2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumalways worth reading - Josh Marshall's take on things - his debate wrap from tonight
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-quick-take-on-tonight-s-debate"I think we have two basic questions coming out of this debate - vision for the Democratic party and electability. Nor are these questions distinct. The issue of electability goes to the heart of the vision for the party, since it goes to the root of questions about pragmatism, risk aversion, settling for half or quarter loaves or ending up with nothing. After several of these encounters - after last night and tonight - these basic questions, dividing points seem very clear and well illustrated."
In terms of the debate itself, the first segment was very hot. In part, the pressure of the campaign is boiling over in the exchanges between the two. Campaigns involves hundreds or millions of people, with each candidate as a fulcrum for the directives, hopes, antipathies, aspirations of so many people. The intensity of emotion, pressure, the stakes can be overwhelming. And you could see some of that coming out this evening.
That said, I also think the Clinton camp made a decision to shake things up, to push Sen. Sanders maybe more than he's used to being pushed. It got intense and kind of personal. But after that first segment both Sanders and Clinton seemed to step back from the tone and budding climate of acrimony. In the remaining segments it was much more similar to the earlier debates.
As I said at the outset, Sanders has the virtue of coherence, a tightly argued, interlocking set of critiques and explanations of what is wrong, how the different parts fit together and what he believes needs to change. There's very little of that with Clinton. It's more of a barrage: I'm going to do my best to improve things on each front. I'm also going to protect our gains.
snip
read the rest, it is interesting.
I am curious about this comment he posted earlier
"10:29 PM: I will put my cards on the table. I think Sanders would be cut to pieces in a general election. I think he's great. I'd support him like crazy if he were nominated. But I think he'd be cut to pieces."
pacalo
(24,721 posts)He doesn't have the baggage they have.
SusanCalvin
(6,592 posts)Why he thought he'd be cut to pieces and exactly what he meant by that?
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)it seems to be more that he thinks she is more electable in this climate. Read the full article - he touches on it a bit, but not with complete clarity.
SusanCalvin
(6,592 posts)If he doesn't explain what you quoted, he's really kinda lost my interest.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)In an ordinary election year, she probably would have succeeded in marginalizing Bernie, but things are bad enough for enough of us that status quo candidates are at a marked disadvantage. Put a true populist in the race and status quo candidates look like the empty suits they are.
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)winter is coming
(11,785 posts)They simply can't grasp that this is a screwball election cycle and all bets are off. We're in an upheaval/adjustment period, and they're still trying to apply rubrics that "worked" when things were stable.
Manifestor_of_Light
(21,046 posts)Since Reagan was elected in 1980, and he started union busting, things really started to go downhill.Trickle-down economics, blather from Milton Friedman and the Chicago School. Utter contempt for Jimmy Carter because of the secret deal on releasing the Iran hostages until Reagan was inaugurated, which was blamed on Jimmy Carter. Carter was a brilliant and decent man.
Since then it's been downhill. More of the same with Poppy Bush, who was still fairly moderate. Then we got a moderate Republican named Bill Clinton. The economy improved some, but I remember looking for jobs in the late 90s and having problems. Then we got Shrub selected by the SCROTUS, not elected. Things were a disaster, we were the laughing stock of the world, but it was unpatriotic to criticize the President.
Then we got 7 years of Obama, who is moderate, and got a lot of things accomplished in spite of having a Congress that hated his guts and stonewalled just about everything he did. We thought he was a liberal just like we thought Bill Clinton was a liberal. Wrong. The one thing he did that affected my life was that I was able to get health insurance because of the prohibition of using pre-existing conditions to deny health insurance. I had not had health insurance in ten years. I wish we had universal single-payer with the insurance companies completely out of the picture, but that didn't happen.
Since Obama was elected twice, by huge margins, the racism seething in the U.S. has gotten open and ugly. The same accusations hurled at Bill Clinton were also hurled at Obama, plus some more like the birther issue (HELLO! Hawaii was a state when Obama was born there. Hawaii is STILL a state, NOT a territory). The bigots have not learned a damned thing since the Civil War started 150 years ago. No, Texas CANNOT secede from the Union. That didn't work out the last time.
I think with Bernie telling the truth about money in politics, maybe people are starting to wake up. I saw the downhill slide start back in 1980. My dad got to the point where every time he saw Reagan on TV he wanted to spit.
A lot of Baby Boomers have just wasted the majority of their working lives not getting jobs, not getting raises, not making enough money, even though we were the best-educated generation in history because college was affordable before student debt and tuition became ridiculously high. I finished my graduate degree thirty years ago, just before tuition went sky-high. It was creeping up, but I was still able to make enough money at work to pay for night school. I had degrees from two expensive private schools (a bachelor's and a doctorate) that didn't impress anyone enough to offer me a job.
I hope Bernie can snag independents and people who don't vote and we can have an actual Democrat instead of a triangulator and a corporate shill in the White House. Bernie is a New Deal Democrat. Nobody who is of voting age has ever seen one, unless they're about 80 years old.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)The Democratic Party has given Republicans a free pass on so many issues.
Bernie has a massive arsenal that he can use against them. He has been kind to Hillary, but will show no such mercy to the Republicans.
demwing
(16,916 posts)not so against Clinton.
Bernie is no delicate flower
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)There isn't an impressive one in the bunch.
demwing
(16,916 posts)He's like an evil Ned Flanders - all family, God, saccharine, and fascism.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)jillan
(39,451 posts)In his own Bernie way, he is so smooth.
Luminous Animal
(27,310 posts)Both of them are strong enough to whether the cuts.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)I think that she can handle the others.
senz
(11,945 posts)He goes easy on her.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)that Hillary would be unable to find or unwilling to use.
Luminous Animal
(27,310 posts)JRLeft
(7,010 posts)RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Bernie never voted to take your guns.
The republicans can't use guns against Bernie but they can on H.
snot
(10,529 posts)The fact is, our conservaDems have failed miserably in communicating the kinds of ideas Sanders propounds, presumably at least in part because they are owned.
Sanders understands that if we don't fix campaign finance reform asap, we'll never get our government back. And he knows that kind of reform is not going to happen without challenging the 1% in ways they haven't been challenged in decades.
He can only do that by telling the truth, and trying to bring people with him as to why it's so important that we challenge t.p.t.b. So for the first time in a long time, he is telling is the truths that the 1% don't want to hear; and he's doing it with the kind of passion, coherence, and eloquence that only happens when one is not trying to serve two masters, but has devoted and continues to devote all of their energies to serving the good of the the people as a whole.
When Sanders is heard, I suspect there are people who never expected to agree with him, who find themselves realizing, this guy is focussing on the things that are really affecting me, and what he's saying about them makes a lot of sense; maybe he's right about some other things.
(I realize a lot of RW'er's are hopelessly brainwashed; but they're not voting for Hillary, either.)
I'm really curious to see what kind of blowback he gets on the death penalty issue. People seem ready to try to make hay about it, but I suspect it will play well with a majority.
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)snot
(10,529 posts)snowy owl
(2,145 posts)Bernie never intended to actually run a full campaign. He got into it because the country is falling apart and he has institutional memory. His stated mission was to pull Hillary to the left. Suddenly, his message was resonating with Americans. Now he wants to be President because he actually thinks he can change the country. I love that. I've never thought Hillary wanted it for any other reason that she'd be the first woman and, heck, why not have two Presidents in the family. There's a huge and obvious difference in their missions. Let's face it, Bernie schooled Hillary tonight. He schooled Rachel and he schooled the toad (sorry, can't help it). They did their best to bring him down and they lost. It was a fabulous presentation for Bernie. Just fabulous. BTW, someone must have told Hillary to tone it down because there was much less repetitive whining when she returned to the stage at halftime.
snagglepuss
(12,704 posts)reads.
snot
(10,529 posts)DavidDvorkin
(19,477 posts)So did my wife, who was watching the debate with me. We both felt that Hillary has improved markedly as a debater and would be more than able to hold her own against any of the Republicans.
onecaliberal
(32,861 posts)They don't talk about her HIGH unfavorables. There is no way she wins if she's the Nominee, a republican will take the White House. If you think 2010 was bad, it's going to look like a walk in the park. Then maybe people will finally wake the fuck up.
musiclawyer
(2,335 posts)Everyone knows HRC brings out massive GOP turnout. Bernie will get into that no doubt in next debates
SusanCalvin
(6,592 posts)Not how much they attack her, but how much she would drive R turnout. A lot, I bet. I had not thought of it this way. You should make these thoughts an OP.
ETA: Well, everyone may know it, but I hadn't consciously considered it.
kenn3d
(486 posts)that Bernie will receive a fair portion of the disillusioned Republican vote, as well as MANY more Indy votes than HRC.
There are a lot of Republicans wringing their hands right now at their party's prospective candidates. When it comes down to Cruz, or Trump, or Sanders... a fair number of Repubs who aren't batshitcrazy will choose Bernie.
MelSC
(256 posts)Count on it. It doesn't matter who we put up there, the repugs are angry. Hillary has the best shot against these slimeballs.
sorechasm
(631 posts)Bernie will get the majority of these. Hillary will get none of these.
The total of Republican and Democratic voters will be between 50% and 60%. The Independents will make up the rest. Do the math.
Human101948
(3,457 posts)That sort of rhetoric will definitely help us win the White House this year.
MelSC
(256 posts)Didn't seem to be looking for a well thought out debate . All I can do is vote for my candidate, arguing in here will not change anyone's minds.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)like the fact that his spirituality is not rooted in God.
Some here might not care, but it could answer the question why it will be
very difficult to gain or excite the AA and Latino votes, as both groups (maybe not the young ones as much)
are fairly religious.
The Republicans will love that one plenty. In fact, they may not need anything else.
And I think that Marco Rubio is the Republican that will come out on top.
Certainly not Trump.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)Older black people will have a major issue with this.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)moreso then their African-American counterparts,
and even most young Black folks, although not all are religious,
many still have been brought up in the church.
But the other worry is if Mark Rubio is the GOP chosen one,
Latinos who might not gone for him otherwise, just might.
They don't need that many....
but with the extra added caveat of Sanders being non religious,
that might push just enough over to the other side.
That would be a problem, and the GOP is going to be sure to let the world
know this about Bernie Sanders during a general election.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)Religion is dying in this country thank goodness.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)there tend to be more religious than Black youth,
because they tend to have been raised in the Catholic Church,
while AA usually are Protestants.
The older generation we are talking about is not that old.
I'm talking about 35 on....
Once folks get married and have children,
many do start going back to church, as many were raised in the church and have only wandered away for at time,
but as life gets more complicated, folks want someone to turn to other than themselves,
and also want to raise children in the church, as they were raised.
I'm a minister's wife. We attend a large Baptist Church.
I know pretty much what the demographics are.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)Church attendance is on the decline.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)Not a problem.....
and if it is, we will soon know this well.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)Plus he's gonna have to put more flesh on those bones on how he is figuring to accomplish
all of the things he is promising. It's easy to point to the problem
and come up with some radical solutions,
but we do have a government that includes 2 houses of congress.
The next census election is 2020, which is also the next presidential election year (thank God)!
When he speaks of improving policing in America,
it's like this stuff is under the jurisdiction of the states,
not even, more like the counties in the city in the states.
and it's not like he will be a king.
So I'm not sure about all of that. Sounds good tough,
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)and some of them were very impressed with him.
You as a minister's wife probably know that Bernie's views mesh beautifully with those of Jesus.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)Not a problem.
I disagree tho.
senz
(11,945 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)....to a much greater degree than Hillary, who doesn't beat most of them.
Electability is not an issue.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)so I'm not listening to you on this....
They haven't attacked Sanders on anything yet.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)compared to what he would get if the nominee.
Not even close.
rufus dog
(8,419 posts)Obama beating McCain by 4 to 6, while Hillary was up or down by one. Who had McCain up by double digits?
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)Like I said....polls now for November,
when the candidate hasn't been vetted....
Okey-Dokey, go with that. No problem.
My eyes are wide open tho.
rufus dog
(8,419 posts)My take is either candidate is going to get slammed by the Republicans and the media. The starting point now and in 2008 was lower for Hillary. She had and has higher negatives. So either way it will be a brawl, question is who and for what ideas will the fight be about.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008
mikehiggins
(5,614 posts)Not that I expect Pope Frank to endorse him but Bernie has taken great pains to point out the similarities in what he talks about and what the Pontiff talks about, at least on economic and humanist fronts. And while lots of older voters might hold more rigid views on religion there are quite a few Christians who remember how two thousand years ago it was that wild radical Jew who drove the money changers out of the Temple.
Even DWS pointed out that Sanders' religion was legit and that he participated in the Jewish caucus in the House.
And the people at Liberty College listened when he pointed out what Christ said about the poor.
So here is another choice: either elect the first woman to the White House, or elect the first Jew.
Sounds like a win/win to me
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)The problem is that Bernie Sanders doesn't actually believe in God.
It was in his answer in the Town Hall. He didn't make the link when asked about his faith
to God at all. There's nothing wrong with it, but he's running for President.
He can only come in with so many firsts. Currently there's about 7 of those.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)who will never cast a vote for someone who they think is an atheist regardless of his views on other subjects.
"The Republicans will love that one plenty. In fact, they may not need anything else."
They will use this 24/7 against Bernie should he get the nomination thats for sure.
Jarqui
(10,125 posts)Autumn
(45,084 posts)up the people really are. Bernie understands that and that's why his message is drawing people in. I think in the GE Bernie will do just fine, he'll be the one doing the slicing and dicing.
amborin
(16,631 posts)Got a detailed plan. His Dem Socialism refers to the policies and programs that made America great and ensured all shared in the prosperity. HRC has no such plan. Just the opposite. People know Mrs. NAFTA would approve the TPP and enact policies that benefit Wall Street, Big Pharma, and giant corporations.
HRC would be shredded in the GE.
snowy owl
(2,145 posts)Bernie said of his ability to campaign "Don't underestimate me." He was cool throughout Hillary's defensive barrage of "poor me" statements. He was concise and stuck to issues. He was calm - even-voiced - and on message in every response. Who would you want to pick that red phone at 3 am? If you people think he'll be cut to pieces after seeing the constancy in his campaign and debates, you haven't been paying attention. This man is the smartest man we've had run for President - well, since I don't know who. Vote the Bern. Don't let fear keep us mired int he status quo cuz it ain't gonna stay the status quo. It will get worse. And if that many come out to actually vote for Bernie which I believe will happen, his coattails will be huge.
oasis
(49,387 posts)twice before putting him in charge of our military. In the troubled world in which we live, national security will be high on the list of priorities.
snot
(10,529 posts)I think he's in a position to argue that he does in fact understand that force can sometimes be warranted.
oasis
(49,387 posts)U.S.Constitution in its entirety.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)I hear no one talking about national security as it relates to foreign intervention. I do hear some people talk about mass shootings, but what I mostly hear about is how much time people have to work to earn so little and how people still cannot afford health insurance.
oasis
(49,387 posts)highly publicized attack from now until Election Day will push voters closer to who they believe is the most qualified in keeping their families safe.
The best health care system in the world is of little value in a situation which may find you face to face with people hell bent on mass killing.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)will now be Commander-in-Chief?
How could he?
He who escaped the ravage of war
because he didn't believe due to being a pacifist
will now possibly have to send others in Harm way?
I don't think will happen.
oasis
(49,387 posts)of the top military brass. Expect the GOP ads to play this up to the point of going overboard. And as we all know, Bernie's $27 per donor will not nearly be enough to answer the "swiftboating" attacks.
TransitJohn
(6,932 posts)We shouldn't have a standing army like we do now. We should go back to the size of military we had before WWII. The biggest reason we're in such dire straits is the fact that we have been kept on a wartime footing since WWII. Those 'military brass' should go packing back to the farm. We want our money back.
oasis
(49,387 posts)TransitJohn
(6,932 posts)It's bankrupting us.
GainesT1958
(4,480 posts)Let's remember that there have been relatively few attacks on Sen. Sanders by Repubs thusfar. But you can bet all those millions their superpacs have raised will be brought full force against him. Being called (wrongly. of course) a "Communist" certainly doesn't resonate the way it did back in the fifties, but it's still enough to scare people...and the fear factor has already gone a long way this year--look at The Donald if one doesn't believe me. They have unloaded on Hillary for over twenty-three years now, and they haven't scratched yet.
Bernie Sanders is a good, decent--and usually, very correct--man, but he may well end up being the early 21st Century's version of George McGovern. And THAT would cost the Party's candidates down-ticket enormously..including here in North Carolina, where we really want to kick our spineless Republican governor out of office.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)George McGovern - the idea that Nixon was re-elected still doesn't sit well with me. This isn't going to be an easy election cycle. I wish I knew which candidate has the better chance of winning this fall.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)He's calling for a radical revolution, as Sander's spokesperson specifically called it,
and the media went....ok.
They are keeping their powder dry for now.
kennetha
(3,666 posts)and foreign policy naïf unknown to most would indeed be eviscerated in the GE. 45+ state blow out
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... other things that the well-funded GOP attack machine would use against him. (We're not even allowed to discuss them here.) Bernie would be so vulnerable. It would be sending a lamb to fight the wolves. No contest.
Hillary, on the other hand, has seen it all, heard it all, fended of ALL these attacks for 25+ years. Her current poll number ALREADY INCLUDE the effects of these attacks ... and look how well she's doing!!
Most reasonable people IGNORE the rehashing of old attacks, because they see them for what they are. New & improved (repackaged) attacks on Hillary are also seen the same way... just more of the same-old-same-old... quickly disregarded.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Fatal vulnerabilities in the GE. Josh Marshall is spot on. I admire the passion of Bernie's supporters but I'm afraid it has blinded them to his flaws. Like Josh said he would be cut to pieces in the GE.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)maybe with Elizabeth Warren but who knows.
That said I think electability is going to be clarified in the primaries to come. Bernie will start to lose support. But his candidancy has made Clinton stronger. She's having to focus and I think will end up in much better shape in the General.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)without being able to convert them to him....
just based on his being "spiritual", but it having nothing to do with God.
That one is gonna be super problematic,
The Republicans are gonna have a field day with that issue,
and in this case, their attacks will be true.
Perhaps this country is ready for the oldest oldest guy,
Perhaps this country is ready for a Jewish guy,
Perhaps this country is ready for a Socialist calling for a Radical Revolution
Perhaps this country is ready to vote as Commander-in-chief
a guy who was a conscientious objector
But a guy who doesn't believe in God?
I'm super doubtful on that one.
It sure is asking for a lot,
considering that the alternative will be a 100% GOP Trifecta.
That's a great part of why I'm supporting Hillary Clinton,
apart for other reasons, of course.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)more than perhaps being a socialist. I rarely think about that factor here in California.
I'm with you, the number one priority is keeping the GOP out. If Bernie is dominating in all the polls and all of a sudden young people take up his banner and actually vote.. then I might go along with this wave. But I'd be biting my nails way too much. It would be scary.
It's great to see you on Du Frenchie, here we go again, another election.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)yep! Here we go again!
jillan
(39,451 posts)Perhaps you are confusing belief in God with belief in organized religion?
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)He made it clear. That's why he didn't say the word God once, when speaking of his faith.
He worded artfully enough, because what he said was pretty clear.
He was asked about his faith, and he answered talking about his spirituality,
no mention of God....which is what someone
who doesn't believe in God would say.
It is what it is
jillan
(39,451 posts)And he received high regards from many in the religious community
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)is at your link, but I googled it anyway.
He talked about how I think everyone believes in God in their own ways, ....
which as I said, is an artful dodge.
It's fine, you can think he said something else,
but the Republicans will make sure that he is pinned down more than that, for sure.
jillan
(39,451 posts)food stamps away from children, giving seniors a voucher instead of medicare, I've got mine - so screw you--- and you are telling me that Bernie's message that faith means carrying for each other is not good enough?
With that logic I can only make one assumption. It's not that Bernie is not religious enough for your idea of what voters want, it's that Bernie is not the right religion. What else can this be??
senz
(11,945 posts)more than anyone else does.
It's pretty impressive.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)even if he isn't the nominee.
I'm not sure why they can only go hand in hand.
You can still press for change in same way he is talking about.
It's not like anyone who wins would be king or the queen anyways,
unless its a Republican with both houses of congress.
cali
(114,904 posts)w4rma
(31,700 posts)Notice how Sanders is cutting her leads down, every single day, as more people are exposed to him. Notice how the longer Clinton exposes herself, the LESS people like her.
Clinton supporters need to stop deluding themselves that neoliberalism is, at all, popular.
senz
(11,945 posts)Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
olddots This message was self-deleted by its author.
Vinca
(50,271 posts)If Hillary is the nominee they'll convince the voters she's a criminal. If Bernie's the nominee they'll convince the voters he's a Commie. Meanwhile, voters who don't bother checking things out for themselves will elect a grade A nut from the GOP that we'll have to deal with for 4 years. I've been thinking about what happened this cycle and it's my opinion any Democrat who might have thought of running bowed out to pave the way for Hillary. Bad move.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)From the Article:
I remember reading Josh was a young reporter before he even started "Talking Points Memo." He was full of fire and idealism. When he founded "TPM" it originally was focused on Political Investigative journalism. He had a "Muckraker" feature which featured corruption in Government. I think his caption was "You find Muck and We Have Rakes" (something like that). He even asked for tips from those who felt they had corruption to expose that TPM could investigate.
Through the years his site changed its emphasis. He got married had children and his site became more "establishment journalism." My feeling from all my years reading "TPM" is that Josh identifies with Bernie because he grew up with very little and they have their Jewish background in common--although Josh's mother was not Jewish and Josh, himself, often said he was not particularly religious. His mother died in a tragic car accident when he was very young and his father had different jobs, etc. Josh talked about his growing up experience a lot on "TPM" in the early days and always seemed surprised at what he had achieved. But, he also realizes (through his own experience) that being "radical" doesn't always work out so well when one has to find a place in the "establishment," and being an "investigative journalist" in the current times wasn't going to put food on the Marshall's table or support his kids going forward.
As to Bernie's being "Cut to Pieces:" it stands to reason, that since Bernie has never changed his lifestyle, outgrown his idealism or his basic Democratic Socialist's beliefs, that the Media, Corporate, Military Industrial Complex will not tolerate someone like Bernie to be elected President because they couldn't contol him. And, we can already see this with his lack of endorsements from his fellow Democrats in House and Senate and the Labor Unions, Newspapers and all the others who have endorsed Hillary even before the first Primary. He's already had his first cuts...and they will keep coming.
Sorry to rant on, but just my impression from the years of reading "TPM" and being there from the beginning. I haven't read Josh as much in the past couple of years because he became too "establishment" for me. :-D but, that doesn't mean that I don't appreciate his writing, keen insight about politics and his basic populist leanings which I think he still has ...buried in there, deeply.