Quinnipiac new national poll-Dem race tied! Clinton 44% Bernie 42%

[Robbins]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2321

race tied as clinton leads 48 to 38 with women and bernie leads 48 to 38 with men.

Bernie runs better against republicans

VS trump-Clinton 46% Trump 41% Bernie 49% Trump 39%
VS Cruz-Clinton 45% Cruz 45% Bernie 46% Cruz 42%
Vs Rubio-Rubio 48% Clinton 41% Bernie 43% Rubio 43%

Bernie and rubio the two most popular candiates favorabilty numbers running.

Bloomberg would hurt bernie in GE more than republicans

[merrily]

1. Jaw Drop. Quinnipiac is not usually an outlier, either.

[Robbins]

2. Look at this

Clinton-Dec 61% now 44%-17
Bernie-Dec 30% now 42% +12

GOP-Trump dec 28% now 31%+3
Cruz-dec 24% now 22% -2
Rubio-Dec 12% now 19%+7

[stillwaiting]

3. Holy shit!

I can't imagine what might happen after New Hampshire if Bernie wins fairly big.

Which is why I feel TPTB will do what they need to do with Diebold's Accuvote machines. I hope I'm fucking wrong.

[Robbins]

8. After Iowa i too am worried about them trying to steal it for clinton

but they are much more inept at it than republicans.Iowa was done so inept that it got her basicly a tie.and even newspaper which endorsed clinton is saying something is fishy.

[stillwaiting]

12. It's just so much easier to steal elections on computerized voting machines.

It's been well documented by a number of reputable sources.

I hope we rally to DEMAND paper ballots (with Republicans, moderates, Tea Partiers, whoever) someday soon. Our political opponents don't like our current voting system either. It's such an important issue.

[closeupready]

53. +1000. We need to remain vigilant.

[raindaddy]

57. I think this time around it will be a different story...

If there's any indication that Bernie and the millions of people who supported him are the victims of election fraud there's going to be hell to pay..

Not sure how it would play out, but the Democratic party that's already losing supporters would face a very uncertain future...

[Fawke Em]

44. I think, collectively, most in Anonymous support Bernie.

They'll be watching.

[stillwaiting]

4. I actually LIKE the results of the polling that include Bloomberg.

Bernie is EXCELLENT at getting people to realize the difference between him and Billionaires (and candidates that support billionaires). If he basically ties the Republican now with Bloomberg in the race, he can widen the gap easily after he runs his campaign against them (and Bloomberg if needed).

[morningfog]

5. WOOT!!!!

[AtomicKitten]

6. WOW

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

7. That's gotta smart.

Hillary's probably grinding her teeth nonstop after that poll.

[EdwardBernays]

9. well this is a VERY nice surprise

I hope to god that all SC polling starts to majorly shift as well..

[bec]

43. Me too Edward

I spent last weekend delivering signs to folks in SC, and, there are a neighborhoods in Columbia with a lot of Bernie signs in their yards. I think SC is going to be a lot closer than they think. The grass roots down here is pretty darn strong, and we are working very hard to help elect him.

[EdwardBernays]

45. Good work!

And fingers crossed... painfully crossed.. .ow!

[Admiral Loinpresser]

10. These polls continue to show Bernie is better in the GE.

Better performance in votes and in GOTV. Hillary is the risky candidate, not Bernie.

[Robbins]

15. If GOP establishment is able to get rubio the nomination

then bernie is only hope.he outright beats clinton.She ties cruz while bernie beats him.

Rubio is most dangeras out of 3 leaading gop candiates.he is viewed favorable.someone like clinton can't beat him.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

17. +1 n/t

[Motown_Johnny]

21. Rubio has not really been scrutinized yet.

Trump has had most of the media attention, followed by the Flavor of the Month candidates like Cruz and Carson.

Rubio is a light weight who's numbers can't hold up.

[TeddyR]

32. As a Bernie supporter

It is safe to say that Bernie is the one who has not been scrutinized. I don't expect Hillary's number to any worse than they are now in the GE - minds are made up about Hillary. Not sure how well Bernie will hold up against the Republican attack machine.

[JudyM]

39. You don't think Hillary's staff and keepers are working night and day to find mud to sling at him?

[bklyncowgirl]

48. The Clintons have a pretty good attack machine of their own.

If he can survive that, he can survive the Republicans as Obama did.

[RoccoR5955]

51. He shall survive

As with last night's debate. Bernie came out ahead after Queen Hillary brought out the biggest guns she could.

[thesquanderer]

54. I'd say Rubio has been less scrutinized than Sanders

Look at these numbers:

Sanders viewer favorably by 44%, unfavorably by 35%, leaving 21% who largely haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Rubio viewer favorably by 42%, unfavorably by 28%, leaving 31% who largely haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

The large discrepancy in how many people have no opinion indicates to me that Rubio has received less scrutiny than Sanders.

[tex-wyo-dem]

62. "minds are made up about Hillary."

I don't agree with this. Most Hillary supporters I know support her because they just know Hillary and don't know much about Bernie and assume she will be the nominee. In other words, very soft support.

I've always felt that Hillary's support up to this point has been a mile wide, but an inch deep, and many would abandoned her if presented with a better choice. I think the abandoning of the HMS Clinton has only started.

[jeff47]

65. That's not what "minds are made up" means in this context.

It means people have a firm opinion of Clinton, and Clinton will not be able to change that opinion during the campaign. Whether or not they support her.

Those soft supporters won't be changing their opinion of Clinton, even if they decide Sanders is better.

[tex-wyo-dem]

67. Okay, my bad for misunderstanding the context...

I agree most already have a strong opinion of Hill. But I'll defend my point that many who say they support her do so because they just assume she will be the nominee...hardly an enthusiastic or strong endorsement.

[Motown_Johnny]

70. Compared to Rubio?

I agree that Hillary is on a whole different level as far a this is concerned, but Bernie has seen more scrutiny than Rubio.

[jeff47]

63. So was W.

How'd that turn out?

[chervilant]

16. + a gazillion!

And, I've noticed that some of Hi11ary's supporters are ramping up their Bernie bashing after her dismal showing in Iowa.

[Enthusiast]

34. We knew it all along. No matter how they tried to spin it.

[PonyUp]

11. More popular Bernie gets, the more I fear for him. People in power will do anything to keep it. n/t

[Mother Of Four]

19. Fear him or fear for him? nt

[PonyUp]

24. Oops! Thanks! lol. n/t

[Mother Of Four]

36. Np :p

[Kentonio]

13. Wow, absolutely did not see this coming so soon

[CharlotteVale]

14. K&R

[cali]

18. I'm sorry to say this, but Hillary is not "likable" enough to be elected

I don't know why. I don't know how much is sexism. But the politician she reminds me most immediately of in that regard, is Romney. I absolutely believe that his not being likable enough combined with Obama being very likable, is a major factor in why he lost. They both come off as inauthentic and so far removed from the daily harsh reality of life that so many Americans deal with.

In any case, she may be the most admired woman in America on some abstract and vague way, but that sure doesn't seem to translate into a benefit for her as a candidate.

[elias49]

28. Agreed. Put another way,

I'd much prefer having Bernie Sanders in my home than Hillary Clinton.
I don't think my dogs would like Hillary. And they're Labradors.

[Enthusiast]

35. Pffft!

[url=http://www.freesmileys.org/emoticons.php][img][/img][/url]

[JudyM]

41. She wouldn't go to most of our homes. Betting Bernie would.

[tex-wyo-dem]

64. Agree "likability" is a major factor,

The other big ding against her is trust.

[blackspade]

20. Sweet!

I'd like to see this poll deconstructed.
Is the methodology different from previous ones?

[tomm2thumbs]

22. thanks for the post - amazing news and he hasn't even gotten New Hampshire momentum yet

Assuming he does well there of course, which I hope

[Motown_Johnny]

23. Last night's debate should help Bernie with national numbers.

Even Tweety said so and he is completely in the bag for Hillary.

[firebrand80]

25. Looks like an outlier

Doesn't really match up with anything else we've seen.

On the other hand, Hillary's disposition was markedly different in last nights debate, so that could very well have been in response to her internal polling showing significant movement toward Bernie.

There is probably some movement toward Bernie, or this poll wouldn't have shown such a shift. The question is whether it's as significant as this poll shows, or something less (or more!?). We'll have to wait for more polls to come out to find out.

[jonestonesusa]

60. Trends matter...

The Sanders campaign has been seen sometimes as marginal due to its standing in national polls, and there has been a trend toward reduction of the national gap for some time. The more that both candidates are seen as viable, the more that we can have a real debate about the issues, with the nation and world paying attention. There's an upside for everyone in that scenario.

[angrychair]

66. Quinnipiac is a tier-1 poller

so, even when they are an outlier, it is not a 30 point outlier. The largest margin of error was with the sample of independents, which was 5.59%.

Breakdown of polling demographics and sampling methods: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us02052016_demos_Ust53w.pdf

[Akicita]

69. Movement towards Bernie means MOMENTUM nationally. That is huge and with all of Hillary's

problems with trust, emails, Iraq war vote, sex abuse enabling, Wall Street, and honesty this could be a turning point.

[speaktruthtopower]

26. If this is true

the gap has closed in a hurry, and we have a real contest that will last into the late spring.

[dpatbrown]

33. June

I would be thrilled to see the primary go until June, putting my home state, CA, in the position to decide the winner. Most people out here don't get involved because the decision has already been made. IF it does come, it will be Sanders in a landslide.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

27. Woohoo! Hillary campaign is taking on water... sinking fast. Panic time?

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[Katashi_itto]

29. Inconceivable!! He was only suppose to make 30% TOPS!!

Hes not a real Democrat!! Hes a Socialist!!!

[TBF]

30. Bloomberg is just another bloated billionaire -

it's like running against Romney again. He will not be a factor.

[Betty Karlson]

31. Great news. Thanks for the report and link. eom

[Jarqui]

37. It's good news if other polls can come along and back it up

Sanders support from blacks looks close to Clinton's against the GOP

Sanders has consistently done better with independents than Hillary. Outside of the Dem party, folks do not like Hillary

[Robbins]

38. let's remember

Q was very close to getting iowa results right on dem side.last poll had it bernie 49% clinton 46% with margain of error that was basicly tied and they both got 49%

thing is nomatter how you want to spin it the tie in iowa didn't help her at all.it helped bernie.I also feel this poll will help challenge the notion In GE bernie wouldn't get black support.

If clinton could steal nomination her only chance to win is trump as the gop nominee.with cruz it's looking like 2000 or 2004 race
and cruz has lower negative numbers than she does.

I dismiss idea bernie hasn't been attacked.for awhile now dem establishment and MSNBC has been doing it.

[Jarqui]

46. It's quite an improvement over their last Dec poll that had Clinton +31

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us12222015_Uhkm63g.pdf

It's also not a flimsy pollster like Gravis. Quinnipiac is one of the best in my opinion.

Yes, Bernie hasn't been attacked. But there isn't nearly as much to attack him on. As well, many people don't know him and when they get to know him some, his rises in the polls - which more than offsets his future attacks in these current polls.

Clinton's claim that she's ok with her emails and she's already been vetted were both piles of BS last night. She's going to get hammered in the general election to drive the independents, who already don't like her or trust her, away. Bernie is like Obama in this respect, he's a nice, honest guy. GOP attacking him in that way would backfire - lots of folks would see through it. They have trouble seeing through it with Hillary because those attacks are based on some truth.

[Robbins]

55. Yep

Quinnipiac is often a pollster cited by MSM.of course they are proally going to be ignored.they back in 2008 was one of first to say obama would be strong GE candiate in Pa,Ohio,and Florida.and they were actully one of better pollsters on dem side about iowa.

true republicans haven't been attacking him much but MSNBC especilly Tweety and other dems led by McCaskill have been doing it.

a lot of what clinton says is BS.Independents don't like her.Iowa proved that.while Obama's numbers have taken hit he is still
more liked than Clinton Is.and his negative numbers which now do outnumber fav numbers are still lower than her's and trump.
last number i saw was obama had 46% fav numbers and 48% unfav numbers.

Clinton often is seen even by some dems as talking on both sides.she bashes bernie for his agenda saying he wants to do too much and then she turns around and makes a bunch of promises.

She walked into the progressive arguements.all bernie did was use her own words against her.

Using the well powell and rice defense with emails isn't going to work.even some dems are skeptical of that.

[Jarqui]

56. "Using the well powell and rice defense with emails isn't going to work."

I agree. It could get embarrassing

Since the FBI spoke with Powell and Rice
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/fbi-colin-powell-email-probe-218748

I strongly suspect that they'll probably want to talk with Hillary.

That's not going to play well for her. Why would they need to talk with her if Powell and Rice had cleared everything up? For starters:
- born confidential classified emails from foreigners doesn't appear to have been a problem for Powell & Rice
- emails between the SoS and the president doesn't appear to have been a problem for Powell & Rice
- having an unsecure server at home doesn't appear to have been a problem for Powell & Rice
But the above have additional legal implications.

If I'm an FBI agent, and she's blowing off my efforts on national tv, I might get a little more motivated to make something stick.

That was a high risk position she took last night. No apology or remorse. I'm almost positive before November, that will significantly blow up in her face.

[FloridaBlues]

40. Outlier poll

[cannabis_flower]

50. You hope.

Quinnipiac doesn't have a history of being an outlier. I think the fact is, many people that aren't really into politics really hadn't been paying attention and hadn't really heard of Bernie Sanders until he almost beat Hillary in Iowa.

[Goblinmonger]

52. I'm sure you thought that in December when

Clinton was kicking Sanders' ass in the same poll.

[Renew Deal]

42. Rubio!

And I think he is in many ways their least qualified candidate.

The contrasts between Rubio and Hillary/Bernie are not good. It looks like GHWB vs Clinton.

[Nyan]

47. Yep. Iowa was a momentum for Bernie.

It's quite clear.

[corkhead]

49. What's funny about DU is the "National Polls Don't Matter" meme will now switch teams.

[Duval]

58. K&R! Thank you!! nt

[WillyT]

59. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[Indepatriot]

61. I'd like to dedicate this one to Mrs. Clinton...... from the Sanders Campaign

I wonder what Nate's up to today?

[in_cog_ni_to]

68. Well, would ya look at that?!

Ms. Inevitable, isn't so inevitable anymore!

Go Bernie!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[RiverLover]

71. Not Reuters

Congrats BERNIE!!

[RiverLover]

72. KICK!

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