2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538 just updated their Iowa prediction
Using Polls only for their prediction, Clinton stands at 74% likely to win.
Using their Polls Plus methodology (includes things like endorsements) her odds stand at 80%.
The blow out win Bernie needs to have any kind of chance in SC and the SEC primary is looking less and less likely.
Response to Godhumor (Original post)
1000words This message was self-deleted by its author.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Winning by a couple of delegates or losing by a couple of delegates won't exactly shift the massive hurdle Bernie has in more diverse states. In order to stay competitive in delegate count is to crush Iowa and NH both.
If he can't, he has a huge problem on his hands.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)Last edited Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:43 PM - Edit history (1)
morningfog
(18,115 posts)solid win. An near even split is all he really needs, at this point. Hillary's gonna get clobbered in NH. We'll go from there.
cali
(114,904 posts)All he has to do is keeping it close.
Old Codger
(4,205 posts)The fact that it is even close means he has Already defeated her, she and her fans just don't get it yet... I fit is a tie she loses, if it is even close she loses, she is a lost cause...
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Have to love meaningless coincidences.
...
That's it. I have no point to this post.
Cheers!
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)about states with caucuses. I live in one, and
in 08 we argued for at least an hour back and
forth. Minds were changed right there.
It also depends on how many people think that
this particular election would be very important,
which shows in attendance.
Lastly,and sadly it depends on the weather. If bad
a lot of good intentions to participate go down the
drain.
If they predict a primary state, that is much more
reliable, but caucuses are very different, because
a lot of people know their neighbors.
LexVegas
(6,094 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)will have destroyed the myth of Hillary's inevitability, the sole remainder ng argument for her candidacy.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Only different!
Logical
(22,457 posts)BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)In contested years, Iowa is only about 50% right. That is predictive of nothing. They are a little better with Dems than the Republicans. They never get the Republicans right.
New Hampshire is only about 50% right also. A coin flip is just as predictive.
Why does anybody waste any time with these things? They mean nothing at all.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)lunamagica
(9,967 posts)Kilgore
(1,733 posts)Seems all the polls got it wrong.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)Kilgore
(1,733 posts)And possibly not even a win since the results are not certified yet. Time will tell on this one.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)Kilgore
(1,733 posts)+8 & +11
DrDan
(20,411 posts)PPP had her at 48% - pretty darned close - they overestimated MOM at 7%