2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTook President Obama everything he had to defeat HRC while Bernie romps to the nomination-why?
Repost since I needed to change some stuff:
I was the biggest Obama '08 fan. I remember being so frustrated. I thought that Barack had it won after his Iowa romp and the early N.H. polling showing him up by 10-20 points after his Iowa 8-point win but HRC kept coming back. She won New Hampshire totally unexpectedly and then won Nevada and was so resilient. I mean even Teddy, Caroline and Patrick Kennedy throwing their support to Barack after South Carolina did not dent Hillary's lead in the national polls and she even won Mass. that year. I really do think that it was the JRE (John Edwards) dropout that coalesced those 2 blocks of voters into 1 block just before Super Tuesday that helped Barack win a delegate majority and more states on Super Tuesday rather than the Kennedy endorsements. I mean, people that year were bent on Hillary. The national polls moved not at all in response to the Kennedy endorsement and only moved really once John Edward's support was divvied up.
Then, Barack won 11 primaries in a row but Hillary still survived and romped to victory in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas (Barack Obama led TX but then lost the lead in the end to Hillary but still won more delegates since he won the caucus portion of the Texas/Ohio primary) but still lost the primary and then PA was a Hillary landslide and it took the unexpectedly good results for Barack in Indiana/North Carolina in May before Hillary was finally vanquished. So resilient. In large part, she lasted as long as she possibly could because women in New Hampshire rallied to her side. Women in New Hampshire saved H.R.C in 2008.
This time, the exit polls show women resoundingly feeling the Bern and not interested in what HRC has for sale in N.H.
This time, however, all demographic groups in the Democratic Party have overwhelmingly joined The Bern and are abandoning Hillary. I mean this primary race is O-V-E-R. Bernie's numbers are like he's an incumbent president running in a re-election primary really.
So, my questions are:
1. Is the disgust at the direction of the country, congress, and economic inequality so great that this is the reason why Bernie Sanders has had a much easier time disposing of Hillary Clinton than Barack did in 2008 with the biggest New Hampshire Primary victory ever?
2. What strengths does Bernie have in putting Hillary away so early this time that Barack didn't have in 2008?
3. Is the Bernie phenomenon even stronger than the 2008 Obama "skinny black kid with a strange name our time has come, yes we can" campaign?
4. Why is Hillary Clinton's gender not the asset for her in 2016 that it was in 2008?
Sorry, I'm just in awe. I remember wanting Barack to wrap up the nomination from like January of that year after Iowa but I had to wait until JUNE while Bernie has it wrapped up a week into the process.
I mean, I know you're going to jump me for counting chickens but Bern has all demographic groups except over 65 wrapped up...so..., I think it's pretty clear he'll win.
NanceGreggs
(27,817 posts)BS wins ONE out of two states so far, and he's "romping to the nomination"?
"Bernie Sanders has had a much easier time disposing of Hillary Clinton ... Bernie had "put Hillary away" so early this time ... Bernie has it "wrapped up" a week into the process."
You DO know that we're only two states into the primary process, and HRC and BS have each won ONE of the two?
"... all demographic groups in the Democratic Party have overwhelmingly joined The Bern and are abandoning Hillary."
In what universe? I guess you haven't seen the polls for the remaining primary states where HRC is FAR ahead of Bernie.
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)The operating system was just upgraded and will no longer recognize her device.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,436 posts)"Romping his way to the nomination"?! He lost/tied in Iowa.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)And there wasn't enough butter on the popcorn the first time, so people went a different route again this time.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)That will take a lot more states and a lot more work. Amazing win last night, and it will no doubt help us, but it's not over yet.
cali
(114,904 posts)jberryhill
(62,444 posts)This primary is far from over.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)Sanders looks to have many tough contests ahead. On what planet would this be a "romp"?
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Bernie has nothing "wrapped up".