Hillary Catching Up to Bernie in His Backyard New Hampshire

[ericson00]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/02/05/new-poll-shows-rubio-closing-trump/QpALGuCZ2gAivxLtHAaPAI/story.html

The poll also showed the Democratic contest to be a single-digit race. US Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont leads former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton, 50 percent to 41 percent, with 8 percent undecided.


“Sanders continues to lead thanks to the New Hampshire counties bordering Vermont and his strength among young voters, independents, and men,” said Paleologos. “What makes this race complicated is that the reliability of potential independent voters is directly correlated with whether these voters become drawn into the Republican primary or not.”

[6chars]

1. so if Bernie has a 9% lead but with unreliable voters

Hillary could actually win this thing!

[MoonRiver]

2. I really have not believed this could happen!

But after her stellar performance last night, I think it's possible!

[HERVEPA]

3. How much money would you like to put on that? I'll give you excellent odds.

Poll: Sanders Leads Clinton by 20 Points in New Hampshire

by Mark Murray

PORTSMOUTH, N.H. — Bernie Sanders maintains a significant double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, according to an NBC News/Wall Street/Marist poll conducted after Clinton's narrow apparent win in Monday's Iowa caucuses.

[riversedge]

6. I prefer to call them undecided voters

[BlueCaliDem]

4. I'll take a single digit loss as a win! Because I don't see NH going to Hillary's column.

And I really don't care since NH hasn't picked a Democratic president in, what, forever? Okay, not since Carter in 1980, which is pretty much forever.

Democrats

Iowa has been slightly better than New Hampshire at picking nominees on Democratic side. In fact, since 1976:

— A whopping six eventual nominees have won Iowa, including the last three (Barack Obama, John Kerry and Al Gore).

— Two Iowa Democratic winners have become president — Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama.

New Hampshire has picked:

— Five nominees over that same time ...

— Just one became president — Carter.

[Jarqui]

5. Graph of poll of polls doesn't look like a lot of ground gained

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

[MoonRiver]

7. There are averages and there are trends.

The trend is looking good for Hillary.

[Jarqui]

8. You mean the outlier ...

The trend even with the outlier is a double digit win by Bernie.

Let's talk trend though:
Dec 1 Clinton +4.3 = > Feb 4 Sanders +17.6
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

Look at the lines on the graph again:
Sanders is on a pretty steady rise up from Dec 1 40.7% to now 55.3%
Clinton is on a pretty steady decline down from Dec 1 45.0% to now 37.7%

See the response on google to the debate? Not good for the inevitable one.

I'm sure the Clinton campaign will lean on the pollsters they can to try to stop the impression of a bad slide and try for the slipperiest demographics they can get away with to prop her up. But it's not looking very good for her in NH

[MoonRiver]

9. Sanders has gone down from +31 to +9.

nuff said

[Jarqui]

10. Nope. Not in the poll of polls

only to from one high poll to your outlier

Show us where his poll of polls was ever +31
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

You can't because it never was.

Most people know that a poll of polls is much more likely to produce a more accurate result over cherry picking your favorite poll.

Or I could easily say, right after Sanders +9 came out, Clinton lost -7 with the ARG poll

See how that works? No one is going to buy that

[Jarqui]

11. 538 weighs in

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-hampshire-week/

The reason both Democratic candidates appear to be phoning it in is clear: Sanders has a tremendous advantage in New Hampshire, and neither candidate has much to gain by expending additional resources here. In fact, both of our primary forecasts put Sanders’s chances of winning at greater than 99 percent.

They're both leaving the state because it's essentially over.

Look at Hillary's schedule
http://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
She's tossed in the towel on NH

Her time is better spent getting to those Wall Street fundraisers than it is trying to get votes in NH

[Attorney in Texas]

12. Maybe Clinton can make NH as close as Iowa. I doubt it, but maybe.