Polls and Predictions – Democratic Primaries through March 1st

[CajunBlazer]

Last edited Fri Feb 26, 2016, 11:54 PM - Edit history (1)

The following are the results of the latest polls (source: realclearpolitics.com) and the projections of Nate Silver (source fivethirtyeight.com) for the Democratic primaries scheduled for 2/27/16 (South Carolina) and the twelve primaries scheduled for 3/1/16.


Link: Polls and Predictions – Democratic Primaries through March 1st

[CajunBlazer]

1. Kick

[Beacool]

2. If Nate Silver's is correct, it's going to be a banner day for Hillary.

He has no predictions yet for Alabama, Colorado and Minnesota, but Hillary is ahead in the polls in all three. The only state that he has predicted with certainty that will go to Sanders is VT. There are no polls on American Samoa, but they will only send 10 delegates.

[Tiggeroshii]

3. His prediction if they are tied in the national polls is that Bernie will take 7 states out of 12

He is slightly ahead in the national average

[Godhumor]

4. Not according to 538

You might want to take a look at the 538 aggregation of national numbers.

[CajunBlazer]

5. Link: 538 National Democratic Primary Polls

You're badly mistaken.

And currently according to FiveThirtyEight.com

Clinton 49.6% Sanders 39.0% - Clinton +10.6%

To see the aggregation of national polls on Nate Silver's website click on the link below:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/national-primary-polls/democratic/

[Tiggeroshii]

8. well shoot.

Looks like you are right. I'll take your polling aggregate and raise you an actual super Tuesday win(as in a majority of delegates, not states). Loser owes winner 538 random emojis as an OP

[CajunBlazer]

13. So you you are going to bet me that Bernie takes Vermont?

No deal!

[Tiggeroshii]

14. Bwaaha noo

But I will bet he takes it with no less than 90% of the vote! and that he takes a majority of all pledged delegates up on super Tuesday

[CajunBlazer]

15. I'm on for second part

Last edited Sat Feb 27, 2016, 06:52 PM - Edit history (1)

I'm on for second part: He (Bernie) takes a majority of all pledged delegates up on super Tuesday. You see I only bet on sure things, or those that have at least a 95% chance of happening. The chances of Hillary of winning at least two delegates more than Bernie in SC are in that range.

[Tiggeroshii]

16. You're on!

[CajunBlazer]

17. You lose

[Tiggeroshii]

18. ... It's not Tuesday yet

[CajunBlazer]

19. Okay, guess I am reading the writing on the wall yet invisible to you

[MaggieD]

12. I'm looking forward to it

[CajunBlazer]

6. Kick for visability

[Persondem]

7. Here's hoping Silver's prediction are golden. K & R nt

[zappaman]

9. Looks like we have a dead heat on our hands!

#berniemath

[CajunBlazer]

10. I hope your kidding

[MaggieD]

11. Well if you use #berniemath anything is possible

[LexVegas]

20. Virtual tie! nt