The UMass Lowell Poll language: Clinton SURGES, Iowa has led to a sizeable bump

[Godhumor]

Since DSB already has a post up about the results, I'll focus on the language choices of Josh and his team:

CLINTON SURGES, TRUMP’S LEAD NARROWS AS RACES TIGHTEN

The fifth day of results from the UMass Lowell/7News tracking poll of 1,400 New Hampshire voters who were surveyed about candidates in the Feb. 9 Democratic and Republican primaries include:

Hillary Clinton has again gained on Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary race. She now trails Sanders by 15 points, 55 percent to 40 percent. Clinton is up four points and Sanders is down three points, a net change of 7 percentage points over yesterday’s results, While Sanders still has a double-digit lead, Clinton has closed the gap by 16 points since the first day of results in the UMass Lowell/7NEWS tracking poll, when she trailed Sanders 61 percent to 30 percent. Clinton’s win in Iowa has led to a sizable bump in support among likely Democratic primary voters.
http://www.uml.edu/News/press-releases/2016/TrackingPoll02052016.aspx
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Now, I will say that with daily tracking using a 3 day average, my expectation is that his polls the next few days will settle in at the +13 to +17 range for Bernie, primarily because the last of his really strong pre-debate polling days just rolled off.

[virtualobserver]

1. Bernie still strongly leads 18-64 age group- it is the 65 and older group that has shifted

[Godhumor]

2. Oh, Bernie is going to win NH easily, just not by the massive margins seen a week ago

I don't expect Hillary to be within ten of him after the primary finishes up, but I don't expect a spread of 25 points either.

[virtualobserver]

3. Sure, but I was struck by the fact that some age groups have shifted dramatically

and some not at all.

We will also see the impact of last nights debate on all age groups over the next few days.

It will give both campaigns insight into the impact of television coverage
and the effectiveness of tactics.

[safeinOhio]

4. Don't forget UMass poll

just before Iowa had Trump at 34% and Cruz at 14%,,,

Not all that good at predicting.

[Godhumor]

5. ? Not finding that poll in RCP or Pollster, can you link it for me?

Last edited Fri Feb 5, 2016, 12:47 PM - Edit history (1)

And this is UMass Lowell; they only started polling for this election cycle this week in NH--they haven't done national or IA polls.

[safeinOhio]

6. did a google search for UMass poll before Iowa and found it half way down either the first or second

page. good luck, but it is there.