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TPM - "State Of The Race: How Previous Presidential Campaigns Looked Going Into October (CHART)
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/presidential-race-gallup-october.php?ref=fpnewsfeed"Historically, President Obama is in a solid position to win re-election, if the Gallup tracking poll of the presidential race is any guide.
Wednesday’s release of Gallup’s 7-day tracker puts him at 50 percent to Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s 44 percent, which is well above the trend in the 2004 and 2000 elections. Those elections were dead heats. The current Gallup tracking poll has a 2 percent margin of error, which means Obama’s lead is statistically significant.
The chart below shows the position of each candidate in the last nine elections going into October and the sprint to the finish line — where they were in the Gallup poll a little more than a month out and then the final result.
Many comparisons have been made between the current election and the bruising contest between President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) in 2004 — an embattled incumbent president with both a strong base of support and a strong opposition. Bush and Kerry were tied on Oct. 1, 2004 at 49 percent."
