Prediction: Bernie will earn more delegates than Clinton in Nevada

[CoffeeCat]

In 2007, Obama was behind by 26 points against Clinton in Nevada--about a month before the Nevada caucuses. Despite Obama's 26 point deficit, he went on to win delegates in Nevada, than Clinton.

Currently, Bernie is behind Clinton in Nevada by 19, according to Real Clear Politics averages of the polls. Bernie is 7 points ahead of where Obama was, at this point in the process.

Am I saying that Bernie is Obama? NO. I'm saying that Bernie is in a better position than Obama going into Nevada. He can win more delegates.

Other glimmers for Bernie: Bernie will no doubt win in New Hampshire. That will bring him a windfall of momentum going into the Nevada race. Also, Clinton devoted most of her resources to winning Iowa. Bernie has made many appearances in Nevada and has been speaking there. He's got 10 offices in Nevada; Clinton 7. Nevada is a caucus state and Bernie does very well in caucuses.

The current state of the race favors Bernie as well. He's closing the gap in national polls and he's gaining with women. His message is resonating and Clinton no longer has her "inevitability" meme to carry. Iowa destroyed that Clinton meme and positioned Sanders as a formidable opponent. Clinton is struggling to hold onto support, while Bernie is gaining.

Things change very, very fast after New Hampshire and in the 11 days before Nevada--especially if you're coming out of NH with a win.

My money is on Bernie winning more delegates in Nevada than Clinton.

[Punkingal]

1. 3 Hispanic newspapers have endorsed Bernie in Nevada. That is helpful.

[Attorney in Texas]

2. Almost zero polling in Nevada. The only live phone poll (Sanders 34%, Clinton 50%) was in October.

All of the other polling in Nevada has been robo-calls polls by Gravis and by Morning Consult's Campaign for Sustainable Rx Pricing, which probably have at least a 10% house effect boosting Clinton.

If Nevada has seen the same tightening in the race that has occurred nationally since the last reliable poll in early October, the race in Nevada should be VERY close.

BEWARE -- we are about to see a FLOOD of crappy robo-call polls in Nevada which will falsely imply an inaccurate picture of the actual levels of support.

It would be nice for Sanders to enter into South Carolina and Super Tuesday with a tie in Iowa, a win in New Hampshire, and either another tie or win in Nevada.

Clinton's background as a boardmember of union-busting WalMart and her private support and off-and-on public flip floppery on anti-labor trade deals should cost her in Nevada -- we'll see.

[restorefreedom]

3. any nevada folks here? i wonder how their,process is

will they have enough forms? will there be coin tosses? who is the nevada party chair?

[HooptieWagon]

4. I think he'll do well in Nevada.

It'll be close either way. No doubt the campaign will have learned from Iowa caucus, and will be better prepared for Clinton shenanigans. And I think Latinos are warming up to him quicker than AAs at this point.
SC will be tough, and he has to come out of Super Tuesday with some delegates. After that it's pretty clear sailing. He'll do well in the northeast, rustbelt, and west coast.

[Gregorian]

5. Two Senators, both relatively unknown.

I think it's a good comparison. Sanders' additional 21 years in Congress over Obama is a real plus in terms of inspiring confidence in voters.

You sum up how I feel this is playing out. You have a way of putting it into words that's really a pleasure to read.

This is fun and hectic.