There should be a more rational way of determining the electability question.
It's becoming more clear to me that one of if not the biggest disagreement between Hillary and Bernie supporters is about electability. Sure, there are others, but almost to the person, H supporters think she can win the GE and B can't, and vice versa.
And the arguments are basically
B: brings enthusiasm, high turnout, youth voters, people who don't like the establishment, he's ahead in GE matchups right now
H: gets more centrists, many people won't vote for a socialist, attacks on her are already built into her polling numbers
And that's where it ends. But it seems to me, there should be a more data-driven way of figuring out who's story is more sound. I'm sure the data is out there, somewhere.
For example, what is the difference in turnout between an inspired youth and a less inspired youth. Not exactly, but roughly, in millions of votes, what's a reasonable number here. And what is a reasonable estimate of centrists that might go for Hillary but not Bernie. How many disaffected Republicans might join Bernie but not Hillary, and conversely how many moderate Republicans might do the opposite.
And, of course, there are a lot more people than just "young", "moderate", and "disaffected", and there are people who fall into more than one category, etc. So this isn't a simple problem. But it is certainly doable, at least to get some estimates. In fact, if they haven't already, as soon as the GE starts, both campaigns will be doing exactly these kinds calculations.
It would seem that one of the data people in the media or academia, who probably have a lot of this data at their disposal, should or maybe already have run some numbers on this. Anyone seen anything like this? Or have any numerical estimates of their own to share?
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