Holy crap! Odds of Clinton nomination now at 93%!

[Godhumor]

Nominee:
HRC - 93%
Sanders - 7%

President:
HRC - 58%
Trump - 24%
Rubio - 12%
Sanders - 4%

And for a bonus all odds of 90% or better for either candidate in upcoming primaries:

Clinton:
South Carolina - 99%
Alabama - 98%
Arkansas - 98%
Georgia - 98%
Tennessee - 96%
Texas - 98%
Virginia - 96%
Louisiana - 96%

Sanders:
Vermont - 99%

http://predictwise.com

[LexVegas]

1. Thats even odds! OMG!!!! nt

[KingFlorez]

2. "It's virtual tie!!!!"

[Stallion]

55. So You Say There's Chance!

nm

[NurseJackie]

3. A virtual tie. She's totally unelectable. Nobody likes her!

and

[LexVegas]

4. Speeches! Wall Street! nt

[NurseJackie]

8. Oligarchs! Banksters! Corporatist!!

She can't be trusted!

[vdogg]

53. Scriptghazi!!!!11!1!1!1

[morningfog]

17. 52-51, pledged delegates. The only number that matters.

[brooklynite]

35. ...until tomorrow, right?

[morningfog]

38. The number won't be 52-51 tomorrow, you are correct.

That count will still be the only one that matters. HIllary will take the lead, no doubt about it. But, the race is, and will be then still, far from over.

[Fawke Em]

73. Independents don't like her.

She will lose the general election.

You couldn't pay anyone I know to vote for her. I literally know NO ONE who will vote for her and all my friends are liberal.

[daleanime]

78. That won't be a problem for them until after the election....

when, if she doesn't win, it will be our fault some how.

All we can do is work and hope she doesn't make it out of the primary.

[Fawke Em]

85. I've already prepped my family.

The next two weeks will be BRUTAL for Bernie in the media. He'll lose in the South, where I live, but I've started pointing out to my Bernie friends and family that it really shouldn't matter. While delegates are split, Electoral College votes aren't and no Democrat is going to win the vast majority of Southern states in the general. Just pick up some delegates and move on. This will pass.

Once the election goes North and West, Bernie will pull back up. Just bear down, don't get discouraged and keep fighting.

[redstateblues]

79. So your friends are all in with Trump in the GE?

[Fawke Em]

84. No. They're LIBERAL.

Most will vote Green. There may be a few who vote for her, but more will just give up on the two-party system as most liberals are.

[wyldwolf]

5. BERNIE got more VOTES than anyone in NEW HAMPSHIRE EVER!

Doesn't that mean he wins the nomination??

[yawnmaster]

56. He can be president of New Hampshire! eom

[Stallion]

57. Dorothy-We Aren't in New Hampshire Any More

nm

[Lucinda]

6. Nice! Thankie.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. What do you think the odds wiil be after her virtual sweep on super Tuesday?

[Godhumor]

10. 95%+ March 2, 98 or 99% on March 16 n/t

[morningfog]

20. What do you consider a virtual sweep? How many states? Total delegate breakdown?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I am out the door...

If it was a football game I suspect it would be on the magnitude of The Chicago Bears Super Bowl XX win.

[morningfog]

29. So, 4 to 1 on delegate count? 678-169?

If Hillary walks away with 4 delegates for every 1 of Bernie's on Super Tuesday, that would be a virtual sweep, I agree.

[Godhumor]

43. Considering anything above a 90 spread will be virtually impossible for Bernie to make up

I'm going to say that current projections for SC, ST and beyond more than qualify for a virtual sweep as things stand now.

[MaggieD]

47. That's what they don't get

Bernie has no upcoming blow outs to make up for what is going to happen in the next 10 days. None. It is essentially over for him after that. Whether he drops out or not. Thats why he only hired people through Mid March.

[Fawke Em]

74. Um... Vermont.

[MaggieD]

80. Vermont has 16 delegates up for grabs

Texas alone has 222. Yeah, enjoy Vermont.

[Fawke Em]

90. She won't win them all.

Duh.

[stonecutter357]

9. K&R!

[restorefreedom]

11. odds of ever being president: zero. nt

[casperthegm]

12. I thought the zero was the odds of releasing the transcripts?

Wonder what her odds would be if the ongoing FBI investigation results in and indictment.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Civics- the FBI investigates. The DOJ prosecutes.

There will be no indictment and the GOP wet dream will remain just that.

[casperthegm]

26. Agreed -> investigation leads to indictment (via the DOJ)

Unless you know someone within the FBI or DOJ you can't make that claim. Well, you can, but you have no basis for it. The odds may be against it- I really don't know. Does anyone really? But considering how Sanders has shown better judgement on every topic of debate I'm hoping that people will realize that it's too risky to take a chance on Clinton and vote for the candidate with the better record.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. I have no animus toward Senator Sanders.

I can say with reasonable certainty that it is highly unlikely Secretary Clinton will be indicted...

This is the way I see it... Almost every Democratic former prosecutor says she won't be indicted...Almost every Republican former prosecutor wants to hang her...Who controls the DOJ?

[casperthegm]

50. glad to hear that

I wish I could say the same for HRC. Guess you are more forgiving than I am, so a tip of the hat to you in that regard.

I see your point regarding the current state of the DOJ, though I don't know if I'd call that an unbiased position on their part if politics played a role in what "should" be a unbiased inquiry. I suppose I am too idealistic when it comes to the law. Thanks for the conversation.

[vdogg]

54. No way in hell Loretta Lynch indicts the democratic nominee

The justice department is an independent agency, but she still serves at the pleasure of the president. I don't think Hillary has done anything indictable anyway, as the emails were classified after the fact, but this is the reality of the situation.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Respectfully, sir or madame, that's not what the data indicates

President:
HRC - 58%
Trump - 24%
Rubio - 12%
Sanders - 4%

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

[restorefreedom]

24. hi dsb, i don't tend to go to the predictive markets

who have a vested interest in maintining status quo, for my info

but that might just be me.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Okey dokey, my fiend.

[restorefreedom]

34. trump or sanders will be the president

so we will need lots of

[Godhumor]

14. Or 58%...vs 4% for Bernie n/t

[restorefreedom]

28. no way she is getting past trump

if she even manages to become nom, which is questionable

[MaggieD]

48. Trump has a 60% disapproval rating

She'll get by him just fine.

[restorefreedom]

52. and almost everyone in america thinks

hillary is an opoortunistic liar who favors wall st.

get used to saying "president trump"

[MaggieD]

61. Actually, no - her approval rating is about 13% higher than Trump's

[restorefreedom]

66. among dems, not indys. most indys will not vote for her. nt

[MaggieD]

68. Sure they will

Do you think that trump disapproval rating of 60% doesn't include independents?

[restorefreedom]

71. it might. but in a very strong antiestablishment year,

with one candidate anti E and one candidate the E personified, if their negatives cancel each other out, which one has the edge?

also, as many have pointed out, turnout on dem side is not super high, while the repubs are setting records for turnout.

even with all other things being equal, THAT is what is going to destroy the election for the dems.

turnout.

[grossproffit]

62. She'll crush him.

[restorefreedom]

67. alrighty. nt

[wyldwolf]

18. 'progresssiiivvesss' have their fingers crossed.

[morningfog]

21. Doesn't HIllary consider herself a progressive? Do you?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Progressivism and pragmatism aren't mutually exclusive

Progressivism and pragmatism aren't mutually exclusive and a prudent person wouldn't pit one against the other.

I am an utopian who likes to get things done.

[morningfog]

36. That poster has a habit of denigrated and questioning progressives, as though they are not one.

Seeking clarification.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. I am going to be late...

For reference I pull -7s on the Political Compass.. . That puts me to the left of Nelson Mandela and the Dalai Lama. However I take man as he is and not how I would like him to be. That's where the pragmatism kicks in...


wyldwolf will be wlydwolf...

[wyldwolf]

33. yes, just not "progressive" (see my sig line)

[morningfog]

44. No true Scotsman.

[restorefreedom]

31. she will do herself in. no finger crossing required

trump or sanders will be the next president

[LexVegas]

19. Thats a virtual tie!!! ZOMG!! nt

[draa]

46. So much this.

She has succeeded in doing one thing though. She drove more people away from the Democratic Party than any other person in history.

If Clinton is the nominee then turnout this year will make 2014 midterms look like a Democratic revolution by comparison.

[restorefreedom]

51. true, and very very sad. nt

[mythology]

64. Assuming that's true

What does it say that Sanders is losing to her even with an electorate that is more favorable to Sanders than the GE will be?

[Fawke Em]

77. That's not true.

In a general election, Sanders would fare better because Independents like him. They don't like her. She's really only popular in the Democratic Party and, even then, she has a challenger in Bernie - maybe not in the South, but the South doesn't vote Dem in a general elections anyway.

The point is that she will really only have about 60-70 percent of 30 percent of the electorate and you can't win an election that way.

[draa]

86. Is it any wonder.

From the very beginning he's be marginalized by the DNC and the Democratic Party in general. They've done every thing in their power to keep his message from getting out. That's not conspiracy or hyperbole either. Just look at the string of lies about Sanders coming from that party. That's all the proof you need.

He was also unknown by all but the most rabid political followers when he entered the race. That means where Clinton has had 25+ years for people to know her, Sanders had about 9 months. And look where he's at in just that short time.

It's not that he's losing because of his message it's just that he's a relative unknown. And for what it's worth, regardless of the state to state polls, Sanders is actually leading her in much of the national polling we've seen lately so he's not really losing. In fact, he's right where Obama was in 2008 as far as polling trajectory. If Super Tuesday was that important the primary in 2008 wouldn't have went to June. Sanders will be fine.

[Fawke Em]

76. Yep. If she's the nominee, I'm gone.

46 years old an voted for Democrats since I was 18 - and that was for Dukakis!!!

Granted, I never had to register with the party to vote since I'm in a open primary, but it will seem odd to vote Green in a national presidential election.

[Beacool]

82. Really?

[restorefreedom]

83. just my opinion, but yeah, really. nt

[MaggieD]

23. But what about the online polls??!?

They said he was winning in all 50 states. Damn, I feel misled now.

[whatchamacallit]

30. Hmm... if the race-fixing bookies think so

We better quit right now.

[taught_me_patience]

75. Race fixing bookies?

Wtf...now I've heard it all.

[Herman4747]

32. Bewildering it is why Godhumor thinks that

the people who determine the odds at Predictwise are experts on American elections. These same people are betting on the Academy Awards too!!!
Are they scholars, Godhumor? If so, what universities are they associated with? Are they historians? Are they statisticians? Or are they instead ordinary "punters" as the British would say?

[Godhumor]

45. Still don't think you quite get how PredictWise works

They're not being on anything. They're aggregating predictive markets and reporting results. That includes predictive markets for politics, sports and award shows, which are all separate marketplaces.

[Herman4747]

49. And what they're aggregating is a bunch of garbage!!

Actor X has a 43% chance of winning the Best Actor Award? Come on!
Please, for your own integrity, NO MORE PREDICTWISE!

[Sinistrous]

39. I'm sure this makes The Donald estatic.

His Yahoos plus the rabid repug Hillery haters plus disillusioned real Democrats not voting will weave a red carpet for him straight into the White House.

[Godhumor]

42. Predictive Market Traders give Trump a 24% chance vs Bernie's of 4%

Hillary, on the other hand, is higher than every other candidate combined at 58%

[Lil Missy]

40. On DU, that means Sanders is clearly the frontrunner!

Wait, wut?

[Impedimentus]

58. NOT "HOLY CRAP", JUST CRAP

Yes, just more polls and betting crap. Will the poster place a $10,000 bet with a bookie on this ? Hah.

[Stallion]

59. Has Any One Informed H.A. (Ha! Ha!) Goodman of this Development?

sure would like to hear his prognostication before I can be sure

[Alfresco]

60. ...

[madfloridian]

63. Why even have primaries or elections anymore.

Just like the predictors and pollsters pick out the most likely to win and go from there??

[oasis]

65. Wake up and smell the coffee gang.

Hillary's the One.

[hifiguy]

69. If so, we are doomed.

Prepare for a Goldwater/McGovern style shellacking in November.

[zappaman]

70. Looks like its neck and neck to me.

#berniemath

[Number23]

72. K&R

[Loudestlib]

81. An aggregate of betting markets? Well, we all know gamblers never lose.

Wasted my time

[dchill]

87. Wonder what the odds are...

That HRC makes it to the convention before being forced into dropping out. Is there a poll on that?

Didn't think so.

[great white snark]

88. Uh oh-release more transcript OP's!

[AZ Progressive]

89. "Get in line Bernie supporters, dammit!"

"Give up Bernie supporters, the house will win!"