2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAfter Sanders' Big Win in NH, Establishment Figures Want to Scare You with Superdelegates
This is an excellent piece on the Superdelegate issue and hope it allays a few of the fears I've seen expressed. Here is just a part of it:
(snip)
Q: From everything youve told me so far, I cant understand why youre calling Superdelegate votes irrelevant. It seems to me like they have the same voting power as a normal delegate, and this puts Sanders in a tremendous hole from the word go.
A: Heres why it doesnt matter: Superdelegates have never decided a Democratic nomination. It would be insane, even by the corrupt standards of the Democratic National Committee, if a small group of party elites went against the will of the people to choose the presidential nominee.
This has already been an incredibly tense election, and Sanders voters are already expressing their unwillingness to vote for Clinton in the general election. When you look at the astounding numbers from Iowa and New Hampshire, where more than 80 percent of young voters have chosen Sanders over Clinton, regardless of gender, its clear that Clinton already finds herself in a very tenuous position for the general election. It will be tough to motivate young supporters, but any hint that Bernie was screwed by the establishment will result in total abandonment.
Democrats win when turnout is high, and if the DNC decides to go against the will of the people and force Clinton down the electorates throat, theyd be committing political suicide.
The important thing to know here is that Superdelegates are merely pledged to a candidate. We know who they support because theyve stated it publicly, or been asked by journalists. They are not committed, and can change at any time. If Bernie Sanders wins the popular vote, he will be the nominee. End of story.
Q: But its not the end of the story, is it? Hasnt the DNC pulled some shady shit already?
A: Oh yeah. They totally rigged the debate schedule to limit Sanders exposure, and now that hes gaining ground on Clinton, theyre desperate to add more. Sanders probably won the popular vote in Iowa, but the party elite there are refusing to release popular vote totals, even though thats exactly what they did in 2008. Its been an embarrassment of Clinton protectionism from the very beginning.
However, that doesnt mean theyll overthrow the will of the people when it comes to the presidential nomination. Assuming Sanders wins the popular vote nationwide, and assuming the Superdelegates put Clinton over the top, lets consider the consequences:
1. Sanders supporters abandon Clinton completely, cutting off a huge portion of her base.
2. Massive protests at the convention, and a party split in half.
3. Republicans have the easiest attack in presidential election history: Her own party didnt even want her!
4. The perception that Clinton is a dishonest politician grows wings, and even if people are reluctant to vote for the GOP nominee, an independent like Bloomberg could strip away an awful lot of votes.
All of this spells disaster for the Democrats. It may not be too corrupt for the DNC to imaginetheyve got good imaginationsbut its too transparent to execute. The winner of the delegate count from state primaries and caucuses will win the nomination, and the Superdelegates will fall in line. Just as they have in every single election since the system was implemented. (Including in 2008, when this same concern was raisedwould Superdelegates cost Obama the nomination?)
Even the Democratic power structure isnt so short-sighted that it would cut off its nose to spite its face.
(Much more)
http://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2016/02/after-sanders-big-win-in-new-hampshire-establishme.html
jfern
(5,204 posts)and it was unnecessary then as it is now. I'm hoping this explains things better to those who may be new to the primary scene. That's who they're trying to discourage from voting.
DJ13
(23,671 posts)I'm not so sure.
First off, this is definitely Clinton's last chance.
Second, the party itself is so wedded to the Third Way conservative agenda (and the big money they all get from corporate donors) they may be willing to throw the party into chaos just to prevent Bernie from being the nominee.
On top of that we all know that Trump is a personal friend of the Clintons, theres a (possibly slim) chance his run could be an unserious feint to insure Hillary goes nearly unchallenged in the GE.
DWS is the wildcard, and I dont think she can be trusted not to put Hillary above the party.
amborin
(16,631 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)Pity.
earthshine
(1,642 posts)So, why did the Clintons go through so much trouble to court them in advance of these primaries?
The Democratic Party is in need of severe shakeup. Doesn't seem very democratic to me.
mgmaggiemg
(869 posts)as tom hanks said...in a league of their own...there is no crying in baseball
gyroscope
(1,443 posts)in violation of the 15th amendment.
in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)Their gravy train would be saved and their corruption wouldn't be exposed.
They have only 29% support as it is. I don't think they'd hesitate to install Clinton at the expense of their failing party. The party is finished anyway (unless Bernie is the nominee).
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE