. Those voters will make up their own minds.
Wait for the polls, or wait for the date. Soon enough, we'll know how Nevada will go or has gone.
The bulk of Nevada's population is in the Las Vegas area, so what happens there will determine the outcome.
I wouldn't make any prediction, really. There will be polling, right after the IA and NH dates. Then, we will have a clearer picture of what is likely to happen in NV.
Punkingal
(9,522 posts)Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)His numbers are going to go through the roof going into Nevada. After he wins Nevada, SC goes to Bernie OR will be very, very close.
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)by not getting involved in 2014. Culinary has the numbers and they are like a herd,in 2014 they sat on their hands and the rest is history.
We are one month away from Caucus Day,and who ever is in charge has to get going. Zero voter contact with the Dems,Rethugs are doing mailings like crazy. Same crap as 2014,wait till the last minute and think they can pull it off. Don't think so.